Gary Mustard II Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 X 1.9 You all called that one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I most likely don’t know what I’m talking about since I just learned how to spot deltas a week ago but am I seeing a second delta spot forming here? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) Woah woah What in the wholeworthy sun happened when i was asleep? Just woke up and see this thread expoding😅 Everything seemed normal but then i saw there was an X-Class eruption? From 3590? WOW! Didnt expect that... 1 hour ago, Eric said: I most likely don’t know what I’m talking about since I just learned how to spot deltas a week ago but am I seeing a second delta spot forming here? Maybe, yes. @Solarflaretracker200or @tniickck maybe can tell more accurately wheter its a delta or not than me lol X1.7 again from 3590 !!! Edited February 22 by Solar_Marcel Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ester89 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 New flare in progress from 3590! X1.7 at the moment 😎 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 hours ago, Eric said: I most likely don’t know what I’m talking about since I just learned how to spot deltas a week ago but am I seeing a second delta spot forming here? Yeah, that’s a small delta. It’s just barely one though. X1.7 is the peak and at this point it looks about as impulsive as the last X flare. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This flare is a little longer than the last one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 1 minute ago, SpaceWeather5464 said: This flare is a little longer than the last one. I agree, just after I made my post it started flattening out a bit. Seems a bit more eruptive than the last x flare now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredSchuller Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 On 2/19/2024 at 6:22 PM, Ingolf said: Second one is that 3590 will produce the biggest earth directed Flare in this SC in exactly 86 hours. Remember my words ☝️ The really big flare is expected in 24 hours from now 😉 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solar_Marcel Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 5 minutes ago, FredSchuller said: The really big flare is expected in 24 hours from now 😉 becomes more and more likely haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 3 hours ago, Eric said: I most likely don’t know what I’m talking about since I just learned how to spot deltas a week ago but am I seeing a second delta spot forming here? yep, it is a delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aten Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) I can't remember an AR producing two X flares within 8 hours. That must be very rare. Edit: Looks like the last time this happened was AR 2673 in September 2017. Edited February 22 by Aten 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 I think something similar happened on October 2003 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) Oops Edited February 22 by Justanerd Don’t know how to delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) 3 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Oooooo. Funny. I thought the X1.9 had been downgraded by software or something!!! Excellent. Haha Nice pic!! Edited February 22 by hamateur 1953 Typo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justanerd Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 (edited) Are the Type II & Type IV radio emission alerts from the x flares? I have never seen the estimated velocity so low (154 km/s) on a radio emission. Just curious I know that’s a dumb question because at 154km/s it would have taken 11.25 days for those emissions to reach earth so what/where are they coming from? Is the advised ev a typo? Edited February 22 by Justanerd Clarification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 49 minutes ago, Justanerd said: Are the Type II & Type IV radio emission alerts from the x flares? I have never seen the estimated velocity so low (154 km/s) on a radio emission. Just curious I know that’s a dumb question because at 154km/s it would have taken 11.25 days for those emissions to reach earth so what/where are they coming from? Is the advised ev a typo? It's a common confusion, but the radio emission itself travels at the speed of light, since radio waves are electromagnetic waves. For type II emissions the radio waves in question originate from electrons being accelerated by a propagating CME, with the frequency corresponding to the density of the electrons being accelerated; as the electron density is lower farther out in the corona, there's a measurable decrease in the frequency, and by measuring how fast the frequency decreases it's possible to estimate how fast the CME is propagating, which is the estimate you see. The Wikipedia article on Solar radio emissions has a little section about it: Quote Type II bursts exhibit a relatively slow drift from high to low frequencies of around 0.05 MHz per second, typically over the course of a few minutes. They often exhibit two distinct bands of emission that correspond to fundamental and harmonic plasma emission emanating from the same region. Type II bursts are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and are produced at the leading edge of a CME, where a shock wave accelerates the electrons responsible for stimulating plasma emission. The frequency drifts from higher to lower values because it depends on the electron density, and the shock propagates outward away from the Sun through lower and lower densities. By using a model for the Sun's atmospheric density, the frequency drift rate can then be used to estimate the speed of the shock wave. But you're certainly right that it's not very common to see such low estimates, that one is definitely one of the lowest I've seen too. There has been some investigation into what the minimum CME speed that can possibly produce such bursts would be, and from observation it seems like the limit is around 250 km/s, so it's hard to say what's going on in this case. I would assume the most likely case is that the estimate is off and that the CME is probably a bit faster. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 just from a laymans perspective i feel like any developing deltas will POP pretty quickly just cos of the largeness of the thing that light blue dot in the middle of the big dark blue dot tho..... if that keeps changing colour i'd be wondering a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 59 minutes ago, cheebee said: that light blue dot in the middle of the big dark blue dot tho..... if that keeps changing colour i'd be wondering a bit more its light because the field there is strong, distorting the image. we had that 2-3 times before i think so theres a big chance you were not here yet since its rarer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Misaka Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 This spot is now the biggest one by size in the whole solar cycle. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Hey, I just realized that we only have 2 sunspots on the solar disk. I remember that a week ago we had like 6 sunspots. It's surprising to see only 2 sunspots on the solar disk right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 33 minutes ago, Misaka said: This spot is now the biggest one by size in the whole solar cycle. I dont think so. @tniickck had a chart in here a few days ago, but i dont remember it fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 Not a fan of how it is popping off flares as it starts looking at us 😅 Looks like all of our predictions were a bit late on this one. Size of 1220 though, can anyone confirm what @Misaka said about this being the largest of sc25? 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I dont think so. @tniickck had a chart in here a few days ago, but i dont remember it fully. Woops, didn't see this reply pop up. Anyone know where to find this chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Misaka Posted February 22 Popular Post Share Posted February 22 4 minutes ago, Trip said: Size of 1220 though, can anyone confirm what @Misaka said about this being the largest of sc25? https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/top-25-sunspot-regions/solar-cycle/25.html 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trip Posted February 22 Share Posted February 22 16 minutes ago, Misaka said: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/top-25-sunspot-regions/solar-cycle/25.html Dang, here it is! Also, I realize the probability is extremely low, but what are the chances the recent X1.6 had an impact on the ongoing communications outages for cellular data? I'm just looking at some graphs and it seems like they happened at nearly the same time, a bit later on the outages side. Just speculating.. https://www.space.com/sun-2-solar-flares-february-22-2024-cell-phone-outages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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