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Surprised and excited when I got off work and saw how the region has developed since I last looked about 14 hours ago. I trust that 3615 will give us something good!! 

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  • Marcel de Bont
    Marcel de Bont

    This region is really interesting. Complex and facing Earth right now with a solid potential for a large flare. It has the ingredients for fireworks. Exciting!  

  • Philalethes
    Philalethes

    I just checked the unsigned flux for this region again (here), and it has increased to 8.3e+22 Mx now, which is closer to the upper part of the moderate range identified in the paper on magnetic cagin

  • no to anyone who is interested: I am alive and well after the incident in Moscow

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18 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

This region is really interesting. Complex and facing Earth right now with a solid potential for a large flare. It has the ingredients for fireworks. Exciting!

 

Thank you for the Update, really nice tweet ^-^ 

17 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said:

This region is really interesting. Complex and facing Earth right now with a solid potential for a large flare. It has the ingredients for fireworks. Exciting!

 

When we are getting video on SpaceWeatherLive's social media we can be sure - things are cookin' up. :D 

 

But seriously, this region is exploding with new spots. I think there is already more than 60 spots and it keeps going. If not largest, then one of most complex regions in this cycle for sure.22_03_2024_1613.thumb.jpg.cf3a98edfc94f4ba269af37bcd6f7e49.jpg

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

The main Delta is located in the southern portion, right?

Yes, it is also the brightest part of region in AIA 131.

1 hour ago, Marcel de Bont said:

 

 

thanks for this time-lapse.  First time witnessing the exponential growth that we see here... getting some expectation.

Rockandroll 3615   Y’all clearly have our permissions. All 53 or more of of dem sunspots.  Conspire to perform If ya please …

3615.  Please see @Pegasus51 note above.  Exponential in particular keepitup please. 

I just awoke @Ester89  haha. 

Edited by hamateur 1953
Addenda

image.png?ex=66101af9&is=65fda5f9&hm=dba

In the last few hours the solar activity is almost always in the upper C range. Shortly before the X5 Flare on 31.12.2023 it was similar. Maybe a good sign

 

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3 minutes ago, Misaka said:

image.png?ex=66101af9&is=65fda5f9&hm=dba

In the last few hours the solar activity is almost always in the upper C range. Shortly before the X5 Flare on 31.12.2023 it was similar. Maybe a good sign

 

Those C-flares are associated with a plasma eruption with 3614, so I don't believe that an X5 will follow.

 

4 minutes ago, chronical said:

Those C-flares are associated with a plasma eruption with 3614, so I don't believe that an X5 will follow.

 

Yes you are right. Completely forgot about 3614 😅

9 minutes ago, Misaka said:

image.png?ex=66101af9&is=65fda5f9&hm=dba

In the last few hours the solar activity is almost always in the upper C range. Shortly before the X5 Flare on 31.12.2023 it was similar. Maybe a good sign

 

This actually comes from region 3614 - there was a large filament eruption from it. Region 3165 is still rather "quiet", but for sure boosts the background flux levels.

 

P.S. Made a quick graphic to illustrate it. :)22_03_2024_1751.thumb.jpg.6a0622ad2b075326d0856840ae009eee.jpg

3 hours ago, Ester89 said:

Surprised and excited when I got off work and saw how the region has developed since I last looked about 14 hours ago. I trust that 3615 will give us something good!! 

Looks like it has really done well! 

Edited by hamateur 1953

How I like these moments - complex region on Earth-strike zone that can flare and erupt any moment. Like bomb with fuse, when it will explode - no one knows. :D

5 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

How I like these moments - complex region on Earth-strike zone that can flare and erupt any moment. Like bomb with fuse, when it will explode - no one knows. :D

Whenever I would like to have a real good look at the glowing ball in the sky, I usually go to the solar dynamics observatory website. Is that the best way to get up-to-date images?
 

3 minutes ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

Whenever I would like to have a real good look at the glowing ball in the sky, I usually go to the solar dynamics observatory website. Is that the best way to get up-to-date images?
 

Yes. Suvi is also good. :) Suvi <-

25 minutes ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

Whenever I would like to have a real good look at the glowing ball in the sky, I usually go to the solar dynamics observatory website. Is that the best way to get up-to-date images?
 

 https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=675&l_1=19&t_1=290&w_1=1193&h_1=1210&s_1=2024-03-22 02:19:06.0_5

This is a movie player for SDO. You can pick which date and if you want a still image or a video. You can choose up to 300 frames at 20 frames a second and choose all wavelengths SDO has to offer. The green arrows by the timestamp refresh the window. I usually pick 150frames at 10fps

This sight has just about everything to offer!

Edited by Parabolic
Typo

36 minutes ago, WhereingtonEvent said:

Whenever I would like to have a real good look at the glowing ball in the sky, I usually go to the solar dynamics observatory website. Is that the best way to get up-to-date images?
 

Aurora Compass has a great solar animation tool too with animated region numbering and x-ray flux ;)

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This region is starting to brighten a lot and its flux loops are getting a lot tighter/more intense (131aia & 171aia). AR3514's decay will probably allow AR3515 to finally let off a decent flare.

Edited by Parabolic
Typo

2 minutes ago, Parabolic said:

This region is starting to brighten a lot and its flux loops are getting a lot tighter/more intense (131aia & 171aia). AR3514's decay will probably allow AR3515 to finally let off a decent flare.

M-flare now.

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