Impact from Nov 28 CME

[LunarLights58]

I wanted to start a topic about the big full halo CME from AR 3500's M9.8 flare on 11/28 in advance of its forecasted arrival at our planet later today.

[hamateur 1953]

Sounds good to me.  Let’s all hope that it’s a good one.  Sure has been a lot of discussion about it.  Would be nice to see some more good pictures indeed! 

[Ester89]

Impatiently waiting from Hamburg (Germany) 🤞🏼

[Vancanneyt Sander]

For everyone’s interest, the shock already passed the solar orbiter satellite:

Good news: southward Bz, but strength is not that high (Bt 15-20nT)

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

For everyone’s interest, the shock already passed the solar orbiter satellite:

Good news: southward Bz, but strength is not that high (Bt 15-20nT)

But is this the big Halo CME or the remaining 2 ahead of it? Noaa said they could possible cannibalize so either we're seeing the full whatever-is-coming-at-us or those are the 2 trailing before the CME, right?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

2 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

But is this the big Halo CME or the remaining 2 ahead of it? Noaa said they could possible cannibalize so either we're seeing the full whatever-is-coming-at-us or those are the 2 trailing before the CME, right?

Normally these are the two preceding ones (because of the pretty low Bt), so that also means no big merge of the CMEs likely also meaning later arrival than some predictions. So likely more in line with SIDC prediction that estimated an arrival tomorrow around 12UTC. 

lets just wait and see  but an early impact of the M9 seems unlikely.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Normally these are the two preceding ones (because of the pretty low Bt), so that also means no big merge of the CMEs likely also meaning later arrival than some predictions. So likely more in line with SIDC prediction that estimated an arrival tomorrow around 12UTC. 

lets just wait and see  but an early impact of the M9 seems unlikely.

Alrighty.

 

Which of the above graphs would reflect the -bz arriving at earth? i know it weakens on its way from solO to earth, i just wanna have a guess because its kinda hard to read/interpret. the 2nd bt?

[arjemma]

59 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Alrighty.

 

Which of the above graphs would reflect the -bz arriving at earth? i know it weakens on its way from solO to earth, i just wanna have a guess because its kinda hard to read/interpret. the 2nd bt?

Good question, many times science is using the X Y X order so maybe that's the same here? In that case z is the third one. I'm not sure though. Hard to see.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Good question, many times science is using the X Y X order so maybe that's the same here? In that case z is the third one. I'm not sure though. Hard to see.

its kinda hard and unprecise to read too.. looks like -15 to -18? 

[tmfunk]

According to the report the Impact should be tomorrow afternoon. Hoping the best tonsee this spectacle from germany

 

[arjemma]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

its kinda hard and unprecise to read too.. looks like -15 to -18? 

Yea I agree. Looks like -15 to about -18 like you said. I'm trying to find the source of the data but can't find it. I have looked through STIX.

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Yea I agree. Looks like -15 to about -18 like you said. I'm trying to find the source of the data but can't find it. I have looked through STIX.

maybe only data they can access. im following their twitter

4 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Yea I agree. Looks like -15 to about -18 like you said. I'm trying to find the source of the data but can't find it. I have looked through STIX.

 

@Vancanneyt Sander

 

im just confused at this point. some people say not to rely on solO, some do. conflicting info. my head hurts  

[auclectic]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

maybe only data they can access. im following their twitter

 

@Vancanneyt Sander

 

im just confused at this point. some people say not to rely on solO, some do. conflicting info. my head hurts  

Depends on where it is in its orbit

[arjemma]

@MinYoongi Here is from STIX which is a data center for Solar Orbiter. I don't know if the line is where we have been or where we are going though.

Edited November 30, 2023 by arjemma

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, arjemma said:

@MinYoongi Here is from STIX which is a data center for Solar Orbiter. I don't know if the line is where we have been or where we are going though.

its not loading for me..   but still thank you. youre a real one!  

i mean, @arjemma , it was able to pick up the first CME that impacted us (i think, posted about it above)

[arjemma]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

its not loading for me..   but still thank you. youre a real one!  

Meh, stupid thing. Does this link work for you? https://gyazo.com/58e8c0bb13660e132983a521557b5ec4
You are the real one for showing me gyazo back in the days haha

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, arjemma said:

Meh, stupid thing. Does this link work for you? https://gyazo.com/58e8c0bb13660e132983a521557b5ec4
You are the real one for showing me gyazo back in the days haha

works like a charme! yeah, i think solO is in a good position, dunno why that guy posted this.  "Multidisciplinary scientist at UNAM : CFD, astrophysics, complexity science. Hobbies: spaceflight, programming, weather, aviation, Linux & FOSS, sci-fi."  so dunno if he has credit to his name?

[cgrant26]

24 minutes ago, arjemma said:

@MinYoongi Here is from STIX which is a data center for Solar Orbiter. I don't know if the line is where we have been or where we are going though.

Solar system planetary orbits run counter clockwise so the line would represent the path traveled. (unless for some strange reason their POV is from the -Z (southern) axis of the sun)

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur terug, MinYoongi zei:

some people say not to rely on solO, some do

True if solar orbiter isn’t near Earth. Currently it’s at 0,24AU from Earth so it’s “close” to us and is “near” the Sun-Earth line so it does tell us something. 

[Jesterface23]

If the CME detected by Solar Orbiter is the M9.8 CME, it should arrive at L1 any hour, or it might have been the prior filament eruption. Br and Bx would be fairly similar. The orientation of the satellite would be needed to turn Bt to By and Bn to Bz.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

If the CME detected by Solar Orbiter is the M9.8 CME, it should arrive at L1 any hour, or it might have been the prior filament eruption. Br and Bx would be fairly similar. The orientation of the satellite would be needed to turn Bt to By and Bn to Bz.

Im still wondering if this is the Halo CME. i doubt it. but it would also mean they did not merge. meaning halo CME should be slower than they thought?

[arjemma]

50 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

Solar system planetary orbits run counter clockwise so the line would represent the path traveled. (unless for some strange reason their POV is from the -Z (southern) axis of the sun)

Very true, didn't even think of that. Thank you!!

[tniickck]

if it misses, i will quit the space weather community. look. i am making a bet with the sun itself 

[LunarLights58]

How much longer, if there is a slower CME, until its arrival time at Earth? I was hoping it would arrive by tonight, about 06:00 UTC while there are still clear skies here and create a strong aurora.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, LunarLights58 said:

How much longer, if there is a slower CME, until its arrival time at Earth? I was hoping it would arrive by tonight, about 06:00 UTC while there are still clear skies here and create a strong aurora.

still 8 hours to go until 6UTC