Region 3514

[tniickck]

16 minutes ago, Magpie said:

However, I wanted to ask about the strangeness in the image from LASCO C3 right now. Is this somehow related to the latest flare or is it just a some kind of random glitch?
This looks quite unusual and I'm just curious to understand about it.

welcome 

do you mean "flakes" on the images or the darkness on the right? the flakes are some protons from the flare, the darkness on the right side of image is a usual glitch and is not related to it

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Chris_Wicklund said:

New RE-RUN from SOHO analysis looks like more than a “glancing blow” maybe a shoulder blow? 😂 not the core but looks nice (copied as a sticker cause the image size is dumb)

you can always use gyazo or snipping tool to embedd your images or gifs ! thats how i do it  Where is this run from? I looked on the CME scoreboard and iswa NASA website but I cant find it. Is there a KP Prediction with that?

[cgrant26]

56 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

you can always use gyazo or snipping tool to embedd your images or gifs ! thats how i do it  Where is this run from? I looked on the CME scoreboard and iswa NASA website but I cant find it. Is there a KP Prediction with that?

I usually grab it from NOAA's space weather site. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

[MinYoongi]

20 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

I usually grab it from NOAA's space weather site. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

the model wicklund posted is from nasa's version of enlil   I just cant find it on their website, might take a while.

[cgrant26]

US gov websites never make things easy to find. 😊

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

55 minuten geleden, cgrant26 zei:

US gov websites never make things easy to find. 😊

Yeah especially their version of the enlil. I usually end up on the SpaceweatherLive/poollicht.be website and download the image to my smartphone gallery, then pretend to adjust it, so I can then calmy scroll through seperate images.🤣

Edited December 15, 2023 by Malisha Reuvekamp

[Adrian Kobyłecki]

Spaceweather has just published an article that we will have a storm with a force of g1-g2, but according to new NASA forecasts it looked more dangerous https://gyazo.com/11209c48b747b0dea84e84c377493e8e What do you think about it?

Edited December 15, 2023 by Adrian Kobyłecki

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

Spaceweather has just published an article that we will have a storm with a force of g1-g2, but according to new NASA forecasts it looked more dangerous https://gyazo.com/11209c48b747b0dea84e84c377493e8e What do you think about it?

If everything goes according to model, it will be a pretty strong Kp8. however there is not enough confidence cuz the flare was pretty far from central meridian and it can happen as Kp4 or as Kp8+ or even Kp9-

[NEAurora]

1 hour ago, Adrian Kobyłecki said:

Spaceweather has just published an article that we will have a storm with a force of g1-g2, but according to new NASA forecasts it looked more dangerous https://gyazo.com/11209c48b747b0dea84e84c377493e8e What do you think about it?

I think it's an open question as to when it will arrive and how impactful it will be.  Interestingly, the most recent WSA-ENLIL model seems totally out of sync with the official forecast from NOAA.  ENLIL is indicating solid impact around 1600 UTC tomorrow, which would be ~48 hours travel time.  They also push the windspeed up to near 750+ with high plasma densities.  These values would suggest a max kp index of 7-8 if the clock angle is mostly south, even with the almost certain underestimate in Bt from ENLIL (Max Bt < 10?!).

It will be interesting to see if they update their forecast tomorrow morning to match the model, or maybe they don't have a lot of confidence in the model, who knows.  Either way, it's really anyones guess.  My personal (sure to be quite wrong) prediction is that we have a pretty good shock impact sometime around 0000 UTC on the 17th, and maybe a quick push to G2 and brief G3 with some bright red aurora shortly after impact, then some intermittent activity for a while after, but no long "flux-rope" type storming that could push us into G3+ to G4.

Edited December 15, 2023 by NEAurora

[Jesterface23]

The CME from the double peaked M-Class flare yesterday morning is probably easier to forecast (minus there being a CME over the eastern limb). I think a possible L1 arrival will be mid-day to afternoon on the 18th UTC, but with a chance of no arrival due to a CH HSS.

[MinYoongi]

18 hours ago, NEAurora said:

I think it's an open question as to when it will arrive and how impactful it will be.  Interestingly, the most recent WSA-ENLIL model seems totally out of sync with the official forecast from NOAA.  ENLIL is indicating solid impact around 1600 UTC tomorrow, which would be ~48 hours travel time.  They also push the windspeed up to near 750+ with high plasma densities.  These values would suggest a max kp index of 7-8 if the clock angle is mostly south, even with the almost certain underestimate in Bt from ENLIL (Max Bt < 10?!).

It will be interesting to see if they update their forecast tomorrow morning to match the model, or maybe they don't have a lot of confidence in the model, who knows.  Either way, it's really anyones guess.  My personal (sure to be quite wrong) prediction is that we have a pretty good shock impact sometime around 0000 UTC on the 17th, and maybe a quick push to G2 and brief G3 with some bright red aurora shortly after impact, then some intermittent activity for a while after, but no long "flux-rope" type storming that could push us into G3+ to G4.

may i ask why its out of sync with their forecast? Im not as experienced in the model stuff yet, but to me it looks like the model is saying a brief g3 phase? which is what they forecasted as a chance i think? 

I also think your personal forecast does not sound bad  dont talk down on yourself lol

[NEAurora]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

may i ask why its out of sync with their forecast? Im not as experienced in the model stuff yet, but to me it looks like the model is saying a brief g3 phase? which is what they forecasted as a chance i think? 

They updated their forecast shortly after to be a little more inline with the timing/intensity of the ENLIL prediction.  When I posted that, their forecast was (if I remember) for a single 3hr period of G1 after 00UTC on the 17th.  Which seemed in pretty stark contrast to ENLIL which was showing a pretty stout impact around 1600-1800.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, NEAurora said:

They updated their forecast shortly after to be a little more inline with the timing/intensity of the ENLIL prediction.  When I posted that, their forecast was (if I remember) for a single 3hr period of G1 after 00UTC on the 17th.  Which seemed in pretty stark contrast to ENLIL which was showing a pretty stout impact around 1600-1800.

ah, i did not see that! thank you