Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, tniickck said: swl website or app are there any? i am ready to sign up (if free) Yes there is how do you think the professionals learned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) We've got 2 things to help us know when a CME is near L1. ACE's EPAMp and STEREO A, which both seem to be taking their daily vacations. The CME launched from the western side of the Sun, so it should impact SA first. The heads up from ACE's EPAMp varies from several hours to not any with smaller events. Edited December 16, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, tniickck said: protons rise few hours before the arrival, Bt speed etc rise AT the time of arrival How do the protons get to the satellite before everything else rises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yes there is how do you think the professionals learned solar weather as a forecasting object is absolutely dead in Russia so i've got nothing to do with it Just now, Brenden Norris said: How do the protons get to the satellite before everything else rises cause they have higher speed Edited December 16, 2023 by tniickck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah but DSCOVR doesn't need EPAM it has Bt and Bz GSM Two entirely different things. The EPAM gives an overview of the density at various proton energies, as well as for electrons, and thus allows you to know in advance when a CME will hit, as they will start rising beforehand. And ACE also measures Bt and Bz. 7 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Where do you find data for EPAM? Here. Or even on the front page of this very website. The fact that you don't know this makes it pretty obvious that you don't really have a very firm grasp on how this works. No shame in that, and no offense, but I sense a bit of Dunning-Kruger going on here. 6 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah the other data will also rise upon arrival Not as good as seeing the EPAM rise some hours beforehand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: We've got 2 things to help us know when a CME is near L1. ACE's EPAMp and STEREO A, which both seem to be taking their daily vacations. The CME launched from the western side of the Sun, so it should impact SA first. The heads up from ACE's EPAMp varies from several hours to not any with smaller events. Yeah but STEREO A is not far behind on the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: How do the protons get to the satellite before everything else rises Higher energy, which means they're moving faster. That's why you will also see them rise sequentially on the EPAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It should arrive soon if it hasn't yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Well I give up for this event, clear skies & no hit yet, I'm off to bed 🙃 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: It should arrive soon if it hasn't yet You wrote recently that the blow was long overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 I'll guess that the CME is going to be 9 hours later than the prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 24 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: I'll guess that the CME is going to be 9 hours later than the prediction. Yep I guess so That's why they have a geomagnetic storm on the 17th also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Protons are rising, it should be arriving in the next hour or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sascha Marti Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Why is everybody so hyped about this haha nothing happens as ever wake me up when this kills our communication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: Protons are rising, it should be arriving in the next hour or two. how can you pinpoint that so exactly? noaa wasnt that far off with their 0UTC forecast, in case youre right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minuten geleden, Sascha Marti zei: Why is everybody so hyped about this haha nothing happens as ever wake me up when this kills our communication Welcome! Kills our communication is a bit over the top haha, but these partial halo CMEs are often hard to predict and can end up as a big disappointment. But we should have patience, we can not call it a miss yet. 😁 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 The CME might have impacted SA while its data was down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: how can you pinpoint that so exactly? noaa wasnt that far off with their 0UTC forecast, in case youre right. More like 03z arrival, but there are going to be two separate CME arrivals and the second one which is from the X flare will arrive around 09z. The current time is 01z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: The CME might have impacted SA while its data was down. SA down too, eh? Think it might have anything to do with the CME itself, or just coincidence? These old workhorses have seen their better days, wouldn't exactly surprise me if they are just randomly failing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 whats SA 2 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: More like 03z arrival, but there are going to be two separate CME arrivals and the second one which is from the X flare will arrive around 09z. The current time is 01z NOAA/SWPC updated the geomagnetic forecast to still include possible moderate (G2) storm conditions based on a passage sometime within the next 6-12 hours. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, Philalethes said: SA down too, eh? Think it might have anything to do with the CME itself, or just coincidence? These old workhorses have seen their better days, wouldn't exactly surprise me if they are just randomly failing. I'd just guess it is how the data is being collected, where ever it is. Not sure. 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: whats SA STEREO A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: whats SA Just shorthand for STEREO-A; seems like it's not updating at the moment either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Just shorthand for STEREO-A; seems like it's not updating at the moment either. it does that often though. which CME impacted SA maybe? The first or the X2.8 one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: which CME impacted SA maybe? The first or the X2.8 one? I think the X2.8 is the only CME unaccounted for. SA came back with a Bt near 20nT and proton levels are high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I think the X2.8 is the only CME unaccounted for. SA came back with a Bt near 20nT and proton levels are high. ? i dont get it sorry you said the cme maybe impacted SA, i dont know which CME you mean since we have more than one on the way. im a bit dense today (pun intended) so please explain it for dummies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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