Region 3514

[hamateur 1953]

4 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

it always slows down on its way to earth, solarham said 48-72h 

also radio emission is not the CME speed i think..

Radio emission is electromagnetic radiation and travels at the speed of light.   Amazing that it doesn’t seem to get tired after traveling so far, but hey. Its still cool. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[auclectic]

Right, but estimated velocity during the radio emission was 2100km/s or thereabouts. Not sure where that number comes from. I was under the impression that a lot of the 11/28 forecasts were based on the initial velocity during radio emission-- because there was such a large data gap. 

[MinYoongi]

from noaa: 

 

A subsequent CME was observed in STEREO-A COR2
beginning after 14/1738 UTC but further coronagraph imagery is needed to
determine the existence and/or timing of an Earth-directed component.

[Philalethes]

Just now, auclectic said:

Right, but estimated velocity during the radio emission was 2100km/s or thereabouts. Not sure where that number comes from. I was under the impression that a lot of the 11/28 forecasts were based on the initial velocity during radio emission-- because there was such a large data gap. 

The estimate is based on previous findings about the relationship between CME speed and the frequency drift rate; i.e. it's the latter that is measured, and the former is an estimate based on that.

I'm not sure how precise it is though, could be confounding factors that makes it sometimes give false readings, not really that familiar with how well of a track record it has as a method. Intuitively I would have expected a burst of that magnitude in that position to bring more proton activity than we've seen though, which makes me think that the estimate might be exaggerated due to some such confounding factor.

[Isatsuki San]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

de noaa: 

 

Here are some images that halo cme shared

[MinYoongi]

39 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Here are some images that halo cme shared

yeop, i saw it! he also thinks not much is earth directed. he was often right.

 

still no lasco, geeeeez..

[Jesterface23]

30 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

still no lasco, geeeeez..

At least when we start receiving the data most or all of the event would be captured by then.

[NEAurora]

32 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

still no lasco, geeeeez..

Lasco seems to have a bit of a sense of humor ....

I'd be more stoked about geomagnetic impacts if the protons were really doing their thing right now, but I'd be a little surprised if we didn't see any impacts from this one.  .... Ideally around 0000 UTC on the 17th.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, NEAurora said:

Lasco seems to have a bit of a sense of humor ....

I'd be more stoked about geomagnetic impacts if the protons were really doing their thing right now, but I'd be a little surprised if we didn't see any impacts from this one.  .... Ideally around 0000 UTC on the 17th.

Do you think something will arrive?

[NEAurora]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you think something will arrive?

I would say I hope something arrives.  But based on SUVI, it certainly looked like the shock at least hewed towards center disk, and it certainly looked like a fast and broad eruption, so I at least think it's more likely than not that we'll see some kind of effect/impact.  What that ends up translating into geomagnetically speaking? that's I question I leave for the folks here that know quite a bit than I do to speculate on...

[Jesterface23]

Woo, SOHO's first C3 images are in. Just need it to fill in the gaps.

[Chris_Wicklund]

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Woo, SOHO's first C3 images are in. Just need it to fill in the gaps.

I believe I see almost a full halo? Hard to tell.

[Jesterface23]

Just now, Chris_Wicklund said:

I believe I see almost a full halo? Hard to tell.

It may be oval or asymmetric. We shall see

[MinYoongi]

nice. so lasco atleast updated, please keep me updated @Jesterface23 😎

10 minutes ago, Chris_Wicklund said:

I believe I see almost a full halo? Hard to tell.

i dont really see it, but im notoriously bad at spotting halos. wish there were more than 3 frames  

doesnt full halo mean direct hit? im confused again with terminology / phenomena. 

[Jesterface23]

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

i dont really see it, but im notoriously bad at spotting halos. wish there were more than 3 frames  

doesnt full halo mean direct hit? im confused again with terminology / phenomena. 

It is pretty much almost out of the imagery now. A little bit of the edge might still be there in the northeast quarter.

Halo pretty much equals Earth directed (unless on the far side). A full halo would be best taking the closest to center impact.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

 

Halo pretty much equals Earth directed (unless on the far side). A full halo would be best taking the closest to center impact.

i know, thats why im confused. model runs made based on Stereo-A and EUV Waves/Dimmings ( linked earlier ) say theres probably a glancing impact at best/most. how can it be a full halo direct hit then? i know lasco gives some more data but *to me* a full direct hit sounds utopic

but maybe im just dense again and misunderstanding stuff.  its pretty late and it was a long day.

lasco updated further.

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

i know, thats why im confused. model runs made based on Stereo-A and EUV Waves/Dimmings ( linked earlier ) say theres probably a glancing impact at best/most. how can it be a full halo direct hit then? i know lasco gives some more data but *to me* a full direct hit sounds utopic

but maybe im just dense again and misunderstanding stuff.  its pretty late and it was a long day.

Heh. Yeah, at this point I am only expecting either a glancing blow where the CME drops off or possibly up closer near the edge of the main bulk.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

Heh. Yeah, at this point I am only expecting either a glancing blow where the CME drops off or possibly up closer near the edge of the main bulk.

that sounds realistic looking at the waves in my opinion.

 

[mozy]

Looks to be decaying quite a bit now actually.

[MinYoongi]

12 minutes ago, mozy said:

Looks to be decaying quite a bit now actually.

Background flux is also going down.

[Jesterface23]

Hopefully I'm proven wrong, but I'll go with an arrival between 06:00Z-18:00Z on the 17th. With that, I'd go with G1 possible and a slight chance of G2. There are other CMEs forecasted to arrive, so IMF influences from those could help.

[Chris_Wicklund]

New RE-RUN from SOHO analysis looks like more than a “glancing blow” maybe a shoulder blow? 😂 not the core but looks nice (copied as a sticker cause the image size is dumb)

[tniickck]

M6.3

[mozy]

Nice double-peak.

M6.3 - M 6.9

[Magpie]

Good afternoon. This is my first time posting on the forum, although I've been following the space weather and all the local discussions for about a couple of months now
This solar flare is definitely impressive, and I will continue to watch with interest as all of this develop, hoping to see something interesting in the sky (I still very sad about the last missed opportunity in November, yeah).
However, I wanted to ask about the strangeness in the image from LASCO C3 right now. Is this somehow related to the latest flare or is it just a some kind of random glitch?
This looks quite unusual and I'm just curious to understand about it.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Magpie