15 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Well, a full halo from an X50 flare straight from the middle of the visible disc is probably around the threshold where I'd at least take some short-term precautions in case the power were to go out, heh; but that's obviously a very extreme event, nothing we've seen so far this cycle has been anywhere near that, more like tiny puffs of smoke in comparison.

I believe that an long duration X40 to X50 flare with a CME arriving at earth in 9 hours (faster than the 1972 solar storm) happening during equinox would cause some problems to grids in higher latitudes but nothing major or "scary." Geomagnetic storms seem to be overhyped for me. If your a satellite operator or just an astronaut who just happens to be on the moon I think the proton storms would be the only dangerous thing to happen during such a flare.

11 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said:

Ok sorry about that

it's okay, you shouldn't worry too, there is now 0% possibility for storm which will cause loss of electricity happens

Edited February 6, 20241 yr by tniickck

Ok thanks just sharing info about it now

What’s Carrington Rotation

3 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said:

What’s Carrington Rotation

It's the rotation number for the sun. Think of it as the sun's version of an earth day or full rotation.

Ok thanks m1.33 flare just happened my notification said

Any update on the farsided cme from 12:00

 

25 minutes ago, tniickck said:

Jul 2012 flare was only ≈X2.5 but produced an extreme event CME 

Was that the actual flare strength from a flare-facing view, or as measured from Earth/L1? Because from what I've seen the eruption was from a bit past the limb (as seen in the estimate at 2:27 here), so from our perspective we wouldn't have been able to measure the full strength properly. I don't know that much about the event though, so maybe you mean it was actually measured at ~X2.5 even from a clear view of it (although I'm not sure what satellite that would have been, at least to my knowledge SA doesn't have an instrument to measure X-ray flux).

Not that it matters for my hypothetical scenario if we see both an X50 and a big symmetric full halo blast straight at us, heh; presumably it wouldn't cause much lasting damage to grids, but I would personally plan for the possibility of going a few hours without power if that were to happen. If I'm not mistaken some of the countermeasures against GICs to prevent permanent damage in such events do include temporarily disconnecting certain equipment, so even in that case I wouldn't rely on having continuous power through such an event.

But of course, again, it's a hypothetical scenario of a very extreme event, and even then it's not something to go around worrying about as we'd likely deal with it just fine.

18 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

I believe that an long duration X40 to X50 flare with a CME arriving at earth in 9 hours (faster than the 1972 solar storm) happening during equinox would cause some problems to grids in higher latitudes but nothing major or "scary." Geomagnetic storms seem to be overhyped for me. If your a satellite operator or just an astronaut who just happens to be on the moon I think the proton storms would be the only dangerous thing to happen during such a flare.

Yeah, that's what I mean. Might lose power for some time, like in Canada in 1989 or Sweden in 2003, but would likely not pose any long-term problem; still something I'd account for if it were to happen, like I'd account for traffic in a certain place after an accident, or a big flood rendering a bridge unavailable, and so on.

14 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Was that the actual flare strength from a flare-facing view, or as measured from Earth/L1? Because from what I've seen the eruption was from a bit past the limb (as seen in the estimate at 2:27 here), so from our perspective we wouldn't have been able to measure the full strength properly. I don't know that much about the event though, so maybe you mean it was actually measured at ~X2.5 even from a clear view of it (although I'm not sure what satellite that would have been, at least to my knowledge SA doesn't have an instrument to measure X-ray flux).

by images from stereo-a, it was in front of it

14 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Because from what I've seen the eruption was from a bit past the limb (as seen in the estimate at 2:27 here)

nah, not even close: if you take solar system as a large wall clock and put Earth at 12, the flare was at about seven (it is hard to explain but i hope you got it), just because of the Parker's spiral and the enormous speed and density the CME dived so deep in our direction, but of course didnt hit us

Edited February 6, 20241 yr by tniickck

@tniickck:

I'll reply in this thread instead so we don't clutter up the thread with this discussion, hope that's fine.

We have a new region just coming into view in Southern Hemisphere. I have expected activity to slow down a bit, but fortunately both hemispheres are still “ hot” in 131 angstroms.  Super cool.  Edit: Especially as we will be losing 3575 soon.  Solar Ham notes 3576 enters our “ target zone” with earth over this coming weekend.  Hopefully it continues its behavior, perhaps an X class…

Edited February 8, 20241 yr by hamateur 1953

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

We have a new region just coming into view in Southern Hemisphere. I have expected activity to slow down a bit, but fortunately both hemispheres are still “ hot” in 131 angstroms.  Super cool.  Edit: Especially as we will be losing 3575 soon.  Solar Ham notes 3576 enters our “ target zone” with earth over this coming weekend.  Hopefully it continues its behavior, perhaps an X class…

Something else just erupted behind the actual limb too

6 hours ago, mozy said:

Something else just erupted behind the actual limb too

I hope it's still developing

2 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

I hope it's still developing

Yes

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Yes

Is this photo really that small?🤔

Edited February 9, 20241 yr by Adrian Kobyłecki

51 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

Is this photo really that small?🤔

The pixel count is! 90 pixels if I remember right! It would take an hour to load a picture of that size in the 90s on your computer!

Is it just me or does the incoming left edge activity look pretty juicy? I'm a newb kinda so just wondering 

1 minute ago, Andrew Bartel-sixbey said:

Is it just me or does the incoming left edge activity look pretty juicy? I'm a newb kinda so just wondering 

I wouldn't say juicy but there's certainly something incoming that could be interesting, we've had few eruptions behind there the past days

there is something behind the west limb i think, but it could actually only be plague

so far, on the intensitygram, i only can see plague incoming but who knows whats behind that. Farside images say there should be at least something incoming heh

 

right there could be something like a spot... but im not even going to try to stretch that (for not at least, when theres something interesting i still could do that)😂
the last pictures i edited, were these of incomin AR 3576, and there i almost chrased my computer with a picture that got to 190 times the size of the original (due to stretching)

Edited February 9, 20241 yr by Solar_Marcel
should not press "enter" while still writing, lol

I wonder how many more days till that one turns the corner  that blasted a full halo a few days ago? Probably about 7 if I make my own uneducated guess!

Edited February 10, 20241 yr by Jay-B

Bruh we're getting played with lol, limb eruptions left & right with CME blasts and we're getting impulsive M1 flares from our earthfacing region..

16 minutes ago, mozy said:

Bruh we're getting played with lol, limb eruptions left & right with CME blasts and we're getting impulsive M1 flares from our earthfacing region..

I saw that and said out loud "Well, that's not the center of the disk now is it." Hey, at least we have something to look forward to next week haha..

I'm curious to see if this most recent flare will put us into the S3 threshold.

Would that be 3561’s return?

@arjemma hey. Haha. More on incoming limb.  Cool stuff still. Wow. Excellent hopefully isn’t like the singing frog cartoon. Anyway.  Next week: more fun, more flux kids.  

Is it me or is this CME on the eastern limb much larger than the one on the western?

14 minutes ago, Sotiris Konstantis said:

Is it me or is this CME on the eastern limb much larger than the one on the western?

it is REALLY large. i bet it was an X flare. so much coronal mass was ejected on the dimming

solar orbiter will tell