Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Then what are the other spikes from earlier today they have to be from something Yes but the speed just doesn't change something has to cause it to slow down As already addressed above: we don't know for certain what the original speed even was, nor the exact direction, that's educated guesswork based on the imagery, particularly from the LASCO coronagrams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Trust me they don't guess that's like saying I guess that the sun is 1 billion years old and it's not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: But you know what they say the data doesn't lie Exactly, great point; which is precisely why we know that the CME from that event isn't even close yet, since we're yet to see any rise in the EPAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Then what are the other spikes from earlier today they have to be from something The earlier spike was a change in the solar wind density with a IMF reverse shock. 7 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Good guessing ha ha you're funny the professionals don't have time to guess not trying to be rude All forecasting has some guessing, just some things more than others. Also, I forecast some CME shock arrivals when a CME is visible enough in coronagraph imagery. Edited December 16, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: Trust me they don't guess that's like saying I guess that the sun is 1 billion years old and it's not Very poor attempt at an analogy. As already mentioned above, they make educated guesses, but those guesses are not at all precise at this moment. Read my above post about these professionals and you'll probably realize what we mean eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 But I'm not going to guess on how old the sun is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 7 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I don't think so, as 1.4 million mph is ~625 km/s, at which speed it wouldn't have reached Earth by now at all; I think they're just misremembering what the claimed speed actually was (probably saw some claim about ~4 million mph, I saw some claims like that circulating in, uh, "less educated" circles; as if mph is even a common way to describe CME speeds, heh), and that they also don't understand that it's not as simple as just dividing 1 au by this to get the correct average transit time. Sorry for the mistake, I wrote it in km/h :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 what's going on @Brenden Norris the fact NOAA misprognosed the CME passage is explainable. as i said before the X2.8 flare happened too much west to be geoeffective but it had pretty nice speed and it could "spin" cuz of Parker's spiral in our direction so this CME and the following geomagnetic storm was really hard to forecast and you mustn't blame NASA and so on because the humanity cant now forecast really accurate because we have only a few really useful satellite for this, the rest of the work is done by people and their guesses supported by physics and our own experience 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: But I'm not going to guess on how old the sun is Before we knew the age of the sun we did guess on that as well. We humans do guess when we aren’t 100% sure. These are educated guesses like @Philalethes says (I’m out of likes but I agree on everything you have said). Weather forecast is still guessing but we have enough data right now that the guesses are fairly accurate but never 100%. In space weather we don’t even have half the data that weather forecasters do so that’s why there is more guessing in space weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 ACE doesn't update, so how will I know when the impact will occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: ACE doesn't update, so how will I know when the impact will occur? Welp, it gets here when it gets here heh, seen by the DSCOVR satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: ACE doesn't update, so how will I know when the impact will occur? You're right, it seems to be stuck at ~21:35Z (at the time of writing this it's ~22:55Z for reference). For all we know the EPAM could have started rising, I don't think DSCOVR has any EPAM measurement like ACE has. 10 minutes ago, arjemma said: I’m out of likes but I agree on everything you have said Same, this last page really took its toll on my supply, heh. Now I know how hamateur must feel all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 And honestly DSCOVR is better than ACE the data is more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: And honestly DSCOVR is better than ACE the data is more accurate dscovr lags more actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 minutes ago, Philalethes said: You're right, it seems to be stuck at ~21:35Z (at the time of writing this it's ~22:55Z for reference). For all we know the EPAM could have started rising, I don't think DSCOVR has any EPAM measurement like ACE has. Yeah but DSCOVR doesn't need EPAM it has Bt and Bz GSM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah but DSCOVR doesn't need EPAM it has Bt and Bz GSM Those are not the same thing. ACE can also measure Bt an Bz. EPAM is an instrument that measures electrons and protons. Edited December 16, 2023 by arjemma 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 And you don't always rely on EPAM because you have all the other data about a CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah but DSCOVR doesn't need EPAM it has Bt and Bz GSM protons always start rising before the arrival. dont act like you understand something in solar weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: And you don't always rely on EPAM because you have all the other data about a CME We use all the data available to come to a conclusion so I’m not really sure what you mean. Of course we use more sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Where do you find data for EPAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: And you don't always rely on EPAM because you have all the other data about a CME it is impossible to predict accurate arrival time, so you really should Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, tniickck said: protons always start rising before the arrival. dont act like you understand something in solar weather Do you understand something in solar weather did you take a class in solar weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: Where do you find data for EPAM? swl website or app 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: Do you understand something in solar weather did you take a class in solar weather are there any? i am ready to sign up (if free) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, tniickck said: protons always start rising before the arrival. dont act like you understand something in solar weather Yeah the other data will also rise upon arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: Yeah the other data will also rise upon arrival protons rise few hours before the arrival, Bt speed etc rise AT the time of arrival Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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