Region 3514

[Philalethes]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

have you looked at suvi for this flare? 

5 minutes ago, tniickck said:

S3 proton event possible? there is a enormously big cme 

Yeah. I do see what looks like a shockwave in the 195 Å imagery, and some dimming now, so there could actually have been a sizeable eruption here. Looked like a mostly impulsive event at first, but it's a pretty strong flare after all. From the looks of it it seems like it's dimming in the general direction of the center of the disc too, so maybe we might even get some Earth-directed component here. Exciting times.

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

No, S1 might be reached. Peak time was a bit short, for an S3 it would be stronger and more eruptive than it now seems. 

That's a comet 😉 also called Sungrazers and most of the times they don't survive because of the heat of the Sun.

Update: Coronal dimming reached stronger levels, the second part of the flare was more of a long duration and it does seem there is a bigger outflow of coronal mass. Most of the ejecta seems to be southward. LASCO imagery will tell more of the CME propagation

So most of us off the earth-sun line to the south with glancing impact possible?

 

welcome to all new users. ❤️ 

Just now, Philalethes said:

 From the looks of it it seems like it's dimming in the general direction of the center of the disc too, so maybe we might even get some Earth-directed component here. Exciting times.

i saw that too but im unsure what to make of it / the meaning of it in terms of earth directed stuff. would that mean a graze/glance?  sander said looks southern. ty

[Philalethes]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

So most of us off the earth-sun line to the south with glancing impact possible?

 

welcome to all new users. ❤️ 

i saw that too but im unsure what to make of it / the meaning of it in terms of earth directed stuff. would that mean a graze/glance?  sander said looks southern. ty

Could mean anything at this point really, just an indication that there does seem to be an eruption, and that there might be something directed towards us. I think we must defer to LASCO to see more closely where it goes.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

So most of us off the earth-sun line to the south with glancing impact possible?

we'll see that when LASCO imagery comes in, can't tell that from just coronal dimming. Just wait a few hours till LASCO data is in and then we'll know more 😉 partial halo CME is still possible

[MinYoongi]

thanks guys. thought lasco is already available, but noticed your screenshot might be from solardemon instead, my bad.

Just now, Vancanneyt Sander said:

we'll see that when LASCO imagery comes in, can't tell that from just coronal dimming. Just wait a few hours till LASCO data is in and then we'll know more 😉 partial halo CME is still possible

 

2 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Could mean anything at this point really, just an indication that there does seem to be an eruption, and that there might be something directed towards us. I think we must defer to LASCO to see more closely where it goes.

ah okay, will you keep me updated?  

thats a fast one, but the CME will likely be slower right? i knowi always get this stuff confused with each other. im sorry.

there is a CME visible in Stereo. is it too far west ( i think) now to use it to see what portions are earth directed? @Philalethes

[Philalethes]

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

thanks guys. thought lasco is already available, but noticed your screenshot might be from solardemon instead, my bad.

 

ah okay, will you keep me updated?  

thats a fast one, but the CME will likely be slower right? i knowi always get this stuff confused with each other. im sorry.

there is a CME visible in Stereo. is it too far west ( i think) now to use it to see what portions are earth directed? @Philalethes

It looks like it's directed somewhat south and "west", same from the dimming, but I really wouldn't say anything conclusive from the STEREO imagery, it's just of too low quality. LASCO will probably update soon for this though, at least that's been the case lately with potential large eruptions since we're probably not the only ones who want to know.

That's a pretty impressive radio emission though, maybe we'll start seeing some protons soon if that's anything close to a correct estimate.

[hamateur 1953]

Wow. I just woke up. Guess we finally got not only our x flare but a record one for this cycle at that!! 😂 

11 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

It looks like it's directed somewhat south and "west", same from the dimming, but I really wouldn't say anything conclusive from the STEREO imagery, it's just of too low quality. LASCO will probably update soon for this though, at least that's been the case lately with potential large eruptions since we're probably not the only ones who want to know.

That's a pretty impressive radio emission though, maybe we'll start seeing some protons soon if that's anything close to a correct estimate.

 

Edited December 14, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Philalethes]

It's also of note that the deflection angle might become relevant if there really is a CME anywhere close to that fast. As described in this paper that I've mentioned in some other threads a while ago we're looking at a deflection angle of as much as 20-30° when the speeds are 1000-2000 km/s:

But I guess we should really await LASCO for now, no reason to get ahead of ourselves before we see a clear sign.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

It's also of note that the deflection angle might become relevant if there really is a CME anywhere close to that fast. As described in this paper that I've mentioned in some other threads a while ago we're looking at a deflection angle of as much as 20-30° when the speeds are 1000-2000 km/s:

But I guess we should really await LASCO for now, no reason to get ahead of ourselves before we see a clear sign.

can you explain this a bit more in depth? I dont really get it. (for dummies:) ) 

 

i also asked dr.tamitha skov a year or so ago, i think she said the radio emission speed is not the CME speed. i discussed this a few times here but i either forgot or got an answer that wasnt definitely.

[Philalethes]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

can you explain this a bit more in depth? I dont really get it.

It just means CMEs that reach those speeds will be deflected to the "east" (i.e. to the left on the normally oriented images) by a certain amount, so in this case that would be more towards us if the CME really is quite fast. But yeah, the radio emissions can be deceptive indeed, so it's time to play the waiting game once more.

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

It just means CMEs that reach those speeds will be deflected to the "east" (i.e. to the left on the normally oriented images) by a certain amount, so in this case that would be more towards us if the CME really is quite fast. But yeah, the radio emissions can be deceptive indeed, so it's time to play the waiting game once more.

ah, i understood it the other way around. thought its gonna deflect more to the west.

[Calder]

8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

can you explain this a bit more in depth? I dont really get it. (for dummies:) )

 

[MinYoongi]

thanks @Calder ❤️ both of the grafics have helped me understand this better, the text alone was a bit rough, haha.

[SpaceWeather5464]

2100 km/s wow! But no proton event yet?

[MinYoongi]

9 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

2100 km/s wow! But no proton event yet?

not yet i think 

[tniickck]

there is absolutely no way that not a single proton didnt fly away from this cme to us

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, tniickck said:

there is absolutely no way that not a single proton didnt fly away from this cme to us

maybe it takes some more time, how long does it usually take?

[tniickck]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

maybe it takes some more time, how long does it usually take?

usually from 1 hour to 2

[Vancanneyt Sander]

9 minuten geleden, tniickck zei:

there is absolutely no way that not a single proton didnt fly away from this cme to us

EPAM electrons show a steady rise but no greater than 10MeV protons arrived yet. Can still come in the next few hours and if they didn’t then no proton event. 

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 

here is a cool video. i dont think its 2200kms though, thats only the radio emission right?

to me it looks like the east stretching dimming is fainter and less "powerful" 

vincent ledvina (a very good photographer i can only recommend) said he does not expect more than a glancing blow from it and the EUV wave was kinda unimpressive. 

posts like the above make it sound like more than a glancing blow which confuses me personally, so many contradicting opinions.

 

 

@Philalethes as you said bulk to the SW, but the "glance or more" part is confusing me. maybe you can bring some light into the dark. (pic is stereo-a)

[Aries]

If the speed of the particels are 2.100km/s than it will take 19,7 hours to earth.

[MinYoongi]

 people are posting stereo-a claiming its a partial halo but as far as i know, stereo is not in the right position to forecast this

[tniickck]

full halo, actually

[Vancanneyt Sander]

10 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

people are posting stereo-a claiming its a partial halo but as far as i know, stereo is not in the right position to forecast this

Stereo-A is close to Earth but in a more favourable position for the CME than Earth. We’ll have to wait for LASCO imagery before making any conclusions.

patience is key in space weather…

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Stereo-A is close to Earth but in a more favourable position for the CME than Earth. We’ll have to wait for LASCO imagery before making any conclusions.

patience is key in space weather…

yeah, i know. trying to be patient as always..  😅 but my twitter feed is exploding with people claiming its full halo etc. even Solarham said Stereo A is in a good position, thats why im so confused.   quote:  "LASCO coronagraph imagery is not yet updated following the X2.8 solar flare around AR 3514, however STEREO Ahead imagery which essentially is now directly Earth facing shows a fast moving, halo CME leaving the Sun. A likely passage past Earth will be possible during the next 48-72 hours. A further update will be provided once LASCO imagery is updated and a CME tracking model is available."