57 minutes ago, mozy said:

I don't really understand the fuss about this region, it has yet to produce anything that's worth of mentioning (even on the farside). Doesn't look anything special so far either 😅

It's chonky, and that's good enough for me! The umbra alone is almost 3 times the cross-sectional area of Earth, which isn't all that common. I think the last time we saw a spot of similar size was 3310; but that wasn't very complex either and didn't produce much activity if I recall correctly (maybe someone will correct me on that), so you're right that it's probably nothing to celebrate just yet. Still cool though.

10 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Hey @Ingolf  No offense taken here. Seriously.   We have had some recent problems with craziness of which I may even have encouraged inadvertently.  Not your problem at all. Mike/Hagrid. 

😄 i say, if this world hasnt driven you a bit crazy, then you must be mad

11 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

It's chonky, and that's good enough for me! The umbra alone is almost 3 times the cross-sectional area of Earth, which isn't all that common. I think the last time we saw a spot of similar size was 3310; but that wasn't very complex either and didn't produce much activity if I recall correctly (maybe someone will correct me on that), so you're right that it's probably nothing to celebrate just yet. Still cool though.

Indeed. From N15 lat to N 21 currently. Plus something seems to be irritating it. Currently produced three mid level C class. May even still be in a growth phase.  

17 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Indeed. From N15 lat to N 21 currently. Plus something seems to be irritating it. Currently produced three mid level C class. May even still be in a growth phase.  

The negatives developing just under the leading positive is what caused the C class flares.

im very excited about this one even if its just eye candy but ive an inkling its going to deliver, i sure hope so. its already spectacular imo

It doesn’t look to magnetically complex at the moment but it does look like it’s growing according to SDOs image sequence.

 

 

By the way, is the large spot even part of the trailing region behind it?

2 hours ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

The negatives developing just under the leading positive is what caused the C class flares.

I now see at least one of those negatives, small to be sure but definitely hot magnetically. Btw 3575 just popped up on regions due to return. Should be about S 26-30 assuming there is anything left of it, that is……

everyone on twitter is talking about how big this region is but didnt we have some along this size this cycle already?

In overall area, yes, absolutely @MinYoongi but we have only recently been seeing bigger ones. I don’t use x personally. But our archives should show at least three large areas over the last two years over 500 millionths. 

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

everyone on twitter is talking about how big this region is but didnt we have some along this size this cycle already?

 

I like this region. Looks to be still developing. Just noticed that new sunspots are forming to the south of large one in front and the trailing region looks to be getting better on intensitygram.

Nothing is in the way of the leading positive polarity spot. This one does look to be one of the strong polarity spots as the magnetogram data in the center of the umbra isn't being processed correctly.

1 hour ago, Chris_Wicklund said:

I like this region. Looks to be still developing. Just noticed that new sunspots are forming to the south of large one in front and the trailing region looks to be getting better on intensitygram.

yes, there are even more than when i pointed them out

14 hours ago, Ingolf said:

Second one is that 3590 will produce the biggest earth directed Flare in this SC in exactly 86 hours. Remember my words ☝️ 

So that would be 2024-02-23 at 07:22 UTC... let's see 😃

Edited February 20, 20241 yr by FredSchuller

5 hours ago, FredSchuller said:

So that would be 2024-02-23 at 07:22 UTC... let's see 😃

im voting higher!

i'll place my bet at 2024-02-24 at 19:24 UTC !!!! HAH!!
HIGHER OR LOWER PEOPLE?!

 

edit.. rule : you cant bet on the limb of disappointment thats a void bet, no cheating!

Edited February 20, 20241 yr by cheebee
rules

i think its a grower not a shower 

A better view this morning. A product of a strong polarity spot and real time processing.

45 minutes ago, cheebee said:

im voting higher!

i'll place my bet at 2024-02-24 at 19:24 UTC !!!! HAH!!
HIGHER OR LOWER PEOPLE?!

 

edit.. rule : you cant bet on the limb of disappointment thats a void bet, no cheating!

I bet it will be another disappointment without any earth directed eruption. 

Sunspot count for this region, currently 5, should increase with the next update, to at least 10 I'd guess.  No deltas... yet.

1 hour ago, Maciej Dunst said:

I bet it will be another disappointment without any earth directed eruption. 

thats a fair bet

i'll give you 9/1 odds

 

 

2 hours ago, cheebee said:

im voting higher!

i'll place my bet at 2024-02-24 at 19:24 UTC !!!! HAH!!
HIGHER OR LOWER PEOPLE?!

 

edit.. rule : you cant bet on the limb of disappointment thats a void bet, no cheating!

New here, still learning, but feels like there could be a significantly sized flare, but I'm not sure about largest of the cycle, although I could see that scenario having a possibility.

I would hope we get by with at most a small hit from the edge of any outburst.

I've noticed larger eruptions tend to happen when they are still around the leading/leaving edges. Nonetheless, I'll put a bet on an earlier time;
2024-02-23 around 1100 UTC

1 hour ago, Maciej Dunst said:

I bet it will be another disappointment without any earth directed eruption. 

fair enough 😁

1 uur terug, Trip zei:

but feels like there could be a significantly sized flare, but I'm not sure about largest of the cycle, although I could see that scenario having a possibility.

big region does not equal big flare potential... it's all about magnetic complexity and currently it doesn't look complex enough for big flares. 

1 uur terug, Trip zei:

I would hope we get by with at most a small hit from the edge of any outburst.

wrong side of the limb for that 😉 keep in mind that the eastern limb has lower potential for Earthward directed component from a wide CME as it's against the Parker spiral. CME's launched on the western limb have a higher potential for an Earthward directed component from a wide CME.

PS.: welcome on the forum 😉

1 hour ago, Trip said:

New here, still learning, but feels like there could be a significantly sized flare, but I'm not sure about largest of the cycle, although I could see that scenario having a possibility. 

this region is not even in top 25 regions by size of this cycle

and it is not complex at all so it will give us nothing

Very beautiful and kinda calming

3 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

A better view this morning. A product of a strong polarity spot and real time processing.

 

Just now, endigogo said:

Very beautiful and kinda calming

whoops meant to reply with this