Region 3514

[tniickck]

28 minutes ago, Aries said:

If the speed of the particels are 2.100km/s than it will take 19,7 hours to earth.

"take a look to the sky just before you die" 

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, tniickck said:

"take a look to the sky just before you die" 

it always slows down on its way to earth, solarham said 48-72h 

also radio emission is not the CME speed i think..

[Hagen72]

Next M1 . AR13514 is on fire...

[MinYoongi]

 

can someone tell me if this is the CME we're expecting? If i do the pause game i see it first appear 15th at 00UTC or a bit earlier, which tells me this cant be the M-Flare CME from last night, right?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 minuut geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 

can someone tell me if this is the CME we're expecting? If i do the pause game i see it first appear 15th at 00UTC or a bit earlier, which tells me this cant be the M-Flare CME from last night, right?

That’s an early model run, keep in mind LASCO data isn’t available yet so a good model run with LASCO data and CME distribution will be much more accurate than an early model run.

again patience my dear 😜

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

That’s an early model run, keep in mind LASCO data isn’t available yet so a good model run with LASCO data and CME distribution will be much more accurate than an early model run.

again patience my dear 😜

😄❤️😄 i just wanted to make sure its not about the m-class flare from the UTC Morning, hehe.  I guess they made this with Stereo-A Data then? Because i dont think they have lasco data we dont have.

[tniickck]

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

it always slows down on its way to earth, solarham said 48-72h 

also radio emission is not the CME speed i think..

i know, just kidding

[Philalethes]

51 minutes ago, Aries said:

If the speed of the particels are 2.100km/s than it will take 19,7 hours to earth.

Well, the thing is that CMEs slow down a fair bit as they travel, so the average transit time would be higher; but in this case I have my doubts as to how accurate that estimate from the radio emission really is.

Also, now we're seeing a little bit of proton activity it seems.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Philalethes
higher, not lower

[MinYoongi]

can the run be the M-Class flare from around 13UTC? I doubt it , right?

I will look at some pictures later to see if it changed after the big flare or shortly before. maybe interesting for you @mozy

[mozy]

17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

can the run be the M-Class flare from around 13UTC? I doubt it , right?

I will look at some pictures later to see if it changed after the big flare or shortly before. maybe interesting for you @mozy

I looked at it after and It's so cool that you can see the flash on the intensity & magnetogram images too, it looks a bit messier now compared to earlier morning but that could also be because It's rotating further away hence making it harder to see specific areas, I definitely don't think It's done yet.

[MinYoongi]

16 minutes ago, mozy said:

I looked at it after and It's so cool that you can see the flash on the intensity & magnetogram images too

so cool, really. i remember you telling me about them changing before/during/after flashes slightly and ive been fascinated with that since, even if its nothing "big" for aurora watchers, as a nerd i love to see it.

Goes seems to struggle because X-Ray data is only trickling in and backfilling every now and then, SUVI is working fine though and gets updated normally.. any info?

 

 

https://gyazo.com/5f06e5f31b4680dc02919fc0dc850730

 

im still so confused. how can it be a full hit? 

[Chris_Wicklund]

I deleted my information after NASA confirmed it was just the shock modeled. Shouldn’t expect much from this CME.

[tniickck]

26 minutes ago, Chris_Wicklund said:

I deleted my information after NASA confirmed it was just the shock modeled. Shouldn’t expect much from this CME.

what do you mean by that? 

[Chris_Wicklund]

1 minute ago, tniickck said:

what do you mean by that? 

NASA modeled the initial CME and then they modeled the shock shortly after. The shock looks scarier on the ENLIL model than the main CME but it’s not impactful. Carina Alden from NASA was saying the shock would provide KP<4 conditions.

[tniickck]

2 minutes ago, Chris_Wicklund said:

NASA modeled the initial CME and then they modeled the shock shortly after. The shock looks scarier on the ENLIL model than the main CME but it’s not impactful. Carina Alden from NASA was saying the shock would provide KP<4 conditions.

thank you

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

2 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei:

so cool, really. i remember you telling me about them changing before/during/after flashes slightly and ive been fascinated with that since, even if its nothing "big" for aurora watchers, as a nerd i love to see it.

Goes seems to struggle because X-Ray data is only trickling in and backfilling every now and then, SUVI is working fine though and gets updated normally.. any info?

 

 

https://gyazo.com/5f06e5f31b4680dc02919fc0dc850730

 

im still so confused. how can it be a full hit? 

Aren't those just old models and new have to be made?

[Jesterface23]

SA looks to be in line for a hit. Hopefully SOHO gives us good news

Edited December 14, 2023 by Jesterface23

[MinYoongi]

22 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

SA looks to be in line for a hit. Hopefully SOHO gives us good news

Crazy how long its taking, right? 

Well like @Chris_Wicklund said, nasa did some model runs based on stereo data and im not 100% sure how much lasco could change the forecasts? ill just attach the tweets here and hope for some infos/opinions  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

3 uren geleden, MinYoongi zei:

 

also radio emission is not the CME speed i think..

Spaceweather.com says it is, or do I misinterpretate that?

[auclectic]

I can't figure out how to get a screen shot under 204 kb, not sure why that's a thing for attachments and can't find the forum in the app lol. Anyway. Preliminary forecasts on the CME scoreboard put the speed at between 950-1100 km/s. With a max KP of 5 and arrival time somewhere on 11/17

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/prediction/detail/2801

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said:

Spaceweather.com says it is, or do I misinterpretate that?

I specifically asked a professional spaceweather forecaster this, this is her answer: 

 

[Jesterface23]

Right now my preliminary time for SA would be ~42 hours as one option or ~56 hours as option 2 for travel times. 

[auclectic]

I think that went up to IV

[Malisha Reuvekamp]

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

I specifically asked a professional spaceweather forecaster this, this is her answer: 

 

Thx!

[MinYoongi]

51 minutes ago, Chris_Wicklund said:

NASA modeled the initial CME and then they modeled the shock shortly after. The shock looks scarier on the ENLIL model than the main CME but it’s not impactful. Carina Alden from NASA was saying the shock would provide KP<4 conditions.