The next best imagery will be from the coronagraph.

Thank you for opening this topic. 🤓
I think it will be a glancing earth impact because a lot went north.

It seems pretty quick, though northward

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Going roughly off of STEREO A, the CME will likely take no longer than 55 hours to arrive and won't come earlier than 30 hours.

Edited March 23, 20241 yr by Jesterface23

The first LASCO C2 image comes in for 04:36Z and there is no clear CME. heh

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Aaaaand finally we see it...

Edited March 23, 20241 yr by Jesterface23

We might be in line right near the edge of a bulk hit. I'll just need the rest of the imagery to fill in for a forecast.

.......................

And with that, the imagery is in and I have enough to calculate a forecast.

I am expecting an arrival during the second half of the 24th UTC. G4 will be possible.

34 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

We might be in line right near the edge of a bulk hit. I'll just need the rest of the imagery to fill in for a forecast.

.......................

And with that, the imagery is in and I have enough to calculate a forecast.

I am expecting an arrival during the second half of the 24th UTC. G4 will be possible.

Oh as in a G4 geomagnetic storm? That's pretty awesome (for auroras, probably not the power grid XD) hoping it hits closer towards 21:00 UTC so Scotland can see it

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

We might be in line right near the edge of a bulk hit. I'll just need the rest of the imagery to fill in for a forecast.

.......................

And with that, the imagery is in and I have enough to calculate a forecast.

I am expecting an arrival during the second half of the 24th UTC. G4 will be possible.

that’s fire! what is your calculation of start speed? i got around 1600-1800

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

We might be in line right near the edge of a bulk hit. I'll just need the rest of the imagery to fill in for a forecast.

.......................

And with that, the imagery is in and I have enough to calculate a forecast.

I am expecting an arrival during the second half of the 24th UTC. G4 will be possible.

For the first time I ran out of reactions. I love reading that G4 will be possible! ❤️

11 minutes ago, tniickck said:

that’s fire! what is your calculation of start speed? i got around 1600-1800

My calculations uses points in time rather than speeds. Though I'd estimate an average speed around 1500km/s-1600km/s through coronagraph imagery.

We just hit s1 levels on the proton flux.

2 hours ago, Radical said:

Oh as in a G4 geomagnetic storm? That's pretty awesome (for auroras, probably not the power grid XD) hoping it hits closer towards 21:00 UTC so Scotland can see it

Maybe the only problem we could have is the satellite data being down, heh. Geomagnetic storming could go through the 25th as well depending on what the flux rope does.

11 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Maybe the only problem we could have is the satellite data being down, heh. Geomagnetic storming could go through the 25th as well depending on what the flux rope does.

People seem to be a bit confused on when it's gonna hit earth. Glendale says 25th at 02:00 UTC. I've seen people say 5 days from now. Honestly don't know what to believe XD

2 minutes ago, Radical said:

People seem to be a bit confused on when it's gonna hit earth. Glendale says 25th at 02:00 UTC. I've seen people say 5 days from now. Honestly don't know what to believe XD

It's still early and a forecast for early on the 25th seems fair. There was a filament eruption with a chance to arrive on the 25th or 26th, though that will get run over by this CME.

NOAA  25 G1?

4 hours ago, tniickck said:

that’s fire! what is your calculation of start speed? i got around 1600-1800

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

My calculations uses points in time rather than speeds. Though I'd estimate an average speed around 1500km/s-1600km/s through coronagraph imagery.

That's both significantly higher than what I seem to be getting, both for the shock and for the core. I'm getting somewhere between 850-1350 km/s depending on which I'm measuring and when. And that would be the tangential direction, I'm also getting an angle of around 50-55°, so the radial speed would be a bit lower. Then again, this is all for the main blast, maybe the component we're seeing a slight full halo of should be measured differently.

In the spirit of science I'll make a prediction too, of arrival in 44-56 hours from launch; taking launch to have been at 23T01Z (it was a little bit after by the looks of it, but I'm just using the nearest whole hour for convenience), that would be around 24T21Z to 25T09Z.

It looks like a Phoenix or an angel

25 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

That's both significantly higher than what I seem to be getting, both for the shock and for the core. I'm getting somewhere between 850-1350 km/s depending on which I'm measuring and when. And that would be the tangential direction, I'm also getting an angle of around 50-55°, so the radial speed would be a bit lower. Then again, this is all for the main blast, maybe the component we're seeing a slight full halo of should be measured differently.

In the spirit of science I'll make a prediction too, of arrival in 44-56 hours from launch; taking launch to have been at 23T01Z (it was a little bit after by the looks of it, but I'm just using the nearest whole hour for convenience), that would be around 24T21Z to 25T09Z.

Tamitha Skov Said G2-G3 Possible. What do you think?

 Initial model runs indicated a CME arrival late
on 24 Mar to early on 25 Mar. Further analysis is in progress.  <-- from noaa. seems like you were right @Philalethes

y late on 24 Mar to early on 25 Mar, combined activity from a CH HSS
and the 23 Mar CME are likely to cause G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate), with a
chance for G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm.

Our thoughts:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/526/20240323-x11-solar-flare-with-earth-directed-cme.html

32 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 

 Initial model runs indicated a CME arrival late
on 24 Mar to early on 25 Mar. Further analysis is in progress.  <-- from noaa. seems like you were right @Philalethes

Seems way too early, the SIDC's first prediction actually indicates a 26 March arrival. Which seems late.

5 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Our thoughts:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/526/20240323-x11-solar-flare-with-earth-directed-cme.html

Seems way too early, the SIDC's first prediction actually indicates a 26 March arrival. Which seems late.

I think noaa swpc will model it a few times more.

11 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Our thoughts:

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/526/20240323-x11-solar-flare-with-earth-directed-cme.html

Seems way too early, the SIDC's first prediction actually indicates a 26 March arrival. Which seems late.

If I use just the tangential speed of the core as a basis I get around 60 hours, so ±6 hours that'd be 25T07Z to 25T19Z; maybe that ends up being more accurate, I guess we'll find out eventually. On my part this is all just based on rough measurements and approximations and heuristics, so it's more to see if I can get close, heh.

The protons rise still. Deep into S2 now.

Hey, someone, do you know why the magnetic field is at 17 bt and bz north at 7?

6 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Hey, someone, do you know why the magnetic field is at 17 bt and bz north at 7?

Good question, I have no idea. I'm pretty sure it's not related to this CME, though. Maybe ask here instead.

Proton levels Getting close to S3.

2 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Proton levels Getting close to S3.

Astronauts are currently on their way to the ISS. What effects do they have, if any?