arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 5 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: I guess it's already arrived I don’t think that the X-class CME but time will tell. EPAM should go up a bit at least. This is extremely weak so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, arjemma said: Nie sądzę, żeby była to klasa X CME, ale czas pokaże. EPAM powinien przynajmniej trochę wzrosnąć. To jest na razie wyjątkowo słabe. I don't think it will be a hard hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 1 minute ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: I don't think it will be a hard hit Yes I also think it will be a rather weak hit but not as weak as the parameters are hardly moving. Right now it’s almost ambient solar wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said: I guess it's already arrived Not yet. You will see the White Bt line spike along with the Density, Speed, and Temp. Though ACE has been a bit buggy lately, so the last 3 are a bit jagged. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Average of all predictions for the arrival time on the CME scoreboard is 02:47 UTC and only Kp 3.4 - 5.5 🙄 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) It better hit now that skies are gonna clear up here in the next hour... Not looking likely atm though Edited December 16, 2023 by mozy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrington45X Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 I'm in kp9 zone according to NOAA... should I see anything out of the ordinary tonight? (Auroras, radiation increase, etc.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Carrington45X said: I'm in kp9 zone according to NOAA... Can you link the NOAA page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrington45X Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Just now, Carrington45X said: Yeah, that isn't a forecast. It is roughly how far south the aurora can be viewed with what Kp index value is reached. So currently the forecast would be somewhere between the Kp5 and Kp7 lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carrington45X Posted December 16, 2023 Author Share Posted December 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Yeah, that isn't a forecast. It is roughly how far south the aurora can be viewed with what Kp index value is reached. So currently the forecast would be somewhere between the Kp5 and Kp7 lines. Gotchya. Yeah, I live in the Midwest, so I don't see an aurora unless its kp8-kp9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) Looks like its finally hitting Europe. Kiruna magnetometer taking a sharp dive. Looks rather weak so far however. Unfortunately. Edited December 16, 2023 by hamateur 1953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 21 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Looks like its finally hitting Europe. Kiruna magnetometer taking a sharp dive. Looks rather weak so far however. Unfortunately. Except It's not even the CME.. Just the bz dipping south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 It might have hit already because the density spiked earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 16, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 16, 2023 8 minuten geleden, Brenden Norris zei: It might have hit already because the density spiked earlier today. No, you can’t only look at density spikes. There has to be a corresponding jump in solar wind speed, IMF strength and direction and high temperature; followed by a sudden impulse ~50 minutes later by magnetometers. Plus EPAM didn’t peak yet either. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Yeah the CME is definitely past us everything is dropping 2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: No, you can’t only look at density spikes. There has to be a corresponding jump in solar wind speed, IMF strength and direction and high temperature; followed by a sudden impulse ~50 minutes later by magnetometers. Plus EPAM didn’t peak yet either. The solar wind speed and temperature also spiked at the same time the density did earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah the CME is definitely past us everything is dropping You're wrong, it hasn't arrived yet Edited December 16, 2023 by Adrian Kobyłecki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 minuten geleden, Brenden Norris zei: Yeah the CME is definitely past us everything is dropping The solar wind speed and temperature also spiked at the same time the density did earlier today Those few minor jumps aren’t the CME that’s for sure 😉 EPAM was too quiet and as long as EPAM didn’t peak it hasn’t arrived 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 They all spiked at 12:15 UTC in my image above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: It might have hit already because the density spiked earlier today. You may notice that the density changes almost every moment throughout the day Edited December 16, 2023 by Adrian Kobyłecki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 According to this image it was supposed to have hit us at 20:00:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: They all spiked at 12:15 UTC in my image above Here's an example of a more higher end CME arrival, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 Yeah but even Bpearthwatch said it was going to hit this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Brenden Norris said: Yeah but even Bpearthwatch said it was going to hit this morning the forecast often does not come true Edited December 16, 2023 by Adrian Kobyłecki Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brenden Norris Posted December 16, 2023 Share Posted December 16, 2023 According to Noaa it was supposed to hit at 16:00:00 and it's passed that time so maybe it has slowed down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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