42 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Mainly watching the red 47-68keV line and it is dropping slightly.

There still may be another day of activity when the flux rope arrives. The signs of the arrival will be the temperature and density drop. The only reliable satellite right now is SOHO though, then maybe using ACE's glitchy data to help confirm when it happens.

Dscovr and ace data when it comes to BZ is solid. The speed etc could be funky 

-33 nT now, damn lol

4 minutes ago, mozy said:

-33 nT now, damn lol

That’s a first for me. Someone claimed the flux rope arrived on twitter, I think it’s @Landon Moeller  what do you say @Jesterface23

Lets find out, this might be the flux rope

5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Lets find out, this might be the flux rope

How can we know? I tried finding stuff about flux ropes but it’s very complicated. You said something about density and Temperature ? What else?

Yeah, the EPAM just fell off a cliff

Edited April 24, 20232 yr by Jesterface23

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Lets find out, this might be the flux rope

The EPAM did noticeably drop it seems.

Possible to reach G5 with these conditions?

2 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

The EPAM did noticeably drop it seems.

Ok and how long does a flux rope last? I don’t know the speeds rn 

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

How can we know? I tried finding stuff about flux ropes but it’s very complicated. You said something about density and Temperature ? What else?

The IMF parameters not being as jagged and the parameters should rotate over time.

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

The IMF parameters not being as jagged and the parameters should rotate over time.

Rotate to what 

2 minutes ago, mozy said:

Possible to reach G5 with these conditions?

I don't think so. The G5 limit is about 1.5x G4.

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Rotate to what 

The Bx, By, and Bz components will all gradually change over its duration rather than random quick changes.

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I don't think so. The G5 limit is about 1.5x G4.

The Bx, By, and Bz components will all gradually change over its duration rather than random quick changes.

That makes sense. Do you think this is a long flux rope? 

Also is the flux rope the core of the CME? Is it the same ? I see people talking about the core and a flux rope and wonder if it’s the same 

lookin good.  hopefully Cat p has her cameras out tonight!!   she did and just posted an awesome shot checkitout kids if ya wish!  

Edited April 24, 20232 yr by hamateur 1953
update

Just now, MinYoongi said:

That makes sense. Do you think this is a long flux rope? 

It is possibly it will go into the 25th. There was a weaker looking CH, so it may just degrade and transition into that at some point before then.

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

It is possibly it will go into the 25th. There was a weaker looking CH, so it may just degrade and transition into that at some point before then.

But I mean the strongest part of the CME, does it Level off over time or not 

Oh and thanks for the info about th ch, gotta be honest as the solar cycle progresses I don’t pay attention to them anymore 

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

But I mean the strongest part of the CME, does it Level off over time or not 

The flux rope Bt can do just about anything. A gradual decline, level then a gradual decline, or a gradual rise and fall.

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

The flux rope Bt can do just about anything. A gradual decline, level then a gradual decline, or a gradual rise and fall.

Okay, I’m getting more and more confused 😂 sometimes cmes sweep through in no time especially faster ones, so I thought this may be one of them but it’s more of a direct hit so more plasma thus taking longer?

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Okay, I’m getting more and more confused 😂 sometimes cmes sweep through in no time especially faster ones, so I thought this may be one of them but it’s more of a direct hit so more plasma thus taking longer?

Overall, yes a longer lasting CME

Is the speed of 500 accurate? To me that makes no sense, it was a CME with a short passing time shouldn’t it be faster 

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Okay, I’m getting more and more confused 😂 sometimes cmes sweep through in no time especially faster ones, so I thought this may be one of them but it’s more of a direct hit so more plasma thus taking longer?

It can vary quite a bit, depending on how it hits. Try thinking of it more or less like a cylindrical tube coming at us; if the middle of the tube hits us, then the entire diameter of the tube will move across us, but if only the edge of the tube hits us, then only a small part of that interior will hit us (instead of the diameter, it will be a chord in geometrical terms). On top of that there's also a lot of variation in how wide the tube is when it hits us and how fast it's moving; as per this paper, the radial dimension of the interior of the tube can vary from 0.1 to 0.5 au (and I'm not sure if that is considering the fact that the tube in reality isn't straight, but bent), and the speed of it is 300 to 1000 km/s (most of the time, I assume).

This is needless to say simplifying it a lot, but maybe that helps.

Does anyone know of a relatively mid-latitude location with an active webcam? I can't seem to find one

12 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

It can vary quite a bit, depending on how it hits. Try thinking of it more or less like a cylindrical tube coming at us; if the middle of the tube hits us, then the entire diameter of the tube will move across us, but if only the edge of the tube hits us, then only a small part of that interior will hit us (instead of the diameter, it will be a chord in geometrical terms). On top of that there's also a lot of variation in how wide the tube is when it hits us and how fast it's moving; as per this paper, the radial dimension of the interior of the tube can vary from 0.1 to 0.5 au (and I'm not sure if that is considering the fact that the tube in reality isn't straight, but bent), and the speed of it is 300 to 1000 km/s (most of the time, I assume).

This is needless to say simplifying it a lot, but maybe that helps.

Ty

 ?

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

 ?

Given they asked if we are in the flux rope a few minutes prior, should be enough info to figure the rest out

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

Given they asked if we are in the flux rope a few minutes prior, should be enough info to figure the rest out

Haha I was just about to comment that 😅