Southern field close to flipping?

[3gMike]

I know that this thread is, strictly speaking, related to reversal of the southern polar field but I would be interested to hear views about the behaviour of trailing fields in the northern hemisphere, which currently seem to be behaving differently to those in the southern hemisphere.

Looking at a couple of recent jsoc farside maps it seems that as AR3180 decays it is sending a large volume of negative field from the trailing edge toward the northern pole - particularly at longitudes 300 to 360, and perhaps also on the farside around longitude 180.

Over time this will contribute to reversal of the northern pole. In the southern hemisphere there seems to be almost no positive field above 30 deg latitude. 

Perhaps the lack of drift in the southern hemisphere supports Patrick's claim that it has changed polarity?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 6/1/2023 om 22:30, 3gMike zei:

I know that this thread is, strictly speaking, related to reversal of the southern polar field but I would be interested to hear views about the behaviour of trailing fields in the northern hemisphere, which currently seem to be behaving differently to those in the southern hemisphere.

Looking at a couple of recent jsoc farside maps it seems that as AR3180 decays it is sending a large volume of negative field from the trailing edge toward the northern pole - particularly at longitudes 300 to 360, and perhaps also on the farside around longitude 180.

Over time this will contribute to reversal of the northern pole. In the southern hemisphere there seems to be almost no positive field above 30 deg latitude. 

Perhaps the lack of drift in the southern hemisphere supports Patrick's claim that it has changed polarity?

We will know shortly if the northern has also flipped. The high solar flux points that it has happened… normally Stanford will update next week… but both can flip back for a while…Will be interesting to follow… 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

 

Op 6/1/2023 om 22:30, 3gMike zei:

I know that this thread is, strictly speaking, related to reversal of the southern polar field but I would be interested to hear views about the behaviour of trailing fields in the northern hemisphere, which currently seem to be behaving differently to those in the southern hemisphere.

Looking at a couple of recent jsoc farside maps it seems that as AR3180 decays it is sending a large volume of negative field from the trailing edge toward the northern pole - particularly at longitudes 300 to 360, and perhaps also on the farside around longitude 180.

Over time this will contribute to reversal of the northern pole. In the southern hemisphere there seems to be almost no positive field above 30 deg latitude. 

Perhaps the lack of drift in the southern hemisphere supports Patrick's claim that it has changed polarity?

There was an interaction between the northern and southern field… Very rare…

 

[MinYoongi]

Quoting Ben Davidson should be illegal lol

[Sam Warfel]

Ben Davidson 😂🤣😂🤣

[hamateur 1953]

This is obviously a joke!   this is a Serious forum!   sheesh!

1 hour ago, Sam Warfel said:

Ben Davidson 😂🤣😂🤣

 

Love it.  🥰

suspicious observers??  what the heck???!!

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

edit

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Update

northern field hasn’t flipped yet in December … Southern field flip flopping….
 

2022:12:26_21h:07m:13s    17N   -2S   10Avg   

 

[Philalethes]

While Ben obviously says a lot of kooky stuff, that doesn't mean he doesn't also talk about some actual facts. To simply dismiss a source like that without considering the specifics as related to whatever is being discussed doesn't really make for good discussion; that being said, just posting a video and expecting people to watch it when it's from someone who is known to say a lot of dubious things is not good either. At the very least quote some excerpts which are relevant to the discussion or summarize what is being argued or mentioned.

As for the topic at hand, I saw a video by Keith Strong just now where he outlined a tiny region in the southern hemisphere which had opposite leading and trailing polarities from what it "should" have; he mentioned it as a possible indication of a very early sign of SC26, but does admit that this seems highly unlikely. If the southern field is currently flipping and the northern field isn't symmetrically following suit, I believe what he mentions as an alternate but also unlikely explanation, that the field lines are twisting chaotically, could actually be more likely. Scott McIntosh also seemed to favor this from what I gathered, pointing out that the latitude was too low for where the reverse polarity sunspots typically occur. Quoting him:

Quote

can’t be at high enough latitude to be SC26. Also, This time next year - maybe.. new work is looking at the potential splitting of the toroidal field bands that can make non-compliant regions..especially on their periphery…

We also know that the polar fields will tend to partially flip before the mid-latitude ones do, and this is expected to start happening around this time of the cycle as far as I know, so it doesn't strike me as too unlikely that the southern field is beginning to flip. If true it would be interesting to see when the northern field starts to follow suit. From looking at butterfly plots it seems to me that the maxima tend to occur when the other polar field starts to flip as well, which makes sense considering the large-scale field orientation that must necessarily take place when that happens. That's not based on any statistical analysis though, just looking at some data, I assume people here have further insights and information related to this process.

Edited January 19, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[hamateur 1953]

Let me just state here for the public record that whatever I failed to understand about Patricks theories last week. Giving him a “ time limit” I feel was childish and reprehensible. Im probably going to exit this forum as a result of the heated exchanges that occurred last week that I was a participant in. innocent ? I don’t think so   Mike hamateur 

 

 

 

[3gMike]

12 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Let me just state here for the public record that whatever I failed to understand about Patricks theories last week. Giving him a “ time limit” I feel was childish and reprehensible. Im probably going to exit this forum as a result of the heated exchanges that occurred last week that I was a participant in. innocent ? I don’t think so   Mike hamateur 

 

 

 

Hi Mike,

Please don't leave. I for one generally appreciate your contributions. Yes, it got a bit out of control last week, but we all get frustrated at times.

 

 

[Sam Warfel]

4 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Mike,

Please don't leave. I for one generally appreciate your contributions. Yes, it got a bit out of control last week, but we all get frustrated at times.

I second this, @hamateur 1953 don’t beat yourself up too much about that. The best thing to do from it is to learn from it and move on. Leaving because of it would only give it more harmful power than it really had. 

[hamateur 1953]

Thanks for that Mike. But if I get that easily frustrated, it doesn’t speak well of MY character. I have given this a lot of thought. Im probably an anachronism anyway 🤣

8 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Hi Mike,

Please don't leave. I for one generally appreciate your contributions. Yes, it got a bit out of control last week, but we all get frustrated at times.

 

 

 

On sams remark I hadn’t considered this aspect.  Moreover was reminded of a passage in 1984 When old Winston Smith went to work one day and discovered that his friend Syme had probably been vaporised.   Records can too easily become altered these days.  But that aside Thanks for the positive stuff.  Maybe I will lurk a bit more or just chill as WW would probably suggest  🤣🤣🤣 Mike. 

[3gMike]

14 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Update

northern field hasn’t flipped yet in December … Southern field flip flopping….
 

2022:12:26_21h:07m:13s    17N   -2S   10Avg   

 

I've managed to download data from WSO, and have reconfigured it into a spreadsheet that allows me to produce plots.

Here is the plot for Cycle 25 up to Dec 26th. There is a gap in the WSO data, so a gap in the plot as well !

[hamateur 1953]

 

14 hours ago, 3gMike said:

15 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

While Ben obviously says a lot of kooky stuff, that doesn't mean he doesn't also talk about some actual facts. To simply dismiss a source like that without considering the specifics as related to whatever is being discussed doesn't really make for good discussion; that being said, just posting a video and expecting people to watch it when it's from someone who is known to say a lot of dubious things is not good either. At the very least quote some excerpts which are relevant to the discussion or summarize what is being argued or mentioned.

As for the topic at hand, I saw a video by Keith Strong just now where he outlined a tiny region in the southern hemisphere which had opposite leading and trailing polarities from what it "should" have; he mentioned it as a possible indication of a very early sign of SC26, but does admit that this seems highly unlikely. If the southern field is currently flipping and the northern field isn't symmetrically following suit, I believe what he mentions as an alternate but also unlikely explanation, that the field lines are twisting chaotically, could actually be more likely. Scott McIntosh also seemed to favor this from what I gathered, pointing out that the latitude was too low for where the reverse polarity sunspots typically occur. Quoting him:

We also know that the polar fields will tend to partially flip before the mid-latitude ones do, and this is expected to start happening around this time of the cycle as far as I know, so it doesn't strike me as too unlikely that the southern field is beginning to flip. If true it would be interesting to see when the northern field starts to follow suit. From looking at butterfly plots it seems to me that the maxima tend to occur when the other polar field starts to flip as well, which makes sense considering the large-scale field orientation that must necessarily take place when that happens. That's not based on any statistical analysis though, just looking at some data, I assume people here have further insights and information related to this process.

 

 

 

Now that stuff is quite easily understood (at least by me).  Very well put indeed.  Thanks! Mike. 

[Capricopia]

Dr K Strong, just a day after saying this cycle was going to be more active than SC24, posted a new video about a reverse polarity region.  

Combined with the current sheet jump over 70 last July http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif the apparent peak of the southern field  https://solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png and sunspots at lower latitudes, it looks like yes.

The SH was supposed to be more active this cycle which suggests that the max will be lower and earlier than SC24.

 

 

r 

 

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, Capricopia said:

Dr K Strong, just a day after saying this cycle was going to be more active than SC24, posted a new video about a reverse polarity region.  

Combined with the current sheet jump over 70 last July http://wso.stanford.edu/gifs/Tilts.gif the apparent peak of the southern field  https://solen.info/solar/images/cycle24.png and sunspots at lower latitudes, it looks like yes.

The SH was supposed to be more active this cycle which suggests that the max will be lower and earlier than SC24.

Yes, I referred and linked to that video a few posts above. However, he's not actually implying that this is in fact the beginning of SC26, just mentioning it as an unlikely possibility that this region might be the first hints of it. As I mentioned in that post above, the reverse polarity region is, as far as I understand, most likely not among the first that occur at higher latitudes when a new cycle begins, but rather a product of the chaotic field line entanglement that occurs due to the asymmetrically flipping polar fields around the time preceding maximum.

9 hours ago, 3gMike said:

I've managed to download data from WSO, and have reconfigured it into a spreadsheet that allows me to produce plots.

Here is the plot for Cycle 25 up to Dec 26th. There is a gap in the WSO data, so a gap in the plot as well !

Perhaps I'm not understanding this data properly, correct me if I'm wrong or misinterpreting, but this seems to corroborate the fact that the southern field had started flipping around the time this thread was started.

[3gMike]

42 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, I referred and linked to that video a few posts above. However, he's not actually implying that this is in fact the beginning of SC26, just mentioning it as an unlikely possibility that this region might be the first hints of it. As I mentioned in that post above, the reverse polarity region is, as far as I understand, most likely not among the first that occur at higher latitudes when a new cycle begins, but rather a product of the chaotic field line entanglement that occurs due to the asymmetrically flipping polar fields around the time preceding maximum.

Perhaps I'm not understanding this data properly, correct me if I'm wrong or misinterpreting, but this seems to corroborate the fact that the southern field had started flipping around the time this thread was started.

Concerning the reverse polarity spot it is interesting to look at the latest WSO Magnetogram to see how the edges of fields centred in one hemisphere are crossing over into the other.

Yes, my plot does corroborate the flipping of the southern field. It also shows that we cannot be certain what will happen with the northern field until we have a few readings, but I suspect that it will also flip within the next few months. That suspicion is based on the fact that the field strength has started to fall quite sharply, sooner than would be expected from the timing of dips seen in the earlier part of the cycle.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

20 minuten geleden, 3gMike zei:

Concerning the reverse polarity spot it is interesting to look at the latest WSO Magnetogram to see how the edges of fields centred in one hemisphere are crossing over into the other.

Yes, my plot does corroborate the flipping of the southern field. It also shows that we cannot be certain what will happen with the northern field until we have a few readings, but I suspect that it will also flip within the next few months. That suspicion is based on the fact that the field strength has started to fall quite sharply, sooner than would be expected from the timing of dips seen in the earlier part of the cycle.

Possible to find that the southern flipped in august 2022 with this method?🧐🤔

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Possible to find that the southern flipped in august 2022 with this method?🧐🤔

If you look at the chart a few posts above, it does seem to indicate that. I'm referring to this one:

11 hours ago, 3gMike said:

It's hard to tell exactly which line each date belongs to, but looks like it indeed started to flip around July-August 2022.

[3gMike]

17 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

If you look at the chart a few posts above, it does seem to indicate that. I'm referring to this one:

It's hard to tell exactly which line each date belongs to, but looks like it indeed started to flip around July-August 2022.

Yes, that is correct : 29 Jul -3, 08 Aug +5, 18 Aug +18, 28 Aug -2

[hamateur 1953]

Ok.  So hypothetically speaking… what would the total length of this cycle become before cycle 26 actually begins?  Any guesses? 

[Philalethes]

7 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Ok.  So hypothetically speaking… what would the total length of this cycle become before cycle 26 actually begins?  Any guesses? 

That's pretty hard to say based on this limited data point alone. One could take a look at WSO's data on when this flipping started to occur relative to previous lengths and estimated maxima, perhaps. Looking over it briefly we can see:

SC24:

• Started 2008-12, maximum 2014-04, ended 2019-12.
• Northern field (N) started flipping 2011-01.
• Southern field (S) followed suit 2013-05.
• Both fields (B) settled into new polarities 2015-01 (N last).

SC23:

• Started 1996-08, maximum 2001-11, ended 2008-12.
• S flipped 1998-10.
• N flipped 1999-11.
• B settled 2001-06 (S last).

SC22:

• Started 1986-09, maximum 1989-11, ended 1996-08.
• N flipped 1989-01.
• S flipped 1989-08.
• B settled 1991-06 (S last).

SC21:

• Started 1976-03, maximum 1979-12, ended 1986-09.
• N flipped 1979-02.
• S flipped 1979-09.
• B settled 1980-06 (S last).

The WSO data doesn't go further back, and any more would be tedious to go through manually anyway, but there are certainly many opportunities to process this data and present it visually. Also, as mentioned above, based on this limited data it's hard to extrapolate anything meaningful. Some observations:

• For SC21 and SC22, both fields started flipping in relatively short succession within roughly half a year of each other, and had their maxima shortly thereafter (3-4 months). 
• For SC23, there was more time between when they started to flip (~a year), and maximum occurred ~2 years after the second started to flip.
• For SC24, there was even more time between the two, a bit less than ~2.5 years, and maximum occurred a year after the second.
• For SC21, SC22, and SC24, both fields settled into new polarities after the maximum; for SC23 the maximum preceded this point.

I'm not sure there's really anything general you can draw from that. To address the question more specifically and see if we can extrapolate anything meaningful about time to first flip relative to total length, let's see:

• SC21 lasted ~10.5 years and first flip occurred ~3 years into it.
• SC22 lasted ~10 years and first flip occurred a bit less than ~2.5 years into it.
• SC23 lasted a bit less than ~12.5 years and first flip occurred ~2 years into it.
• SC24 lasted ~11 years and first flip occurred ~2 years into it.

As you can see, there doesn't seem to be any particularly strong pattern here. I would guess statistical analysis would give a very weak relationship as shorter time to first flip leading to a longer cycle, but we can see this is reversed for SC21 and SC22 (and SC23 is longer than SC24 even though first flip occurred at the same time into them).

In other words, based on just those data points alone, the length of SC25 could really be anything (of course probably around 11 years, as is the average).

Feel free to look at the data yourself or comment upon these observations, and anyone else is of course free to comment and provide additional information, but I think accurate predictions of cycle length still remains the domain of diviners with tea leaves and crystal balls.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[Newbie]

PB: A view I have always held: The Sun, Sol, our star, is predictable in it's unpredictability.

N.

2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

 but I think accurate predictions of cycle length still remains the domain of diviners with tea leaves and crystal balls.

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

PB: A view I have always held: The Sun, Sol, our star, is predictable in it's unpredictability.

N.

Wise words!

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

9 uren geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei:

That's pretty hard to say based on this limited data point alone. One could take a look at WSO's data on when this flipping started to occur relative to previous lengths and estimated maxima, perhaps. Looking over it briefly we can see:

SC24:

• Started 2008-12, maximum 2014-04, ended 2019-12.
• Northern field (N) started flipping 2011-01.
• Southern field (S) followed suit 2013-05.
• Both fields (B) settled into new polarities 2015-01 (N last).

SC23:

• Started 1996-08, maximum 2001-11, ended 2008-12.
• S flipped 1998-10.
• N flipped 1999-11.
• B settled 2001-06 (S last).

SC22:

• Started 1986-09, maximum 1989-11, ended 1996-08.
• N flipped 1989-01.
• S flipped 1989-08.
• B settled 1991-06 (S last).

SC21:

• Started 1976-03, maximum 1979-12, ended 1986-09.
• N flipped 1979-02.
• S flipped 1979-09.
• B settled 1980-06 (S last).

The WSO data doesn't go further back, and any more would be tedious to go through manually anyway, but there are certainly many opportunities to process this data and present it visually. Also, as mentioned above, based on this limited data it's hard to extrapolate anything meaningful. Some observations:

• For SC21 and SC22, both fields started flipping in relatively short succession within roughly half a year of each other, and had their maxima shortly thereafter (3-4 months). 
• For SC23, there was more time between when they started to flip (~a year), and maximum occurred ~2 years after the second started to flip.
• For SC24, there was even more time between the two, a bit less than ~2.5 years, and maximum occurred a year after the second.
• For SC21, SC22, and SC24, both fields settled into new polarities after the maximum; for SC23 the maximum preceded this point.

I'm not sure there's really anything general you can draw from that. To address the question more specifically and see if we can extrapolate anything meaningful about time to first flip relative to total length, let's see:

• SC21 lasted ~10.5 years and first flip occurred ~3 years into it.
• SC22 lasted ~10 years and first flip occurred a bit less than ~2.5 years into it.
• SC23 lasted a bit less than ~12.5 years and first flip occurred ~2 years into it.
• SC24 lasted ~11 years and first flip occurred ~2 years into it.

As you can see, there doesn't seem to be any particularly strong pattern here. I would guess statistical analysis would give a very weak relationship as shorter time to first flip leading to a longer cycle, but we can see this is reversed for SC21 and SC22 (and SC23 is longer than SC24 even though first flip occurred at the same time into them).

In other words, based on just those data points alone, the length of SC25 could really be anything (of course probably around 11 years, as is the average).

Feel free to look at the data yourself or comment upon these observations, and anyone else is of course free to comment and provide additional information, but I think accurate predictions of cycle length still remains the domain of diviners with tea leaves and crystal balls.

With 365 days smoothing the duration of the solar cycle varies against the ISN. Possible to look in these data if you can find something more? Especially the solar flux from low to high…

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/356556167_Calculating_the_Exact_Strength_of_Solar_Cycle_25_using_365_Days_Smoothing

Edited January 21, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl