Adrian Kobyłecki Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 (edited) Forecast update Edited December 1, 2023 by Adrian Kobyłecki 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 This is easily the CME from the 28th with around 60 hours of travel time having max velocities at around 575km/s max. So now the EPAM looks to show we have a flux rope to come. ................. Also, fun fact. Though this CME is about 3 times slower, it is visually similar in coronagraph imagery to the 2 2003 Halloween CMEs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Also, fun fact. Though this CME is about 3 times slower, it is visually similar in coronagraph imagery to the 2 2003 Halloween CMEs. why? do you mean only visually or are you implying similar effects to expect? 1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said: I think he doesn't have that much desity why he didn't eat the other cme, but this is the cme of 28 The speed is fine, if 3 more hours of forecast arrives it makes sense I think this might be the 28th one as @mozy and @Philalethes suggested. im looking at StereoA data and it seems like its hit with a slightly different portion of the CME and might not qualify for forecasting this titme. Impact at Stereo started at 10:18 UTC, while impact at L1 started at 9:27UTC. It has been in the negative BZ region for the past 2 hour while we experience northward BZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: why? do you mean only visually or are you implying similar effects to expect? At least only visually from SOHO's coronagraph imagery. I believe two factors are that it was an eruptive event and we took an almost perfect direct hit. At SA, the CME only arrived ~30 minutes earlier than it took to arrive at L1 which is interesting. ............... The flux rope could kick in at any hour now to around the very early morning on the 2nd UTC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 (edited) 18 minuten geleden, Jesterface23 zei: At least only visually from SOHO's coronagraph imagery. I believe two factors are that it was an eruptive event and we took an almost perfect direct hit. At SA, the CME only arrived ~30 minutes earlier than it took to arrive at L1 which is interesting. ............... The flux rope could kick in at any hour now to around the very early morning on the 2nd UTC. How can you tell about de flux rope. I never found a nice translation for the word flux rope, so I still can't imaginaire what it exactly means ☺️ Edited December 1, 2023 by Malisha Reuvekamp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: How can you tell about de flux rope. I never found a nice translation for the word flux rope, so I still can't imaginaire what it exactly means ☺️ ACE's EPAMp is still hasn't dropped, so we know something is still coming. At this point that can only be the flux rope. It is currently understood as pretty much a large magnetic loop that passes through. The IMF parameters will rotate as it goes through and hopefully the Bz is negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tniickck Posted December 1, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 1, 2023 Tver region, 57 northern latitude. it was cloudy as hell, but there was some aurora for a very short time when some gaps in the clouds arrived 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 I sure wish we had more probes around the Sun in order to have more accurate solar wind prediction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 or even one or two out at a perpendicular angle 12 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said: I sure wish we had more probes around the Sun in order to have more accurate solar wind prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 A fleet of probes, maybe 10 of them, orbiting the Sun at 0.5 AU should do it I just don't want to be missing these because of inaccurate arrival times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 46 minutes ago, cheebee said: or even one or two out at a perpendicular angle Vigil is planned for orbit at L5, but it's definitely going to be a while before launch. Hopefully in time for the SC26 maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Are we finally entering the negative part of the flux rope? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, mozy said: Are we finally entering the negative part of the flux rope? Do you think the flux rope has arrived? someone suggested that the epam is still rising a few hours ago, i forgot who exactly.. meaning it maybe has not arrived yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Do you think the flux rope has arrived? someone suggested that the epam is still rising a few hours ago, i forgot who exactly.. meaning it maybe has not arrived yet. EPAM started going down already few hours ago, but dipping faster now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheebee Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 2 hours ago, tniickck said: Tver region, 57 northern latitude. it was cloudy as hell, but there was some aurora for a very short time when some gaps in the clouds arrived would it be ok to post this in my discord please? its a lovely example of how even a cloudy sky doesnt dismiss hope. hey thats a metaphor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, mozy said: EPAM started going down already few hours ago, but dipping faster now A good sign with the temperature dropping as well. Just waiting for the EPAMp to drop significantly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 31 minutes ago, cheebee said: would it be ok to post this in my discord please? its a lovely example of how even a cloudy sky doesnt dismiss hope. hey thats a metaphor! of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, Malisha Reuvekamp said: How can you tell about de flux rope. I never found a nice translation for the word flux rope, so I still can't imaginaire what it exactly means ☺️ To supplement Jesterface's very good description, here's a simplified graphic: The area shaded in blue is the flux rope. Edited December 1, 2023 by cgrant26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malisha Reuvekamp Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 We do look to be in the flux rope with how low the temperature is now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Menno van der Haven Posted December 1, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted December 1, 2023 We finally had cloudless weather in many places in the Netherlands, so right after work I headed to the Dutch coast to intercept possible auroras. I didn't have to wait long. This photo is from 17:51 UTC (18:51 local time). The aurora was fairly active for about half an hour. The temperature was just below zero and I was very cold from watching and photographing. The aurora disappeared, clouds arrived, so I called it a day...... 12 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: We do look to be in the flux rope with how low the temperature is now cool! here is a guess which type of fluxrope it may be! does that mean it stays negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Yeah, I concur, definitely looks like we're in the flux rope now, since around 20:00. 30 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: here is a guess which type of fluxrope it may be! Looks like that to me too (WSE), and by the lack of any significant Bx I'm guessing we're hitting the middle of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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