AR 3354

[mozy]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Have you seen long/strong flares without cmes? 

Many times

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Have you seen long/strong flares without cmes? 

Go look at AR 2192 from 2014, that one made me mad 😅

[SpaceWeather5464]

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

Many times

Go look at AR 2192 from 2014, that one made me mad 😅

Looks like there is a CME but it's not fast 😭

[tniickck]

it just erupted with X flare, hope it will be geoeffecient

12 minutes ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Looks like there is a CME but it's not fast 😭

i guess there certainly is

[Philalethes]

16 minutes ago, tniickck said:

hope it will be geoeffecient

doubt.jpg

16 minutes ago, tniickck said:

i guess there certainly is

I'm not so sure about that; I don't really see any sign of any as of yet, at least. I guess the coronagrams will show us eventually.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[mozy]

Just now, Philalethes said:

doubt.jpg

I'm not so sure about that; I don't really see any sign of any as of yet, at least. I guess the coronograms will show us eventually.

Yeah I'm confident there's nothing

[MinYoongi]

Any updates in regards to a (or none)  CME?

[tniickck]

coronographs say there is no CME

[Aten]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Go look at AR 2192 from 2014, that one made me mad 😅

Yup, 2192 had a flare with x-ray flux above X levels for 75 minutes, but no cme.

Long duration X flares with no cme are pretty rare though.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Aten

[Jesterface23]

'Bout time lol. The region is still within range if it can pull off a decent CME, but time is running out.

[CapeCodShade]

I’m just happy we got something to look at. Some fireworks at least. This spot has underperformed for a few days now.

[SpaceWeather5464]

4 hours ago, Aten said:

Yup, 2192 had a flare with x-ray flux above X levels for 75 minutes, but no cme.

Long duration X flares with no cme are pretty rare though.

2192 was the worst sunspot in history, It flared a bunch of long duration X class flares and yet none of them even produced a CME.

[cgrant26]

Looking at the SDO movie of the event in 304 red wavelength, it looks like a filament stretching from the limb to this spot dumped a bunch of materiel into it right before the X flare kicked off. Is that something that often triggers a flare in a region like this? The flare itself looked like it sent a loop of material up but it all came back down. No field lines appeared to detach.

[Philalethes]

5 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

Looking at the SDO movie of the event in 304 red wavelength, it looks like a filament stretching from the limb to this spot dumped a bunch of materiel into it right before the X flare kicked off. Is that something that often triggers a flare in a region like this? The flare itself looked like it sent a loop of material up but it all came back down. No field lines appeared to detach.

I see the filament, but I'm not entirely sure if there is a connection; could be, though. As for whether such events can or do trigger others, there's a fair amount of literature on sympathetic flares and eruptions, and I've seen others mention it as well as what looks like it myself, but I believe it's still an active area of investigation in Solar physics to what extent it happens and how it happens. It's been studied for a few decades at least.

A quick search yielded some papers to look at if interested. For example, this paper investigates the characteristics of sympathetic flares. This one purports a clear case of a causal link between two sympathetic filament eruptions. This one looks at a sympathetic filament eruption that was involved in the strongest geomagnetic storm of SC24.

Definitely interesting and something to consider when you see what looks to be sympathetic activity.

Edited July 3, 2023 by Philalethes
typo

[Newbie]

3 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

Looking at the SDO movie of the event in 304 red wavelength, it looks like a filament stretching from the limb to this spot dumped a bunch of materiel into it right before the X flare kicked off. Is that something that often triggers a flare in a region like this? The flare itself looked like it sent a loop of material up but it all came back down. No field lines appeared to detach.

What you describe is certainly quite feasible.

I was looking into why some active regions containing complex sunspots fail to live up to expectations and why other unspectacular regions produce multiple flares.

Under performing sunspots.    
Complex sunspots are large and intricate regions of intense magnetic activity on the Sun's surface and are more likely to produce solar flares compared to smaller and simpler sunspots although there are exceptions to this.

Solar flares are powerful eruptions of electromagnetic energy from the Sun's surface that release a tremendous amount of energy. They occur when the magnetic field lines in the sunspot region become highly twisted and stressed.

However, the production of solar flares depends on several factors, and the presence of a complex sunspot alone does not guarantee the occurrence of a flare. Here are a few reasons why complex sunspots may not always produce solar flares:

Magnetic Field Configuration: The configuration of the magnetic field within the complex sunspot plays a crucial role in determining whether a solar flare will occur. If the magnetic field lines are relatively stable and not highly twisted, the energy release may be less intense, resulting in a smaller or no solar flare.

Magnetic Neutralisation: In some cases, the magnetic fields within a complex sunspot can cancel each other out, a process known as magnetic neutralisation. When this happens, the magnetic energy that would have been available for a solar flare is dissipated, reducing the chances of a significant flare.

Stability of Magnetic Field: The stability of the magnetic field in the sunspot region also influences the occurrence of solar flares. If the magnetic field is relatively stable and does not experience sudden changes or disruptions, the energy buildup required for a flare may not reach the critical threshold.

External Factors: The interaction between the sunspot region and the surrounding solar environment can also affect the likelihood of solar flares. For example, the presence of nearby magnetic fields or the influence of solar plasma flows can modify the conditions necessary for a flare to occur.

It's important to note that while complex sunspots are generally associated with a higher likelihood of producing solar flares, there are many complex factors at play, and predicting the exact behavior of the Sun's magnetic activity remains a complex and ongoing area of scientific research.

Over performing sunspots.       Sunspots are often associated with solar flares, including X-class flares, which are the most powerful and energetic flares.

While it is true that complex sunspots, which are larger and have more intricate magnetic structures, are more likely to produce X-class flares, it is also possible for non-complex sunspots to generate such flares. Here are a few reasons why this can happen:

Magnetic Shearing: Sunspots can experience magnetic shearing, which occurs when the magnetic field lines in the sunspot become twisted and distorted. This can lead to the sudden release of a large amount of stored magnetic energy, resulting in an X-class flare.

Magnetic Reconnection: In the vicinity of a sunspot, magnetic field lines can interact and reconnect. This process can release a significant amount of energy and trigger a solar flare. Even in non-complex sunspots, magnetic reconnection can occur and produce an X-class flare.

Emerging Flux: Sometimes, new magnetic flux emerges near an existing sunspot. This additional magnetic field can interact with the preexisting magnetic field, causing instability and leading to a powerful flare.

Flare Triggering by Filaments or Prominences: Filaments and prominences are large, cooler plasma structures suspended in the Sun's atmosphere. If a filament or prominence destabilizes near a sunspot, it can trigger a flare, including an X-class flare.

It's important to note that sunspot complexity is still a significant factor in determining the likelihood of X-class flares. Complex sunspots generally have more complex magnetic configurations and a greater potential for energy release. However, non-complex sunspots can still exhibit the necessary conditions for powerful flares under certain circumstances.

Why a CME is not always produced at the time of solar flare.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are powerful eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun's corona. While CMEs are often associated with solar flares, they do not always occur simultaneously. Here are a few reasons why a CME may not always be produced with a solar flare:

Different mechanisms: Solar flares and CMEs are related phenomena but have distinct underlying mechanisms. Solar flares are intense bursts of electromagnetic radiation that occur when magnetic energy is rapidly released in the solar atmosphere. On the other hand, CMEs involve the expulsion of massive amounts of plasma and magnetic fields into space. Although they can occur together, they can also occur independently of each other.

Magnetic configuration: The occurrence of a CME depends on the structure and configuration of the Sun's magnetic field. For a CME to be generated, the magnetic field lines must become twisted and stressed, eventually reaching a point where they lose stability and erupt. In some cases, the conditions for a CME may not be met even if a solar flare occurs.

Directionality: Solar flares and CMEs may be associated with different regions on the Sun. Solar flares typically originate from localized regions of intense magnetic activity known as active regions or sunspots. However, CMEs can occur from various locations on the Sun's surface, including regions far away from active regions. Therefore, while a solar flare might occur in one area, it does not guarantee that a CME will be produced.

Energy release: Solar flares release a tremendous amount of energy in the form of electromagnetic radiation, primarily X-rays and ultraviolet light. CMEs, on the other hand, involve the expulsion of mass and magnetic fields. It is possible for a solar flare to release most of its energy in the form of radiation, without triggering a significant CME.

In summary, while solar flares and CMEs are often related, they are not always produced simultaneously due to differences in their underlying mechanisms, the configuration of the Sun's magnetic field, and the location of the associated activity on the Sun's surface.

N.

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Newbie said:

Different mechanisms: Solar flares and CMEs are related phenomena but have distinct underlying mechanisms.

Thanks for a helpful description. I would just like to question your assertion that CMEs and Flares are produced by different underlying mechanisms. Perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying, and if so I apologise, but this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-difference-between-flares-and-cmes suggests that 

"Both eruptions are created when the motion of the sun’s interior contorts its own magnetic fields."

i.e. same cause, different manifestation.

[Newbie]

6 hours ago, 3gMike said:

Thanks for a helpful description. I would just like to question your assertion that CMEs and Flares are produced by different underlying mechanisms. Perhaps I am misunderstanding what you are saying, and if so I apologise, but this NASA article https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-difference-between-flares-and-cmes suggests that 

"Both eruptions are created when the motion of the sun’s interior contorts its own magnetic fields."

i.e. same cause, different manifestation.

Thanks for the question @3gMike
 I do not disagree all events that occur on the Sun are driven by the motion of the Sun’s interior and the impact on it’s magnetic fields. 
While both CMEs and solar flares involve the Sun's magnetic field and magnetic reconnection, CMEs are characterized by the ejection of massive amounts of plasma and magnetic fields into space, while solar flares release a sudden burst of electromagnetic radiation. It is this underlying difference I was referring to.

The underlying mechanism behind solar flares is related to the Sun's magnetic field and magnetic reconnection. In regions of intense magnetic activity, such as sunspots, the magnetic field can become highly concentrated and twisted. When the magnetic field lines suddenly reconfigure and reconnect, a solar flare occurs.

Coronal Mass Ejections are massive eruptions of plasma and magnetic fields from the Sun's corona into space. They involve the ejection of billions of tons of magnetiised particles, such as electrons, protons, and heavier ions, at high speeds. CMEs are typically associated with intense solar activity, such as sunspots and active regions.

The underlying mechanism behind CMEs is closely related to the Sun's magnetic field but what triggers the production of a CME is not yet fully understood. When magnetic field lines become twisted or distorted, they can store large amounts of energy. Eventually, these stressed magnetic field lines can suddenly release their stored energy, causing a CME.

N.

[Jesterface23]

Taking a look back at imagery during the X-Class flare, a weak CME did launch. For whatever reason it wasn't eruptive at all, but there may be part of a possible reason. If you look closely at the flare, it is double peaked. The CME in solar imagery was released during the second peak. It is pretty much theory crafting after that though.

[Sam Warfel]

Interesting. Still the sun mystifies us 😂 (or at least, me)

[3gMike]

10 hours ago, Newbie said:

what triggers the production of a CME is not yet fully understood.

That may be true, and the same applies to flares. We do not know exactly what triggers the fields to release their stored energy. But essentially production of a CME comes down to the amount of stored energy in the twisted fields. So you are much less likely to see a CME from a location producing a C flare than from one producing an X flare, since the energy required to produce a C1 flare is 100 times less than that producing an X1 flare. Of course, duration of the flare must also be taken into account.

[hamateur 1953]

only to add an amen to your comment Sam!!  Ok ‘54, this may be your last shot at it. It is independence day for us in these United States of America.  A nice x flare w/ cme would be very much appreciated by all.  Thanks!  

Edited July 4, 2023 by hamateur 1953
amendment

[Newbie]

4 hours ago, 3gMike said:

That may be true, and the same applies to flares. We do not know exactly what triggers the fields to release their stored energy. But essentially production of a CME comes down to the amount of stored energy in the twisted fields. So you are much less likely to see a CME from a location producing a C flare than from one producing an X flare, since the energy required to produce a C1 flare is 100 times less than that producing an X1 flare. Of course, duration of the flare must also be taken into account.

@3gMike

Certainly what you have written holds true.

You might find these articles interesting. Both refer to the same research I believe.

https://www.livescience.com/space/the-sun/solar-flares-created-in-the-lab-for-1st-time

https://www.sciencealert.com/physicists-have-successfully-generated-tiny-solar-flares-in-the-lab

N.

[3gMike]

55 minutes ago, Newbie said:

@3gMike

Certainly what you have written holds true.

You might find these articles interesting. Both refer to the same research I believe.

https://www.livescience.com/space/the-sun/solar-flares-created-in-the-lab-for-1st-time

https://www.sciencealert.com/physicists-have-successfully-generated-tiny-solar-flares-in-the-lab

N.

Thanks - very interesting.

[SpaceWeather5464]

It's been making non stop M and C class flares today, Looks like it's getting ready for something.

[CapeCodShade]

A C8 and an M1.4. While those aren’t impressive… (I know there were a few other C flares too.) …what is impressive (to me at least) is that this spot, despite the flares today (and in days prior), has not seemed to put out any CME’s worth noting…at least at the time of me writing this. I’m impressed by how horrible this sunspot is.

[Jesterface23]

2 hours ago, CapeCodShade said:

has not seemed to put out any CME’s worth noting…

3354. Go to the far side and don't come back until you think about what you have done.