Southern field close to flipping?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

44 minuten geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei:

Yes, exactly; that's essentially exactly what I was getting at earlier, i.e. here:

From what I understood, this claim is what Patrick contests, i.e. that it doesn't serve as a good predictor according to him, so I'd be interested to know what flaws he's found.

See above and give comments…

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Important update

the Southern polar field flipped from -3 till +5 on August 8!

This means the Southern field is at it highest strength… we only need strong sunspots…

[MinYoongi]

16 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Important update

the Southern polar field flipped from -3 till +5 on August 8!

This means the Southern field is at it highest strength… we only need strong sunspots…

How often do they flip?

Is this the reason the southern hemisphere is more active now?

Has the north previously flipped too because it was more active than the south? 

[3gMike]

44 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

How often do they flip?

Is this the reason the southern hemisphere is more active now?

Has the north previously flipped too because it was more active than the south? 

You can see the source of the data here http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html#latest.

If you scan back through the data you can see that the polar fields sometimes flip multiple times before taking up their new value around cycle maximum.

The northern pole reduced in strength back in March this year but it has not changed polarity since Dec 2014

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, 3gMike said:

You can see the source of the data here http://wso.stanford.edu/Polar.html#latest.

If you scan back through the data you can see that the polar fields sometimes flip multiple times before taking up their new value around cycle maximum.

The northern pole reduced in strength back in March this year but it has not changed polarity since Dec 2014

And the south did some flippings already?

[3gMike]

52 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

And the south did some flippings already?

The flip on 8th August is the first flip since May 2013

[MinYoongi]

39 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

The flip on 8th August is the first flip since May 2013

is that normal in this phase of the cycle? Does it mean the southern hemisphare gets more active now?

[Sam Warfel]

The northern hemisphere is the one that needs the activity

[MinYoongi]

55 minutes ago, Orneno said:

The northern hemisphere is the one that needs the activity

may i ask why? im so new to all this.

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

may i ask why? im so new to all this.

I just meant that it seems like it’s been the quieter one a lot of the time for the past 6 months or so, so it seems like it ought to catch up

Just now, Archmonoth said:

Same question, what need is there? To echo MinYoogi, is there a change in activity when the flip happens?

Just what I said above 

[Archmonoth]

7 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

the Southern polar field flipped from -3 till +5 on August 8!

I see, very cool, and more solid than the speculation than the -3 flip and flip back from your previous post. 

 

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

It just seemed like it had been underperforming compared to the south, and one would expect them to be the same on longer-term averages at least 

Thank you, I was wondering if there was a mechanism or concept I was missing. 

Edited September 2, 2022 by Archmonoth

[Sam Warfel]

1 minute ago, Archmonoth said:

I don't know either

It just seemed like it had been underperforming compared to the south, and one would expect them to be the same on longer-term averages at least 

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, Orneno said:

It just seemed like it had been underperforming compared to the south, and one would expect them to be the same on longer-term averages at least 

Was just now thinking that we probably will see a double solar max this cycle. 

[MinYoongi]

28 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Was just now thinking that we probably will see a double solar max this cycle. 

A double peak is not rare at all if i remember correctly. But i do think its a bit early to call that.

[Capricopia]

 

Back in July the WSO Computed "Tilt Angle" of the Heliospheric Current Sheet has just shot up over 70 in the classic model.  Typically solar max is within 1 or 2 years.
Another sign that we are heading towards an early solar max combined with the lower latitude of sunspots.

[hamateur 1953]

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

A double peak is not rare at all if i remember correctly. But i do think its a bit early to call that.

Indeed, it isn’t that rare.  Part of what makes these observations so intriguing to us. As a Ham I try to anticipate the curve and await solar max with awe at worldwide communication. As a normal human I love the descent, because that’s when the real fireworks begin!! 😍

[3gMike]

On 9/1/2022 at 7:41 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Important update

the Southern polar field flipped from -3 till +5 on August 8!

This means the Southern field is at it highest strength… we only need strong sunspots…

Patrick,

I have marked up images for cycles 21 to 24 to show at which point the northern and southern polar fields flipped. There seems to be significant differences between cycles. I can see a possible link between flips and number of spots, but it is not particularly clear what the recent flip means for cycle 25

https://gyazo.com/cc5f56d9eaffe2a4d3fba6991b3f72eb

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

3 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

Patrick,

I have marked up images for cycles 21 to 24 to show at which point the northern and southern polar fields flipped. There seems to be significant differences between cycles. I can see a possible link between flips and number of spots, but it is not particularly clear what the recent flip means for cycle 25

https://gyazo.com/cc5f56d9eaffe2a4d3fba6991b3f72eb

 

Simple

When the South and the North have + or - at the same time, we see the HIGHEST SUNSPOT ACTIVITY.

We can write a paper

Reversed unfiltered polar field strength related to the highest sunspot activity.

Any other co-authors interested? Fluent speaking English writers needed. No diploma needed. Just researchers.

We need pics and tables and text.

They may not be published here for copyright, but temporarily somewhere else.

 

 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

this article is very interesting…
Asymmetric Distribution of the Solar Photospheric Magnetic-Field Values - IOPscience


https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ac106e/meta

[3gMike]

6 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

When the South and the North have + or - at the same time, we see the HIGHEST SUNSPOT ACTIVITY.

O.K. let us look at Cycle 24. There is an increase in activity at the first flip of Northern pole, and on the only flip of the Southern pole, but the decrease in activity started before the final flip of the North pole. Surely you would have expected the decrease to be coincident with that final flip because the poles would then be opposite polarities.

Also, when looking at other cycles it is clear that the time period between first and last flip varies considerably, so the flip seen now in Cycle 25 really tells us nothing about how long it will persist, or how long it will be before the cycle reaches maximum.

[Jesterface23]

27 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Also, when looking at other cycles it is clear that the time period between first and last flip varies considerably, so the flip seen now in Cycle 25 really tells us nothing about how long it will persist, or how long it will be before the cycle reaches maximum.

It may or may not flip back and forth for an unknown amount of time, but it seems like a good sign for years to come. We certainly have a ways to go until we reach solar maximum.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

49 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei:

O.K. let us look at Cycle 24. There is an increase in activity at the first flip of Northern pole, and on the only flip of the Southern pole, but the decrease in activity started before the final flip of the North pole. Surely you would have expected the decrease to be coincident with that final flip because the poles would then be opposite polarities.

Also, when looking at other cycles it is clear that the time period between first and last flip varies considerably, so the flip seen now in Cycle 25 really tells us nothing about how long it will persist, or how long it will be before the cycle reaches maximum.

You need to look at the HIGHEST VALUE. For instance the highest value on 23 September 1979 is 68 coinciding with the highest sunspot activity. You need to check this for all cycles. Needs some sleuthing…

24 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

It may or may not flip back and forth for an unknown amount of time, but it seems like a good sign for years to come. We certainly have a ways to go until we reach solar maximum.

Solar max is before the end of 2023….  See several previous posts.

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Solar max is before the end of 2023….  See several previous posts.

I do not understand how you can state that with such certainty when the interval between first flip and solar max was more than 3 years in Cycle 24.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

3 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

I do not understand how you can state that with such certainty when the interval between first flip and solar max was more than 3 years in Cycle 24.

See the post above from Capricopia and mine from the strength of Solar cycle 25. Also the other model is almost flipping (not the classic one)… conclusion: before the end of 2023,,,

[Archmonoth]

10 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Solar max is before the end of 2023….  See several previous posts.

I looked over the link you provided with the article about flipping. The link also considers a solar dynamo, something you have said was a myth in previous posts. 

 

"As the cycle progresses and reaches the maximum, the poleward surges of this flux reverse the sign of the magnetic field at high-latitude and polar regions. These surges then continue to build up new polar fields during the declining phase of the cycle"

 

I didn't see anything about the time before solar max. As 3gMike mentioned, it was 3 years after the first flip before the max in the previous cycles.

 

Can you explain how you came to the conclusion that the end of 2023 will be a solar max? 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Archmonoth