Impact from Nov 28 CME

[kansasaurorachaser]

This was taken 10 miles west of Emporia, KS at the Lyon/Chase KS county line, just north of US 50 like 500 feet.   Have a time lapse of this.  It lasted about 20 minutes from 7:30 to 7:50pm Central before the Bz went north and stayed north the rest of the night.  iPhone 13 base with a tripod.

Edited December 2, 2023 by kansasaurorachaser

[NEAurora]

1 hour ago, Jeff Mitchell said:

NEAurora:

Very nice summary graphic. Data-rich.

Thanks, I was hoping that by arranging the data in this way you’d be able to see the clear time progression of the CME as it impacted the EPAM, STEREO, L1, etc in succession, but it didn’t turn out quite as clean as I hoped, still neat though!  I guess STEREO is pretty close to Earth, so might not be too different from L1, lol.

[kansasaurorachaser]

 

Edited December 2, 2023 by kansasaurorachaser
youtube ruined quality.

[cgrant26]

Someone should commission a study on the correlation between CME hype and forecast shortfalls. 🤡 😄

Edited December 2, 2023 by cgrant26

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, cgrant26 said:

Someone should commission a study on the correlation between CME hype and forecast shortfalls. 🤡 😄

Could actually be interesting to do a study like that within the realm of psychology or cognitive science in general; it wouldn't surprise me if it found forecasts to be worse whenever there's a lot of hype, since that could tend to make people more prone to wishful thinking.

[cheebee]

On 12/2/2023 at 11:21 PM, Philalethes said:

Could actually be interesting to do a study like that within the realm of psychology or cognitive science in general; it wouldn't surprise me if it found forecasts to be worse whenever there's a lot of hype, since that could tend to make people more prone to wishful thinking.

😄 maybe its all a bit quantum , like the double slit experiment, but when we look at it it gets shy

[cgrant26]

Schrodinger's aurora. If its cloudy, are they there?

(I think most of us would say definitely yes)

[Chris_Wicklund]

On 12/2/2023 at 5:21 PM, Philalethes said:

Could actually be interesting to do a study like that within the realm of psychology or cognitive science in general; it wouldn't surprise me if it found forecasts to be worse whenever there's a lot of hype, since that could tend to make people more prone to wishful thinking.

I’ve done my senior thesis on space weather forecasting and metrics involving false alarming and hits.

My project was done with SWPC using their analysis over the last 11 years starting at 2011.

They false alarm the bigger events (KP4-9) 50% of the time in the first 24 hours and up to 70% 72 hours out. The media hype can easily attribute into this since it’s so easy to hype it with these statistics.

[bugz000]

seems its coming up again, but it's cloudy where i am! the bad cloud luck finally caught up with me! 😄 

Edited December 5, 2023 by bugz000