David Silver Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Just got an ‘aurora watch’ alert from my Weather app for the first time ever. East coast USA. G3 tonight could make it happen…But can I stay up til 1am? G1 begins at 7pm EST according to NOAA. I know only a few are interested in chronobiology, but I must say “Wow. The tinnitus began at 8am today and has slowly increased all day to 10 out of 10 now.” It is an absolutely shrieking loud, but very pure sine wave. It has only been this loud a handful of times in my life. I think we are in a for a doozy of an aurora tonight, if Bz stays Southward. Good luck viewing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RajSim Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Back in Feb 2023, looking at the sunspots made a bet and travelled to Yellowknife, Canada and was treated to a fantastic display on 4 of the 5 nights I spent there. Betting on the rapid growth of the cluster, have travelled to Iceland. First night here - whole of Iceland forecasted to be under cloud over and was bummed. Was praying for the CME to arrive post midnight UTC. Expecting clear sky from 2am UTC. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Im still wondering if this is the Halo CME. i doubt it. but it would also mean they did not merge. meaning halo CME should be slower than they thought? Tamatha Skov's podcast mentioned that these CMEs are more likely to bounce off of each other like bumper cars than merge. Edited November 30, 2023 by cgrant26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, cgrant26 said: Tamatha Skov's podcast mentioned that these CMEs are more likely to bounce off of each other like bumper cars than merge. love tamitha. have not watched it yet. what does it change impact wise? because something was observed at SolO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
helios Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Well.. something's on our way: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, helios said: Well.. something's on our way: ACE is coming back from it's time off causing the jaggedness, but it's still going up little by little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: ACE is coming back from it's time off causing the jaggedness, but it's still going up little by little love to see epam rising, thought it would be higher though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 Actually, we do have a CME shock arrival at L1 ..... So far this looks to be the arrival of the filament late on the 27th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Actually, we do have a CME shock arrival at L1 yep. which one would that likely be? and is it on time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted November 30, 2023 Share Posted November 30, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: yep. which one would that likely be? and is it on time? Around 3 days of travel, max velocities of ~475km/s should be expected which would be the filament. If the flare CME were to arrive now, velocities of ~625km/s max would be expected at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 I think with we're seeing the first filament arrival at L1 right now. My guess is mid-day tomorrow for the big flare CME but hope it hits tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Update solarham :" It is still too early to tell if this is from one of the earlier eruptions on November 27th, or a combination including the Earth directed M9.8 CME on Nov 28th. Stay tuned for more information. " So is the First filament late? 6 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: I think with we're seeing the first filament arrival at L1 right now. My guess is mid-day tomorrow for the big flare CME but hope it hits tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 I think this CME arrival is still gonna produce some geomagnetic storming soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auclectic Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 I mean, the 3 CME from 11/27 were long forecast to be decent events, up to kp6 at least before the 11/28 event increased those forecasts. This timing is pretty on point for those. There was the chance that the m9 flare from 11/28 would combine all of them and become a g3+ event, but that was I think mostly relying on the radio transmission disruption speed of 860 km/s from 11/28. There was a pretty large lapse in data immediately after peak, which is giving a big question mark as far as I can tell. I'm sad because I work tomorrow night and it'll be cloudy but might still be decent tonight 🤷♀️ https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/CMEscoreboard/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 @Jesterface23 Solarham thinks it might be the full halo. heres the arrival data, may be interesting for you! btw a question, wouldnt that make the full halo CME very slow? (maybe they slowed each other if its really the combined effects?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: @Jesterface23 Solarham thinks it might be the full halo. heres the arrival data, may be interesting for you! btw a question, wouldnt that make the full halo CME very slow? (maybe they slowed each other if its really the combined effects?) Heh, I think it's still coming and the flare CME arrival during the sheath we are in might put on a show. Unfortunately for being an almost X-Class flare CME, it is relatively slow on its own and we will have an almost perfect direct impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 53 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Heh, I think it's still coming well epam seems to still be rising, so could be! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: well epam seems to still be rising, so could be! Yes, the come on November 28 is still coming, but it seems that the cme of the filament arrived before being eaten by "cannibal cme" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Just now, Isatsuki San said: Yes, the come on November 28 is still coming, but it seems that the cme of the filament arrived before being eaten by "cannibal cme" yeah i dont know if that weakens the halo cme 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulo Scaldaferri Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 kp peaked to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 So the initial fluctuations in the Bz seem to have disappeared for a more consistently south orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 1 minute ago, LunarLights58 said: So the initial fluctuations in the Bz seem to have disappeared for a more consistently south orientation. thats a bit early to say after only 30 mins but lets hope so. happy hunting everyone and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Landon Moeller Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 Protons have nearly *tripled* in value over the past 3 hours at both L1 and STEREO. The next one is in transit and should arrive by 09-12 UTC imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LunarLights58 Posted December 1, 2023 Author Share Posted December 1, 2023 There is now some more negative Bz but the density has dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted December 1, 2023 Share Posted December 1, 2023 wtf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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