Unproven theories

[hamateur 1953]

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

Currently it is like shooting fish in a barrel. We are around the highest peaks of solar activity for maybe up to another 2 years. Possibly with the highest daily sunspot number on 2024/04/22 since 2002, it would be a surprise if we didn't get M-Class flares. Obviously the new GOES satellites made it a little easier to reach M-Class.

Here here!!  Tnx @Jesterface23 I just looked at STAR and our board.   Simply amazing. @Maitreya  With our baseline average solar flux nearly at M class levels pretty soon we will be forced to visually identify which region went into x class.  All good news so far. 

Edited April 22 by hamateur 1953
Checked baseline

[Archmonoth]

8 hours ago, Maitreya said:

We are summing up the wrong result, dear friend. If you hadn't focused your critical attention on this or that sunspot (the sun, figuratively speaking, in Patrick's theory is a kind of target, at which point the targeted line will hit - it's still difficult to determine exactly), you would have seen that a strong outbreak on April 15-16 was predicted by him anyway He also predicted the next increase in activity in the period from April 21-22 correctly.

Predicting an increase requires describing how much of an increase. Vague predictions are not scientific predictions. 

 

Patrick has been claiming solar max since last year. Even a broken clock can be right twice a day.

 

8 hours ago, Maitreya said:

How many astrophysicists are able to look so far into the future?

By looking at measurements from previous solar cycles and modelling.

8 hours ago, Maitreya said:

And our task is to observe without pointing a finger at Patrick for not hitting this or that spot.

No, please speak for yourself. You do not speak for everyone.

 

Patrick has a hypothesis, but he is not interested in science. He is interested in telling people he is correct. 

 

For any unproven theory, you have to define how you can be incorrect/false, and Patrick has no metric for being incorrect, he constantly attempts to excuse any error away. (Rather than refining his idea or being humble.)

[hamateur 1953]

Well put @Archmonoth  outta likes. But you echo my sentiments 

I might only add that reading his posts is like reading a broadcast. 
Interaction is rare and dismissive on his part.  Not the actions of a genuine researcher. 

Edited April 22 by hamateur 1953

[Maitreya]

11 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

Нет, пожалуйста, говорите за себя. Вы не можете говорить за всех.

yes, my friend, you are right: from now on, I will speak only for myself and address the issue of taking Patrick's theory into account not to readers and forum participants on this site, but to qualified astrophysicists from space agencies in different countries: for example, I have already written to Russia, Israel, India and China. If one of the astrophysicists of these countries contacts Patrick and wants to join his research, it will be very good. The key to his idea is correct, but the theory itself needs additional elaboration. 

Have a nice day, dear friend.🙏

[hamateur 1953]

2 hours ago, Maitreya said:

yes, my friend, you are right: from now on, I will speak only for myself and address the issue of taking Patrick's theory into account not to readers and forum participants on this site, but to qualified astrophysicists from space agencies in different countries: for example, I have already written to Russia, Israel, India and China. If one of the astrophysicists of these countries contacts Patrick and wants to join his research, it will be very good. The key to his idea is correct, but the theory itself needs additional elaboration. 

Have a nice day, dear friend.🙏

That should be interesting.   Let us know what they think, would you please?  See ya.  Mike. Btw @Maitreya if these are serious researchers ask them to check into his history and credentials first and if they still wanna go ahead, Fine.  May I also suggest you contact Jan Alvestad via his website on Solen. Aka Solar Terrestrial Activity Report.  Jan seems to me to be an especially careful researcher.  Good Luck. 

Edited April 23 by hamateur 1953
History

[Maitreya]

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

 Кстати, @Maitreya если это серьезные исследователи, попросите их сначала проверить его историю и полномочия, и если они все еще хотят продолжать, прекрасно.

My friend, if these are serious researchers, they will do it without my request, will you agree? 🙏

See ya, my friend.

[hamateur 1953]

Hopefully, yes.  Agreed 

[helios]

On 4/22/2024 at 10:16 AM, Maitreya said:

I don't want to be impolite and argue with you, dear friends, but I also can't ignore the already obvious facts that Patrick's forecasts hit the "spot."

Patrick is making countless predictions since years. Most of them turn out to be wrong and he never mentions them again. Some of them become true.

It's like reading a Horoscope. If you make enough generic predictions, some of them will eventually be true. That has nothing to do with scientific process.

[Maitreya]

2 hours ago, helios said:

Patrick is making countless predictions since years. Most of them turn out to be wrong and he never mentions them again. Some of them become true.

It's like reading a Horoscope. If you make enough generic predictions, some of them will eventually be true. That has nothing to do with scientific process.

My dear friend, once again I disagree with you. Look: did Patrick predict strong outbreaks on April 15-16? They have been accomplished. Did Patrick predict severe outbreaks for the period from April 22 to April 29? They began and continue to this day and will end on April 29th. Shall we see? Then it will be repeated on May 6-8. Shall we check it out? Then there will be a lull on June 11-12. Shall we watch? If we have so many coincidences, then to say that his hypothesis (theory) does not work, dear friend, is to deny the reality. I suggest observing: observing and matching the reality of Patrick's predictions will be the best confirmation of the validity of his theory. I will be watching, it is interesting to me, more interesting than watching every sunspot. I am not an astronomer, not an astrophysicist, I am an economist and solar activity is interesting to me only from the point of view of its critical impact on our vital activity, on the infrastructure of our economy, the opportunity to predict something very critically powerful that can destroy our electric economy, damage the operation of nuclear power plants, destroy communications, the Internet.  In 2025, a new planetary year will begin on Neptune. If you compare the events of Carrington, you will also see that it happened exactly at the beginning of the new Neptune cycle. Is this astrology? Really? This is pure astronomy. It's just that if we can't connect something yet in terms of the current capabilities of science, then this does not mean at all that it cannot be in reality. This critical moment - the beginning of a new cycle - a new circle in orbit around the Sun for Neptune - worries me very much in terms of the possibility of a super-mega-flare on the Sun.If my forecast comes true, would you agree that it would be foolish to deny the direct influence of the planets of the solar system on the activity of the Sun? But in any case, only observations will show the right of this hypothesis or theory to exist.

 Have a nice day, dear friend. 🙏
 

[3gMike]

28 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

 In 2025, a new planetary year will begin on Neptune. If you compare the events of Carrington, you will also see that it happened exactly at the beginning of the new Neptune cycle. Is this astrology?

In a word Yes!! Stick with me and I will explain.

We know that the Carrington event happened on 1st September 1859

Astronomy tells us that Neptune orbits the Sun once every 60,190 days, or 164.79 years

Add 164,79 years to September 1859 and you get June 2024

On the other hand Astrology tells us that ...

The next Saturn–Neptune conjunction will occur at the 0° Aries point, the first degree of the zodiac, itself marking the birth of a new era. The conjunction will be near exact in July 2025, and will perfect at 0° Aries on February 20, 2026.

[Maitreya]

26 minutes ago, 3gMike said:

Одним словом, да!! Оставайтесь со мной, и я объясню.

Мы знаем, что событие Кэррингтона произошло 1 сентября 1859 года

Астрономия говорит нам, что Нептун обращается вокруг Солнца один раз в 60 190 дней, или 164,79 года

Добавьте 164,79 года к сентябрю 1859 года, и вы получите июнь 2024 года

С другой стороны , астрология говорит нам об этом ...

Следующее соединение Сатурна и Нептуна произойдет в точке 0 ° Овна, первом градусе зодиака, что само по себе знаменует начало новой эры. Соединение будет почти точным в июле 2025 года и совершенным при 0 ° Овна 20 февраля 2026 года.

Dear friend, what's wrong with the fact that astrology will help us to find the key to understanding the nature of the Sun's activity? I repeat: in any case, only observation can confirm or refute a hypothesis. I'm done here, my friend, because I don't need another warning from the moderator.

Have a nice day, my friend.

[hamateur 1953]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEh2vNBcJa0

 Hey @Maitreya  No hard feelings. Here is a somewhat dated piece with cool riffs ya can dance to!  Adios. Mike/Hagrid 

[Maitreya]

15 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YEh2vNBcJa0

Привет @Maitreya Без обид. Вот несколько устаревшая композиция с крутыми риффами, под которые можно потанцевать! Прощайте. Майк / Хагрид

 

• I would also like to answer you, my friend, with something sarcastic... But I guess I'll digest my sarcasm inside myself. Good luck and good health to you and your loved ones, my friend.

   

   
•  

[StargazingHippy]

On 4/17/2024 at 8:27 AM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

AR 3639 should be the predicted complex sunspot

The next 4 days should show it…

I hope I am wrong…
(PDF) Fast Growing and Complex Sunspot


https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379244771_Fast_Growing_and_Complex_Sunspot

Hi @Patrick P.A. Geryl  I'm wondering a few things....

*What did you hope you were wrong about?

*What did the 4 days show you?

*Is there an update on the complex spot you predicted to be born on the 21st?

*What do you mean by "dangerous sections of their path"

Edited April 23 by StargazingHippy

[hamateur 1953]

My attached file wasn’t directed at you @Maitreya  I have embarrassed myself publicly many times before and the ability to laugh at oneself even in retrospect is what makes us human. And hopefully keeps us from making the same mistakes over again. Embarrassing situations sting a bit. Sometimes a lot.  Hopefully you have a sense of humour too.   Gets off soapbox 

Edited April 23 by hamateur 1953
Afterthoughts

[Archmonoth]

I have an unproven Theory for the thread, in the hopes of looking for an error, or refinement of ideas. I will try and illustrate the conditions, the problem, and a plausible/testable solution. 

 

First off, I am not a scientist, I am an enthusiast. 

 

The conditions: Current cosmological models of universe are insufficient. Yet with the launch and information gathered by the James Webb Telescope we have a deeper view of the universe. Recently a combination of models has been used to get closer to our models reflecting reality without Dark Matter or Dark Energy. 

Recent attempts: pdf (iop.org) "Testing CCC+TL Cosmology with Observed Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Features"  

 

This modeling includes multiple ideas, including a fringe idea called Tired Light: Tired light - Wikipedia

 

My hypothesis for these conditions: Light does not dim, but becomes entangled with other light along the way, this is why images are clear, rather than fuzzy at great distances. Through light entanglement over great distances, information is shared between photons. 

 

The problem:  How to measure if light has been entangled with other light before reaching the telescope. This is complicated by Dark Matter/Energy. Resolving this issue would provide a reduction to uncertainty. 

 

Possible resolution of the Problem: Handedness (Chirality) lets light become entangled more easily. We know the galaxy and other structures will take on a shared spin, or a shared direction. Here is a recent study describing this as a possible resolution of Dark matter: [2402.19459] Anomalous contribution to galactic rotation curves due to stochastic spacetime (arxiv.org) 

 

My summary from the article: Non-handed particles provide resistance/friction which we previously interpreted as Dark energy/matter. If anyone has a different take on this, I would love to hear it. 

 

Testable Solution:  Entangle light, and then introduce new information, and see if other entangled photons will share the information. (The function would be similar to a signal booster/repeater) 

 

(The following is speculation based on what I think the combination of CCC+TL models show)

Continued cosmological speculation: 

1. Light and Electrons are Quantum structures. (Quantum Mechanics)

2. All structures are built on emergent properties of interactions/relationships. (Systems Theory)

3. There are limits to every pattern or force, since they are emergent properties. (Example: The weak nuclear force and gravity do not reach the quantum world)

4. All differences between boundaries carry entropy, or friction as described in the article attempting to resolve dark matter/energy. 

 

This tells me the laws of physics are built on each other in a sequence, based on which one emerged first, second, third etc. Here is my guess on which order the forces and properties of the universe emerged. 

 

1. Quanta world, quarks, electrons, no spacetime yet.

 

2. Interactions resulted in the emergent property of light. This is also the creation of time, since all energy is conserved in time. (Example: Electron changes emit light)

 

3. With time, comes regions, areas, density, and finally; clusters. Clusters result in mass, neutrons, and protons. This is the emergence of space, since all momentum is conserved in space; mass, clusters and such would emerge. (Example: Protons and Neutrons are clusters of quarks.)

 

4. Now, with space and time, light and mass, the big bang could emerge, creating the conditions for the weak and strong nuclear force, with atomic structures and neutrinos emerging. The weak nuclear force is responsible for beta decay, which is a type of conservation for atomic covalent bonds. 

 

5. The expansion of space, is due to the order applied through handedness or chirality. When a vacuum is polarized, there is an even distribution of quarks with polarized charges. This polarization is caused by magnetic fields in magnetars or from the gravity/magnetism of stars. Vacuum polarization - Wikipedia 

 

6. Further polarization can occur in gluon-quark plasma, which polarizes quarks and light even more. So, the guess here is that when the universe is all going the same direction from handedness, the conditions for the big bang would return. 

 

7. In non-handed regions of space, quarks take a more stochastic course, resulting in uneven expansion of space. (Perhaps visible in previous cosmological history. This would be seen as the universe having more Dark matter/energy due to more friction.)

 

8. The expansion of space in high chirality conditions could result in photon disintegration, much like the life cycle of super giants. To many photons prevents atomic structures. (Universal extinction from light.) Photodisintegration - Wikipedia

 

Summary: Emergent properties result from interactions, creating an additive approach to the formation of natural phenomena. All new properties are built on previous conditions. There is no upper limit to the emergence of new properties.

 

Secondary Prediction: Dark Matter/Energy is apparent phenomena of non-handed quark soup. As the universe/galaxy moves in the same direction, the clearer light/information will become, due to increased light entanglement. Also, the further light travels, the more information it can share with other photons, even at low flux. 

 

Edited April 24 by Archmonoth

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

Op 23/4/2024 om 15:37, StargazingHippy zei:

Hi @Patrick P.A. Geryl  I'm wondering a few things....

*What did you hope you were wrong about?

*What did the 4 days show you?

*Is there an update on the complex spot you predicted to be born on the 21st?

*What do you mean by "dangerous sections of their path"

*What did you hope you were wrong about?

If it hadn't split, it could have released an X flare. Our magnetic field is so weak that even a small X flare could have unexpected effects....

*What did the 4 days show you?

I stil don't understand why sunspot formation wasn't completed. The components were split in several other sunspots... Therefore we got a lot of sunspots without much complexity...

*Is there an update on the complex spot you predicted to be born on the 21st?

If you have read my paper... It was expected very early on the 21st around 01:45. You can find on my Researchgate page that they usely appear a few hours earlier... Especially with a high 10.7 solar flux... So late on the 20th... Does that fit?☺️

So... That should be AR 3654... X flaring should be for behind the limb, Could be earlier, because it grows fast as predicted...  See https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379244771_Fast_Growing_and_Complex_Sunspot

*What do you mean by "dangerous sections of their path"

X flaring off course.

I guess that if it is proven correct... The Sound Of Silence...

 

 

Edited Sunday at 10:02 AM by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

12 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Our magnetic field is so weak that even a small X flare could have unexpected effects....

Solar flares don't produce geomagnetic storms.

13 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

*Is there an update on the complex spot you predicted to be born on the 21st?

If you have read my paper... It was expected very early on the 21st around 01:45. You can find on my Researchgate page that they usely appear a few hours earlier... Especially with a high 10.7 solar flux... So late on the 20th... Does that fit?☺️

So... That should be AR 3654... X flaring should be for behind the limb, Could be earlier, because it grows fast as predicted...  See https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379244771_Fast_Growing_and_Complex_Sunspot

I don't fully understand this part. The large sunspot cluster started rotating to our side of the disk around the 12th end rotated out of view around the 26th, which largely helped with the 10.7 solar flux.

Region 3654 looks to have started forming at some point on the far side, on the 19th or earlier. More faster developing spots later developed early on the 22nd, early on the 24th, late on the 26th, and now early on the 28th.

[Philalethes]

13 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

magnetic field is so weak

You make it sound like it's any noticeably weaker now than it has been for the past years. Elaborate on what you mean by this.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

6 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

Solar flares don't produce geomagnetic storms.

I don't fully understand this part. The large sunspot cluster started rotating to our side of the disk around the 12th end rotated out of view around the 26th, which largely helped with the 10.7 solar flux.

Region 3654 looks to have started forming at some point on the far side, on the 19th or earlier. More faster developing spots later developed early on the 22nd, early on the 24th, late on the 26th, and now early on the 28th.

Region 3654 looks to have started forming at some point on the far side, on the 19th or earlier. More faster developing spots later developed early on the 22nd, early on the 24th, late on the 26th, and now early on the 28th.

13654

2024.04.20 2024.04.21

From Solen☺️

5 uren geleden, Philalethes zei:

You make it sound like it's any noticeably weaker now than it has been for the past years. Elaborate on what you mean by this.

You will see in a direct hit from a CME with a Bz <-50. No further comment.

Edited Monday at 12:29 AM by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Jesterface23]

7 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Region 3654 looks to have started forming at some point on the far side, on the 19th or earlier. More faster developing spots later developed early on the 22nd, early on the 24th, late on the 26th, and now early on the 28th.

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

13654

2024.04.20 2024.04.21

From Solen☺️

It did begin formation on the far side, there is no way around that. The problem is on solar synoptic maps is that 80E to 90E is about 0.01Rsun. So, if you want to take a good look at the limb, you will need to use something like JHelioviewer.

Region 3654 moved from 90E to ~84E in 24 hours, late on the 19th to late on the 20th.

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

You will see in a direct hit from a CME with a Bz <-50. No further comment.

Maybe stick to solar forecasting for now rather than geomagnetic forecasting. At least until you learn more about geomagnetic activity.

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

2 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

It did begin formation on the far side, there is no way around that. The problem is on solar synoptic maps is that 80E to 90E is about 0.01Rsun. So, if you want to take a good look at the limb, you will need to use something like JHelioviewer.

Region 3654 moved from 90E to ~84E in 24 hours, late on the 19th to late on the 20th.

Maybe stick to solar forecasting for now rather than geomagnetic forecasting. At least until you learn more about geomagnetic activity.

It did begin formation on the far side, there is no way around that. The problem is on solar synoptic maps is that 80E to 90E is about 0.01Rsun. So, if you want to take a good look at the limb, you will need to use something like JHelioviewer.

Region 3654 moved from 90E to ~84E in 24 hours, late on the 19th to late on the 20th.

=> Ok. I checked and you are right. However, I have an explanation for this. I remember something similar.

This Triple

April 18 (06:15) – 27 (03:00), 2024 Triple Line Up Pallas – Mercury – Uranus

is connected with:

April 21 (01:45) – 22 (11:30), 2024: Opposition Mercury - Uranus and the Sun

April 21 (06:45) – 22 (12:30), 2024: Conjunction Mercury – Pallas and the Sun

So the activation was earlier.

Today 2 Triples end... So less activity... But the end of a Triple could temporarily induce a small burst of activity...

April 29

April 10 (06:30) – 30 (12:30), 2024: Opposition Pallas - Uranus and the Sun

April 12 (20:45) – 29 (05:00), 2024 Triple Line Up Uranus – Jupiter – Earth

April 16 (12:30) – May 3 (20:45), 2024 Triple Line Up Saturn – Mercury – Juno

April 21 (03:15) – 29 (02:00), 2024 Triple Line Up Neptune – Venus – Juno

April 22 (21:00) – May 1 (15:30), 2024 Triple Line Up Pluto – Mars – Venus

April 23 (23:30) – May 11 (00:30), 2024: Opposition Pluto - Vesta and the Sun

April 26 (16:00) – May 1 (17:00), 2024 Triple Line Up Neptune – Mars – Earth

April 27 (09:45) – May 30 (02:15), 2024: Opposition Pallas - Jupiter and the Sun

Edited Monday at 03:57 AM by Patrick P.A. Geryl

[Philalethes]

6 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

You will see in a direct hit from a CME with a Bz <-50. No further comment.

So you make a claim about the strength of the geomagnetic field, and then you don't even pretend like you have any facts to back that claim up? Yeah, sounds about right for your "science".

[AScaredObserver]

What is this theory about Neptune's revolution being a factor into the Carrington Event's happening... and the fact it's gonna reoccur in June of this year?

[Jesterface23]

11 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

Region 3654 moved from 90E to ~84E in 24 hours, late on the 19th to late on the 20th.

I do need to correct this part, 90E to ~74E*

9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

=> Ok. I checked and you are right. However, I have an explanation for this. I remember something similar.

We still wouldn't know when Region 3654 formed. All we know is that it had already existed when it came over the limb.