Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ? i dont get it sorry We'll just find out in a few hours if it is the X Class flare CME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 i already understood it. sorry! time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: you said the cme maybe impacted SA, i dont know which CME you mean since we have more than one on the way. im a bit dense today (pun intended) so please explain it for dummies 2 CMEs arrived together on the 15th, unless I'm missing another one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: ? i dont get it sorry you said the cme maybe impacted SA, i dont know which CME you mean since we have more than one on the way. im a bit dense today (pun intended) so please explain it for dummies There was no data from SA for a little while there, so they suggested that the CME might have impacted it during that time since we couldn't know. Now it just came back and is showing a high Bt, so might be incoming now. As for which one, it looks from Enlil like all the ones that were launched in quick succession from around the time of the flare are very close to each other, practically just one big pile, so I'm not sure if it's that easy to separate them out. Might make for some turbulent fluctuations I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: 2 CMEs arrived together on the 15th, unless I'm missing another one. SA is a bit west of us so in for a better hit of the CME, right? solarham / noaa said impact in the next 6h or so, i think. 2 minutes ago, Philalethes said: There was no data from SA for a little while there, so they suggested that the CME might have impacted it during that time since we couldn't know. Now it just came back and is showing a high Bt, so might be incoming now. As for which one, it looks from Enlil like all the ones that were launched in quick succession from around the time of the flare are very close to each other, practically just one big pile, so I'm not sure if it's that easy to separate them out. Might make for some turbulent fluctuations I guess. is this still true then? with the slower than expected? i dont know how much earlier stuff usually impacts stereo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: SA is a bit west of us so in for a better hit of the CME, right? solarham / noaa said impact in the next 6h or so, i think. SA is "Ahead" and to our west again as it passed us earlier this year. It should be getting the better hit by a little bit. 6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: is this still true then? with the slower than expected? i dont know how much earlier stuff usually impacts stereo As the expected speed goes down, so does the expected potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 it swung south on stereo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 (edited) It is possible SA was hit by a CIR or SIR as well which could also explain the high Bt and elevated protons. I just noticed there is CH that should have arrived at L1 on the 14th or 15th. .......... ...though it might be actually missing now after region 3415 removed it from existence. Edited December 17, 2023 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: 43 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: ...though it might be actually missing now after region 3415 removed it from existence. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 i still dont get it. i think its the cme though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: i still dont get it. i think its the cme though! I also agree this is the CME we are seeing at STEREO. Protons shooting up to 250,000 and falling quickly is a classic arrival signature, and stereo should be in the sheath now. I do wonder what, if anything else, is coming 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 31 minutes ago, Landon Moeller said: I also agree this is the CME we are seeing at STEREO. Protons shooting up to 250,000 and falling quickly is a classic arrival signature, and stereo should be in the sheath now. I do wonder what, if anything else, is coming When do you think we could see impact and what impact are we still speaking off due to it being late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 It could arrive pretty much at any moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 But we know that it is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 1 hour ago, MinYoongi said: what impact are we still speaking off due to it being late? The Bz is holding south currently, so if the shock can amplify that, possibly we can get to a brief G2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 The CME looks to have arrived during DSCOVRs down time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 (edited) not surprised at all that it barely hit us Edited December 17, 2023 by tniickck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Womp, Womp. Quick comparison against ENLIL. Looks like a really weak impact maybe 12 - 15 hours after the ENLIL forecast. These edge cases are tough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Well at least Fairbanks Alaska and Yellowknife Canada are getting something good. Kp5 finally although only the Reindeer and Moose are up now. Haha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 4 hours ago, tniickck said: not surprised at all that it barely hit us Surprised to read this when you forecasted Kp9- earlier 😅 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 Well is it still rising from this morning or has something else arrived? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 16 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Surprised to read this when you forecasted Kp9- earlier 😅 i didnt forecast this. i said that this cme could hit us with Kp4 to Kp9-. my forecast was G3 with a little chance of G4, but it flew over us and now the maximum seems to be Kp6+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 (edited) Looks to be intensifying from what I can see here. So far anyway… If the bz holds south or goes further south Kp 6 for next hour is a good possibility imo Edited December 17, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 I think it may go up to g3 for a while. I wonder if I will be able to see it from Poland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted December 17, 2023 Share Posted December 17, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: I think it may go up to g3 for a while. I wonder if I will be able to see it from Poland Your geomagnetic latitude is a major factor. Example: In the United States an individual located in our state of Minnesota is more likely to see Aurora than an individual located at the same physical latitude in our state of Washington. Unfortunately I live in Washington! Haha Edited December 17, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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