Region 3514

[tniickck]

here it is! already m3

m5

[mozy]

Looks somewhat eruptive

[Philalethes]

36 minutes ago, mozy said:

Looks somewhat eruptive

Yeah, looks like there's some dimming in the 195 Å imagery; doesn't look quite Earth-directed though, but could be some component that hits us. Just playing the waiting game for LASCO again now.

[mozy]

Starting to become delta-galore in this region, small delta spots starting to appear in several areas.

[Philalethes]

7 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

thanks philaletes. do i manually have to search for them now all the time? Using your link i can only see 16:30UTC. Its a bit tedious and SDO still has not updated.. nothing on their news page as well. -.-

I guess until it automatically updates some workaround is needed; looks like you can also use the HMI archive, at least it gave me an image when I selected 7 UTC today.

[tniickck]

@Philalethesdo you think proton event is possible? position is good for proton to arrive by parker's spiral 

[Philalethes]

2 minutes ago, tniickck said:

@Philalethesdo you think proton event is possible? position is good for proton to arrive by parker's spiral 

The position would be pretty good for that, but I'm not sure how eruptive it was at this point. I don't think it's that likely, but it was a pretty solid flare and some noticeable dimming, so could be.

41 minutes ago, mozy said:

Starting to become delta-galore in this region, small delta spots starting to appear in several areas.

Oh yeah, I just downloaded both the i-gram and m-gram to have a closer look, and it's looking pretty good, definitely the most solid region in a little while. Here's a crop of just the most active part of the region:

Maybe we'll see some more activity from this one before it departs.

First imagery from LASCO is in now too, doesn't look to great for any Earth-directed component at first glance, but there was definitely an eruption.

[mozy]

49 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

The position would be pretty good for that, but I'm not sure how eruptive it was at this point. I don't think it's that likely, but it was a pretty solid flare and some noticeable dimming, so could be.

Oh yeah, I just downloaded both the i-gram and m-gram to have a closer look, and it's looking pretty good, definitely the most solid region in a little while. Here's a crop of just the most active part of the region:

Maybe we'll see some more activity from this one before it departs.

First imagery from LASCO is in now too, doesn't look to great for any Earth-directed component at first glance, but there was definitely an eruption.

It is regions like this we've really been missing out on this cycle so far, this is the type of growth I want to see more frequently, we've mostly gotten rapidly growing regions for a few hours only to start decaying right after & not doing much.

Edited December 14, 2023 by mozy

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, mozy said:

Looks somewhat eruptive

 

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

Yeah, looks like there's some dimming in the 195 Å imagery; doesn't look quite Earth-directed though, but could be some component that hits us. Just playing the waiting game for LASCO again now.

yeah, i saw the dimming too. any updates on that?

1 hour ago, Philalethes said:

I guess until it automatically updates some workaround is needed; looks like you can also use the HMI archive, at least it gave me an image when I selected 7 UTC today.

Is it STILL not working? ;/ 

[Philalethes]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

yeah, i saw the dimming too. any updates on that?

Is it STILL not working? ;/ 

I don't think there's much else on the dimming than what we saw, which has mostly subsided by now.

And yeah, the i-gram and m-gram on the SDO data page is still from 12T23Z, so I'm using the HMI archive temporarily; they have a direct link to the latest colored m-gram, but sadly not an equivalent link for the latest colored i-gram, only black and white.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

I don't think there's much else on the dimming than what we saw, which has mostly subsided by now.

And yeah, the i-gram and m-gram on the SDO data page is still from 12T23Z, so I'm using the HMI archive temporarily; they have a direct link to the latest colored m-gram, but sadly not an equivalent link for the latest colored i-gram, only black and white.

Do you think any CME would be likely earth directed or only glancing impact based on its position? personally i'd say its pretty far west already and (take this with a grain of salt since im a noob) it looked to eject to the right also kinda? 

 

thanks for the link! thats much better than searching. i have not found any info on why SDO is not updating but i'll let you guys know if something changes.

[mozy]

19 hours ago, tniickck said:

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/browse/2023/12/13/

Thank you for this btw, this sure was a big helper in situations like these, a bit confusing to work around at first, now that I've gotten used to it It's no big deal finding the updated images. CTRL+F & search for HMIBC & scroll all the way down and choose the latest one & right under it is HMIIF aswell, choose the 4096 resolution pictures. (Small "tutorial" just incase someone is still struggling working around it) Make sure It's the right date in the URL too.

Would be cool to see an actual HMI Intensitygram movie of Its growth though.

Edited December 14, 2023 by mozy

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

just incase someone is still struggling working around it)

Would be cool to see an actual HMI Intensitygram movie of Its growth though.

that would be my dumb ass!   Thank you for the tutorial.

 

I hope the data gets backfilled and a movie can be created. I mean, the Data is there.. SDO's webpresence just seems to be broken  

Has the region changed ("decayed") since the M5 ? @mozy

[tniickck]

10 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

that would be my dumb ass!   Thank you for the tutorial.

 

I hope the data gets backfilled and a movie can be created. I mean, the Data is there.. SDO's webpresence just seems to be broken  

Has the region changed ("decayed") since the M5 ? @mozy

it is still complex. it might have decayed but it has a lot of potential for X-flare cuz of strong gamma and perhaps delta configurations

[mozy]

12 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

Has the region changed ("decayed") since the M5 ? @mozy

Some spots decayed but it grew in other areas instead, definitely still has the potential for strong flares.

[MinYoongi]

lasco backfilled.. earth directed or not?  

[Adrian Kobyłecki]

another M flare

[MinYoongi]

yep

[tniickck]

here comes the other one

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, mozy said:

Thank you for this btw, this sure was a big helper in situations like these, a bit confusing to work around at first, now that I've gotten used to it It's no big deal finding the updated images. CTRL+F & search for HMIBC & scroll all the way down and choose the latest one & right under it is HMIIF aswell, choose the 4096 resolution pictures. (Small "tutorial" just incase someone is still struggling working around it) Make sure It's the right date in the URL too.

Would be cool to see an actual HMI Intensitygram movie of Its growth though.

Yeah, that's a great resource. The HMI archive I mentioned previously also has them, and is a bit more orderly in one way, but a bit cumbersome in other ways (e.g. having to click through all the date selectors if you want to look at previous images or the colored i-gram); and I found when downloading the images automatically that the SDO catalog is way faster, no idea why JSOC has such low upload speeds.

Great for filling in all the missing images for a little lapse, this from the last ~18 hours:

And another M-flare from this region too, certainly not unexpected.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[MinYoongi]

Nice video.

"

Additionally, at approximately 14/0600 UTC, a nearly 25° long prominence
centered near S20W90 was observed erupting from the SW limb. The
associated CME appears to have more southerly trajectory and is expected
to be ahead of the Sun-Earth line. Immediately following this eruption,
an additional CME was observed departing the Western limb. This CME is
thought to be associated with the aforementioned M5 flare. SWPC
forecasters await additional coronagraph imagery to conduct a proper
analysis of this event."

[Philalethes]

Now we're talking.

[Ester89]

Oh, Yeah!! At last!! 😊

[tniickck]

X2.87

 

[Adrian Kobyłecki]

will be in the top 50 ranking