mozy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah but even Bpearthwatch said it was going to hit this morning How about not going after what random YouTubers say and go after actual forecasts from people that know what they're talking about 😛 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Because it would hit the satellites before it hits us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah but even Bpearthwatch said it was going to hit this morning Forecasting space weather events are a bit tougher than forecasting weather on Earth. The CME will certainly arrive within the next 24 hours, maybe most likely within the next 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Yeah the forecasters are Noaa and they said it would hit earth at 20:00:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 10 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: According to this image it was supposed to have hit us at 20:00:00 That is just a prognosis, not a fact. This is just a hunch, a guideline. The CME that we are waiting for has not arrived yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Then it has slowed down if it hasn't arrived yet as predicted by the forecasters The forecasters were right about the other CME that recently hit us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: Then it has slowed down if it hasn't arrived yet as predicted by the forecasters It isn't that it has slowed down. It is just that there isn't much to go off of to make a forecast compared to everything we have on Earth to forecast weather events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: Then it has slowed down if it hasn't arrived yet as predicted by the forecasters We don’t know that. All the times they enter are usually +/- 7-12 hours or something like that. You can’t go on forecasts like that when it comes to space weather. We don’t have good enough instruments to calculate the exact speed on the way to earth. We have no idea what happens between SOHO and DSCOVR/ACE. We have mathematic equations we calculate it with but they are not 100% accurate. They aren’t even 80% accurate at best. We just can’t say an exact time. It’s not possible as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 As seen in this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: As seen in this image That image does not show an arrival time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Then it has slowed down if it hasn't arrived yet as predicted by the forecasters The forecasters were right about the other CME that recently hit us The forecast is just a forecast. Tons of factors could be different in reality from that forecast, like the CME having been slower from the very beginning, or a different direction, and so on. Trying to model the evolution of a CME from just looking at the satellite imagery we have is extremely difficult. And forecasters getting one CME right, whichever one you're referring to, does certainly not mean they get every single one right; they are in fact very frequently wrong, perhaps more so than they are right at this point in time when space weather forecasting is still in its infancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Yes the image does show an arrival time that flare happened on the 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 15 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: According to Noaa it was supposed to hit at 16:00:00 and it's passed that time so maybe it has slowed down If you think that the CME hit us at 16UTC, explain how it got here at a speed of 450 km/s. The flare was 2 days ago and at this speed it would have taken about 4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 And it should be fairly easy to forecast when it will arrive because they have to measure the speed it left the sun. Because it left the sun at 1.4 million mph at least I believe it did not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: And it should be fairly easy to forecast when it will arrive because they have to measure the speed it left the sun. It isn't that easy, the entire shock of the CME doesn't reach 1AU at the same time. The CME shock structure can be complex and we didn't take a good direct hit from this CME. Edited December 16, 2023 by Jesterface23 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 That's the thing other flares they have gotten right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: And it should be fairly easy to forecast when it will arrive because they have to measure the speed it left the sun. It’s definitely not that easy at all. There are other factors in place like how fast the solar wind is still going, if particles before it had cleared the way and so on. It’s not as simple as an s = vt equation and boom we have a definite time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: it should be fairly easy to forecast Ah, yes. It should be fairly easy to make high-yield fusion reactors too, yet here we are. Fact is: it's not at all easy to forecast. Not only is it very difficult to accurately gauge the exact speed and direction from the imagery, but it's also difficult to account for all the complexities of the given situation in interplanetary space. This could (and hopefully will) be mitigated in the future with increased satellite coverage, and just like we have improved our weather forecasting capabilities here on Earth we might be able to significantly improve our space weather forecasting capabilities in the coming decades. But for now it remains quite hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Brenden Norris said: That's the thing other flares they have gotten right Yea but that was basically just good guessing… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: And it should be fairly easy to forecast when it will arrive because they have to measure the speed it left the sun. Because it left the sun at 1.4 million mph at least I believe it did not sure You are confusing the speed of X-rays with the speed of CMEs. At this speed it would reach Earth in less than 20 minutes Edited December 16, 2023 by Adrian Kobyłecki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Good guessing ha ha you're funny the professionals don't have time to guess not trying to be rude 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 4 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: You are confusing the speed of X-rays with the speed of CMEs. At this speed it would reach Earth in less than 20 minutes I don't think so, as 1.4 million mph is ~625 km/s, at which speed it wouldn't have reached Earth by now at all; I think they're just misremembering what the claimed speed actually was (probably saw some claim about ~4 million mph, I saw some claims like that circulating in, uh, "less educated" circles; as if mph is even a common way to describe CME speeds, heh), and that they also don't understand that it's not as simple as just dividing 1 au by this to get the correct average transit time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Then what are the other spikes from earlier today they have to be from something 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I don't think so, as 1.4 million mph is ~625 km/s, at which speed it wouldn't have reached Earth by now at all; I think they're just misremembering what the claimed speed actually was (probably saw some claim about ~4 million mph, I saw some claims like that circulating in, uh, "less educated" circles; as if mph is even a common way to describe CME speeds, heh), and that they also don't understand that it's not as simple as just dividing 1 au by this to get the correct average transit time. Yes but the speed just doesn't change something has to cause it to slow down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Brenden Norris said: Good guessing ha ha you're funny the professionals don't have time to guess not trying to be rude Guessing is exactly what the professionals do in this discipline; educated guesses, but guesses nonetheless. Even weather prediction here on Earth are still guesses, albeit more successful. Also, keep in mind that various people here frequently exchange some words with these professionals through channels like X and YouTube and email and so on, so it's not like they're all total strangers sitting in ivory towers and dishing out immutable prophecies. They're quite approachable, and will readily admit the fact that there's still a ton of guesswork involved in trying to forecast space weather. I would implore you to contact some of them and ask them about it yourself, in a respectful manner naturally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 But you know what they say the data doesn't lie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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