Southern field close to flipping?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

can somebody check? Did it fast

SC24:

 

• Northern flipping 1440 days
• Southern flipping 10 days
• Average flipped 530 days

SC23:

• S flipped 700 days
• N flipped 350 days
• Average flipped 270 days

SC22:

• N flipped 460 days
• S flipped 660 days
• Average flipped 190 days

SC21:

• N flipped  290 days
• S flipped 300 days
• average flipped 100 days

There is a linear relationship between the average field spending time flipping and the strength of the Cycle
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367021425_The_Anti-Phase_Solution_for_the_Average_Polar_Magnetic_Field

[WildWill]

18 hours ago, Newbie said:

PB: A view I have always held: The Sun, Sol, our star, is predictable in it's unpredictability.

N.

Chaotic dynamic system - the end of predictability, yet still deterministic… 

Thanks for the book recommendation!

WnA

[Philalethes]

12 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

 

can somebody check? Did it fast

SC24:

 

• Northern flipping 1440 days
• Southern flipping 10 days
• Average flipped 530 days

SC23:

• S flipped 700 days
• N flipped 350 days
• Average flipped 270 days

SC22:

• N flipped 460 days
• S flipped 660 days
• Average flipped 190 days

SC21:

• N flipped  290 days
• S flipped 300 days
• average flipped 100 days

There is a linear relationship between the average field spending time flipping and the strength of the Cycle
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367021425_The_Anti-Phase_Solution_for_the_Average_Polar_Magnetic_Field

I see how this ties in with Svalgaard's model. In essence what is being claimed is that the shorter the time spent flipping, the "faster" the polarities are essentially moving away from each other, and thus the stronger the overall fields once fully flipped; if I understand this correctly. It's quite interesting to think of it that way, and I do see how it makes sense.

Overall it ties in with the general understanding that the polar fields when at their most stable and opposite is when there is a Solar minimum, since the field will be relatively orderly, whereas when at their least stable as they're flipping will tend to produce a chaotic field and thus a lot of sunspots. This is also quite reminiscent of some of what McIntosh is trying to get at when talking about the terminator and the timings of when active regions of opposite polarities start appearing at higher latitudes.

It's also very interesting that you in this paper are essentially doing something similar to what I was doing in the post above, i.e. going through the cycles and looking at the time spent flipped. As I said above, it definitely does make sense to me that the strength of the fields at minimum would end up lower if they spend more time hovering around 0, not unlike a pendulum with a lower amplitude; like Sol, a pendulum has a fixed period (for Sol that is ~11 years) determined by its length, but with a lower amplitude more of that time would be spent near the middle.

Now, if we grant some of these hypotheticals as true for the sake of argument, another good question arises: when the magnetic field flips with a lower amplitude, like a swing or pendulum that is hardly moving from side to side, what is it that restores the amplitude to previous heights (i.e. like someone pushing the swing or pendulum)? There have been a lot of hypothesized longer-term cycles, like e.g. a sawtooth-shaped Gleissberg cycle that I've seen in a few papers, essentially "recharging" the amplitude over the course of 8 Solar cycles before it drops back down; this naturally makes me wonder if there is possibly some external and cyclical forcing on Sol itself through mechanisms we don't know much about. After all we have mighty little empirical data from outside the heliosphere, and we have a lot on our plate already just figuring out what is going on inside our little bubble, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if something external to the entire heliosphere could potentially affect it in various periodic ways. Perhaps going a bit too off topic, but when I think of this I'm reminded of Amelia Stutz' classic paper on star formation called Slingshot mechanism in Orion: Kinematic evidence for ejection of protostars by filaments, where stars are seen to form along large-scale oscillating filamentary structures. Granted, some of those processes occur on far longer timescales, but if there are similar structures nearby the heliosphere on a smaller scale, I could see them potentially affecting it in the manner described above.

A lot of speculation and hypothesization of course, but at least there's plenty to look at and discuss.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[3gMike]

On 1/21/2023 at 9:06 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

 

can somebody check? Did it fast

SC24:

 

• Northern flipping 1440 days
• Southern flipping 10 days
• Average flipped 530 days

SC23:

• S flipped 700 days
• N flipped 350 days
• Average flipped 270 days

SC22:

• N flipped 460 days
• S flipped 660 days
• Average flipped 190 days

SC21:

• N flipped  290 days
• S flipped 300 days
• average flipped 100 days

There is a linear relationship between the average field spending time flipping and the strength of the Cycle
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/367021425_The_Anti-Phase_Solution_for_the_Average_Polar_Magnetic_Field

Assuming that your figures are correct the relationship would like something like this....

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

3 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

Assuming that your figures are correct the relationship would like something like this....

Not completely right… Both should be linear. But right as presented…Now we need to find a relationship with the length of the cycle… and when they start to flip based on previous values…

Edited January 22, 2023 by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Capricopia]

This plot shows the South has reversed.  Pretty soon after solar min.

[3gMike]

6 hours ago, Capricopia said:

This plot shows the South has reversed.  Pretty soon after solar min.

Yes, it has been reducing in strength since we passed minimum, but it has only just arrived at the zero-crossing point where it changes polarity. You can see from the plot that the northern field is also heading toward zero and is likely to change polarity in the next few months.

Please also note that the last date indicated on the x axis is September 2022 due to the averaging period used. Things have moved on since then and you can see the unfiltered data on the WSO website.

Edited January 23, 2023 by 3gMike
Corrected grammar. Added note re dates.

[hamateur 1953]

So. I don’t wanna put words in anyones mouths, so could Mike translate this into a rough date of solar max give or take two months or so?? tnx. other cowboy across der pond Mike 

Love the slingshot!!

[Philalethes]

13 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

So. I don’t wanna put words in anyones mouths, so could Mike translate this into a rough date of solar max give or take two months or so?? tnx. other cowboy across der pond Mike 

Love the slingshot!!

I can do that too, if you want. Do you want me to use my tarot deck or my I Ching sticks?

[hamateur 1953]

Im gonna crawl back into hiding doggone it but some of this stuff is just too funny. I don’t wish to offend being shy but crazy as heck!  

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

So. I don’t wanna put words in anyones mouths, so could Mike translate this into a rough date of solar max give or take two months or so?? tnx. other cowboy across der pond Mike 

Love the slingshot!!

Between now and the second week of April… when the northern field has flipped.

[Philalethes]

46 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Between now and the second week of April… when the northern field has flipped.

Well, from the graphic above it seems like maximum sometimes occurs a while after both polar fields have flipped, no? Looks like e.g. SC23 had its maximum ~2 years after the fields had flipped.

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Well, from the graphic above it seems like maximum sometimes occurs a while after both polar fields have flipped, no? Looks like e.g. SC23 had its maximum ~2 years after the fields had flipped.

That would be much more fitting for this cycle as well, we don’t seem to be at max and probably won’t be until 1 year at the earliest or possibly 2.  If this data indicated we’d be at max now I’d question it, but it seems to correlate well for past cycles 

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

So. I don’t wanna put words in anyones mouths, so could Mike translate this into a rough date of solar max give or take two months or so?? tnx. other cowboy across der pond Mike 

Love the slingshot!!

Afraid not - I was just projecting when northern field polarity might reverse based on available data from WSO

[Sam Warfel]

35 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Afraid not - I was just projecting when northern field polarity might reverse based on available data from WSO

Always good not to try to read too much into what we have!

[Philalethes]

10 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

So. I don’t wanna put words in anyones mouths, so could Mike translate this into a rough date of solar max give or take two months or so?? tnx. other cowboy across der pond Mike 

Love the slingshot!!

Just watched a presentation by McIntosh from roughly a couple of weeks ago, and there he estimated maximum to occur in ~9-15 months from that time (so ~8.5-14.5 months from now, i.e. sometime between middle of October this year to middle of April next year), based on the entirety of the Hale cycle. It's a broad estimate, but given that maximum has occurred both before the flipping of the fields and a few years after, I guess it's still an interesting prediction to check if ends up being correct.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[Archmonoth]

On 1/23/2023 at 9:39 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Between now and the second week of April… when the northern field has flipped.

And if the max isn't until 2 years after? What does an inaccurate prediction tell you? 

[Christopher S.]

On 1/23/2023 at 1:15 AM, 3gMike said:

Yes, it has been reducing in strength since we passed minimum, but it has only just arrived at the zero-crossing point where it changes polarity. You can see from the plot that the northern field is also heading toward zero and is likely to change polarity in the next few months.

Please also note that the last date indicated on the x axis is September 2022 due to the averaging period used. Things have moved on since then and you can see the unfiltered data on the WSO website.

Check this for recent measurements, and credit to Jan Alvestad for doing this work: http://www.solen.info/solar

I'd say the data lines up.

[3gMike]

5 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Check this for recent measurements, and credit to Jan Alvestad for doing this work: http://www.solen.info/solar

I'd say the data lines up.

Thanks for posting that. I do follow that source and, as you say, the recent increase in activity seems to align quite closely with the reversal of polarity of the southern field. However, we still need to see when the northern field reverses and if we get a single peak in SSN or whether there will be a second peak later in the cycle.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

20 uren geleden, 3gMike zei:

Thanks for posting that. I do follow that source and, as you say, the recent increase in activity seems to align quite closely with the reversal of polarity of the southern field. However, we still need to see when the northern field reverses and if we get a single peak in SSN or whether there will be a second peak later in the cycle.

Question: The southern field flipped around August 8, 2022. Did anybody see something unusual in the 10 days before or after that date?

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Question: The southern field flipped around August 8, 2022. Did anybody see something unusual in the 10 days before or after that date?

It's hard to remember exactly what was going on back then. I can't recall anything special or unusual, at least. Looking at the archive there doesn't seem to have been anything particularly anomalous with regards to general Solar activity. Anything in particular you're thinking of? If there's something specific on your mind, please feel free to simply divulge it instead of doing it in a roundabout way.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

2023:01:05_21h:07m:13s     2N  -10S    6Avg   20nhz filt:   41Nf    3Sf   19Avgf

Solar max is here!

As predicted the northern field is close to flipping on January 5!

If it flipped on January 15… we have seen solar max this January…

[Sam Warfel]

Field flip doesn’t mean max, could be as much as 14 months from now.

Never mind the fact that we are demonstrably not at max. We haven’t had an a stronger flare since the X2 this spring, and we haven’t even had a G4 since 2021. For a SC that seems stronger than SC24, it’s not at level of activity that would indicate a max yet.

On 1/23/2023 at 8:27 PM, Philalethes Bythos said:

Just watched a presentation by McIntosh from roughly a couple of weeks ago, and there he estimated maximum to occur in ~9-15 months from that time (so ~8.5-14.5 months from now, i.e. sometime between middle of October this year to middle of April next year), based on the entirety of the Hale cycle. It's a broad estimate, but given that maximum has occurred both before the flipping of the fields and a few years after, I guess it's still an interesting prediction to check if ends up being correct.

 

[Archmonoth]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

2023:01:05_21h:07m:13s     2N  -10S    6Avg   20nhz filt:   41Nf    3Sf   19Avgf

Solar max is here!

As predicted the northern field is close to flipping on January 5!

If it flipped on January 15… we have seen solar max this January…

How does the solar max achieved on January 15th fit into your narrative? Are you just claiming this to spite other predictions/knowledge? 

 

Don't you need a decent/decrease from the max to determine that the max was reached? I think you are missing the hindsight required. 

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, Sam Warfel said:

Field flip doesn’t mean max, could be as much as 14 months from now.

Never mind the fact that we are demonstrably not at max. We haven’t had an a stronger flare since the X2 this spring, and we haven’t even had a G4 since 2021. For a SC that seems stronger than SC24, it’s not at level of activity that would indicate a max yet.

 

Flip does indeed not mean max as far as I'm aware. That being said, going by the graphic posted by Capricopia again, there's also a possibility of max occurring before the fields flips; for SC22 for example (1986-1996), max seems to have occurred an entire year before the flip. However, since the SN number is measurably higher now than before, that's clearly not possible for this cycle.

Max occurring at around the same time the fields flip is however definitely a possibility, but I don't see how this can reasonably be declared with certainty. If we were actually at maximum now, that would be quite exceptional if I'm not mistaken, both in terms of weakness and likely shortness. Absolute worst case scenario would be something like heading towards a new grand minimum like the Maunder Minimum, maybe that's what you'd expect to see then, but that seems exceedingly unlikely.

I would personally rather bet on maximum occurring around a year from now and the cycle not being incredibly exceptional.

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Solar max is here!

As predicted the northern field is close to flipping on January 5!

If it flipped on January 15… we have seen solar max this January…

What makes you say this? As pointed out to you previously, both by myself and others, max often occurs after both fields flip, even as much as 2 years afterwards as indicated by the above graphic posted by Capricopia. Unless you're operating with assumptions you're not telling us about I really don't see how you can be so sure about this. I suspect time will prove you wrong, but that remains to be seen.

Edited January 26, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos