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What to expect during the geomagnetic storm from the X2.8 solar flare?


Carrington45X

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12 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Your geomagnetic latitude is a major factor.   Example:  In the United States an individual located in our state of Minnesota is more likely to see Aurora than an individual located at the same physical latitude in our state of Washington.  Unfortunately I live in Washington!  Haha 

I often see the aurora borealis at kp 6+, living in the south of Poland

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27 minutes ago, arjemma said:

It's going strong in Nordkapp in the north of Norway right now. No surprise though since it's so far north but it's nice to look at and compare with the data: https://nordkapp.panomax.com/

Thanks for sharing that!!  Way cool. Bz swung north for now but I got a really nice panoramic view!  Mike. 

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10 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Thanks for sharing that!!  Way cool. Bz swung north for now but I got a really nice panoramic view!  Mike. 

No problem, that web cam is one of the best out there for aurora here in Scandinavia at least. If they would have dimmed the lights on all the buildings and the globe it would be even better but they have tourists so I'm sure they can't do that. It is a really cool cam nonetheless. It has a nice archive as well.

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9 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

No way this is happening! 💩

Start ready, almost! dark, warm coffee and then....bz north.🙈

Wow, what a hobby.

I'm so sorry for laughing but this comment basically explained exactly how it is being an aurora hunter 99% of the time 😂
 

I really do hope it gets better. I'm trying to make sens of the data right now and see if there are any flux ropes hiding in it. It kind seems like it but I have to study it further. Anyone who have seen a flux rope yet?

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Zojuist, arjemma zei:

I'm so sorry for laughing but this comment basically explained exactly how it is being an aurroa hunter 99% of the time 😂
 

I really do hope it gets better. I'm trying to make sens of the data right now and see if there are any flux ropes hiding in it. It kind seems like it but I have to study it further. Anyone who have seen a flux rope yet?

Hahaha.

Yeah, that is exactly the way it goes most of the time.🤪

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6 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said:

So both of them have already hit us 🤔

It's hard to tell exactly when the last one hit but it was sometime between 05:56 UTC and 07:38 UTC since there was a blackout in the data. It's hard to tell if it's just one or two but it looks like there was one main one throughout today at least. 

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8 minutes ago, arjemma said:

It's hard to tell exactly when the last one hit but it was sometime between 05:56 UTC and 07:38 UTC since there was a blackout in the data. It's hard to tell if it's just one or two but it looks like there was one main one throughout today at least. 

Yeah there is only a G1 geomagnetic storm that's a weak storm

Just now, Brenden Norris said:

Yeah there is only a G1 geomagnetic storm that's a weak storm

There is only a minor G1 geomagnetic storm forecasted for today

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3 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said:

Yeah there is only a G1 geomagnetic storm that's a weak storm

There is only a minor G1 geomagnetic storm forecasted for today

We will have to wait for the GFZ Potsdam to see what Kp will be official. I think it's close to kp 6 but not entirely there.

Yes this is a rather weak storm and we wasn't expecting anything more either since this was only a glancing blow. The average predictions was kp 3-5 so that was close to the result this time.

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4 minutes ago, arjemma said:

We will have to wait for the GFZ Potsdam to see what Kp will be official. I think it's close to kp 6 but not entirely there.

Yes this is a rather weak storm and we wasn't expecting anything more either since this was only a glancing blow. The average predictions was kp 3-5 so that was close to the result this time.

Yeah I kinda knew it was going to be weak

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1 hour ago, tniickck said:

there is absolutely no way that the sky in Moscow just cleared up for the first time since the beginning of the November and Bz swung north

Sorry buddy.  Story of my life for the last fifty years.  Hoping for a good shot this SC finally!

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Hey, all. A question about this one and comparing it to the event on the evening of December 1st. I was surprised to see the nT reach almost similar numbers to the December 1st event but the aurora display was so much different. It was quite weak and not really visible to the eye. Does this have to do with the fact that the Dec1 event had a full halo and was earth directed? 
 

secondly… I’ve been wondering if anyone knows - can the numbers technically be very low, say -15nT but in theory have an incredibly powerful display? Or do the numbers almost always correlate to the strength of the display?

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Saw some nice auroras yesterday right when it got dark at 17:00 local time (15:00 utc). Super rare to see them this early. This was in southern Finland where auroras typically look like this during Kp5 conditions around magnetic midnight. 

20231218_101116.jpg

Edited by Aurora Compass
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