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Unspecified geomagnetic activity


Isatsuki San
Message added by Sam Warfel,

Use this thread to discuss any minor questions or unspecified geomagnetic activity. 

For discussion of expected inbound CMEs, or noticeable geomagnetic storms, please create new threads (“X2 CME prediction”, “G3 storming”)

Thank you!

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31 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

There isn't a chance for Kp9, it's not one of those events.

....

The CME has arrived at L1

sure? someone on twitter claiming it 

22 minutes ago, mozy said:

Pretty decent impact

yeah its cool, you clear tonight´?

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1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

 

but this dude is often rather over-the-top with his forecasts, not meant rude ofc. 

mmm I think you are wrong, he is not affirming that there could be kp9, he says that there could be kp8 severe storm is kp8,

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

but this dude is often rather over-the-top with his forecasts, not meant rude ofc. 

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/es/ayuda/el-indice-kp.html

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26 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

The velocities will go up further, maybe with another velocity shock or rise within the next few hours.

CME 2: Electric Boogaloo. Looking forward to it.

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but this dude is often rather over-the-top with his forecasts, not meant rude ofc. 

The problem with people who keep making such forecasts is that they don't keep any track of all the times they've been wrong; whenever they do get a prediction right, even if just by chance, they'll parade it around. Often they'll also twist it to say that they were right even when they were clearly wrong. If this doesn't end up a G5, who will be there to remind them of it next time they make an extreme prediction? Probably no one, and not many are that interested in keeping track of other people's wrong predictions either; better to just pay less attention to them in my experience.

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16 minutes ago, mozy said:

You already know the answer lol

We've had sunny weather for a whole week, now today is the start of a rainy week :D

Same; full week of some nice April sunshine, today cloudy with some rain, tomorrow 20 mm of rain expected. Classic.

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31 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

does anyone know how long impact will likely last? its not as fast as i thought @Jesterface23

If there is a long lived flux rope similar to the previous surprise CME arrival, effects from the CME could last 2 days.

31 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

CME 2: Electric Boogaloo. Looking forward to it.

I think we are in both CMEs currently, we might be in a bit of a proton density buildup right now

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5 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

If there is a long lived flux rope similar to the previous surprise CME arrival, effects from the CME could last 2 days.

I think we are in both CMEs currently, we might be in a bit of a proton density buildup right now

can stereo a data be used to forecast BZ?

18 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Same; full week of some nice April sunshine, today cloudy with some rain, tomorrow 20 mm of rain expected. Classic.

classic april move.

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9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

can stereo a data be used to forecast BZ?

For consistent use, I'd say no. STEREO A is out in different conditions. There is even very slight differences between ACE and DSCOVR as they orbit around L1.

Edited by Jesterface23
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18 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

If there is a long lived flux rope similar to the previous surprise CME arrival, effects from the CME could last 2 days.

Maybe long enough to pave way for the HSS of the CH that's almost at the equator now if it persists. Could be quite a few days of geomagnetic activity.

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