Unproven theories

[hamateur 1953]

On 3/30/2024 at 10:34 PM, Blueboyy88 said:

Man, I was super excited to try and see what I could gain from this discussion. Lol, then I saw the rules🙄. The things I want to discuss aren't those topics directly but at some point along the line they do intersect, so far as I can tell from the research I've done. I will do my best to tip toe around those subjects, but I just want to say, those are the exact things everyone should be discussing given the scenario we find ourselves in. The sun may start having a much more significant impact on humanity because of those very things. I wouldnt mind discussing it with anyone who may be interested via some other channel. Ok, so assuming I'm not banned yet. To start, I'm only just beginning to watch, research, and theorize about the sun and solar activity. I've no degrees or education of any kind in anything besides manual labor, lol. But I have a curious mind and I get bored a lot, so i think about stuff. I've been kinda working on a theory and it's most definitely flawed given my limited understanding of the subject matter, but I do try every day to learn more and slowly develop this theory of mine. So, I'm not really sure how to go about this. I'm just a regular guy with little education past high school, so please try to bear with me and dumb any responses down for me as best you can. Let's start, so about 2 years ago I kinda fell into the idea that solar weather can and does have an impact on financial markets and cryptocurrencies as well. The main thing I was observing was the sun and it's effect on the price of Bitcoin. The idea was simple, we pretty much know that subatomic particles can and do have noticable effects on computers and their ability to accurately perform their job. Random Access Memory is actually designed with a certain degree of "error correcting" properties that are pretty much required to ensure an acceptable level of day to day operation. In places where the integrity of data is more important than just some guy playing "Call of Duty" (Servers and Server Farms) are equiped with even more robust memory. (ECC). So, to my understanding the most common problem is random flipped bits in memory caused by stray particles thrown from wherever but a lot do come from the sun. This is where Bitcoin comes in, a decentralized global network of computers running an algorithm to check, verify, and secure the BlockChain. So, basically my theory started like this, hypothetically, let's say the sun threw an above average strength earth facing solar flare(just below any radio blackouts) one could "in general" assume that more subatomic particles would be hitting earth than usual. Given that the Bitcoin network is global, one could assume enough these particle COULD cause extra strain on the network through 100s or 1000s of computers having to deal with more "randomly flipped bits" than normal and thus more "error correcting" operations being required from memory chips in the computers to ensure continued operation. So, I wonder am I understanding how all this works right? If a strong enough storm could make computers crash, you could assume a weaker storm might result in a general slowdown for a network running across the globe. The effects to most may go unnoticed or simply missed and explained away by something else. I want to know, if this effect is possible? And if it is could it be measured through something like the BTC network? Because from my understanding, "Mining Difficulty" is something that does play a roll in the price, some how. I'm looking for any insights from people smarter than me to help me develop or just give up on this theory. I know I probably got some things wrong which is why I tried to go with the most generalized ideas about how this might be possible. Does this sound like something that is feasible? Am I misunderstanding some things? Any and all criticism or information is appreciated. Thanks for anyone who took the time to read or respond. God Bless. P.S. the whole reasoning behind my curiosity? Well if any significant correlation between solar activity and the Bitcoin network could nailed down, a person might have a decent "heads-up" for significant swings in the price of Bitcoin and therefore maybe a heads up for buying and selling opportunities. I've been watching for 2 years and it's seems that on more than a handful of occasions big breakouts, whether up or down, in the price of BTC have conincided with increased solar activity. It's most likely "confirmation bias" on my end, but I don't know. What do you think?

My cat Hagrid evidently has great powers of prediction.  Particularly with bitcoin @libmar96 Noted this in our Spaceweather memes area.  Good luck dude!  Mike. 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355037930_Electromagnetic_Waves_and_Solar_Killshots   Really Patrick??!  Solar killshots?  I liked this site specifically because it refrained from the suggestive and inflammatory hype so prevalent among others. Dangerous sunspots??   @Philalethes issued you a challenge more or less @Patrick P.A. Geryl to go ahead and predict….    Mike   I guess in today’s atmosphere of “advocacy journalism “ this is to be expected.   

Edited April 2 by hamateur 1953

[Philalethes]

On 3/31/2024 at 7:34 AM, Blueboyy88 said:

Does this sound like something that is feasible? Am I misunderstanding some things?

It's not entirely unreasonable, but a couple of things should definitely be clarified.

The first is that such an effect would arise from Solar particle events, which flares and geomagnetic activity wouldn't themselves necessarily imply, but they are often associated, with intense eruptive flares in particular tending to be accompanied by particle events. However, it would take something really explosive to increase the flux of such particles at ground level, which is known as ground level enhancement (GLE), and is relatively rare; non-GLE events might even lead to a decrease in interference on computers due to temporarily sweeping away cosmic rays (known as a Forbush decrease, as provided a bit of information about by Newbie here), which can have the same effect.

The second is that even if such an effect did have any measurable impact on higher-level features like price in this case, that impact could turn out to be very weak and highly marginal, and it could even be hard to extract and distinguish it from noise at all. As such, even if there were indeed such an effect, it could be completely dominated by other factors to the point where not knowing anything other than whether or not a GLE is occurring or about to occur would hardly leave you better off than flipping a coin.

But it is an interesting question, at least if extended more broadly to the potential effects of GLEs on electronic infrastructure. See e.g. papers like this, which concludes:

Quote

We take an initial look at hard single-event effects (SEEs) in power electronics and static random access memories (SRAMs) during space weather-induced extreme ground-level enhancement (GLE) events. We show that there is a significant risk of failure of silicon power metal-oxide- semiconductor field-effect transistors (MOSFETs) and insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) at ground level during a 10× February '56 GLE. If the devices are not derated, then we find that 21% of power MOSFETs and 14% of IGBTs are, in the worst case, predicted to fail. The probability of failure increases to 68% and 52% during a once-in-a-10000-year GLE for power MOSFETs and IGBTs, respectively. Silicon carbide devices show a lower failure rate by more than an order of magnitude, where only 2.8% are predicted to fail during a once-in-a-10000-year GLE. It is clear that these events could disrupt critical infrastructure if mitigating precautions are not implemented.

Note however how this is considering truly extreme events, and that it's very speculative in nature. As you surmise it could of course still mean that less extreme events might still cause a measurable load on electronic infrastructure, but as mentioned above that could potentially be a very weak effect in the case of most GLEs you might encounter in your lifetime (note how GLEs are quite rare in general, let alone the extreme ones). It could also be that there's a certain threshold for how strong such events must be before any significant effects are noticed at all (funnily enough just like the voltage control of MOSFET transistors themselves).

Personally I strongly doubt you're going to find a useful signal there, but if you have time to spare you could always look at some data analysis and/or statistics courses online and see if you can apply some simple methods to extract a potential weak correlation, you'll find a lot of free material out there these days.

Edited April 2 by Philalethes
typo

[Maitreya]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Что ж, это может быть проблемой. Все еще находится на экспертной оценке. Выше я не могу позволить себе открытый доступ… Поэтому точный метод… , к сожалению, останется после платного доступа.…

And yet, dear friends, I recommend taking a closer look at Jupiter and its period of rotation around the sun. It is he who determines the behavior of the sun in solar cycles, their beginning and end. He is the main helmsman in the solar system. 

[Parabolic]

17 hours ago, Maitreya said:

And yet, dear friends, I recommend taking a closer look at Jupiter and its period of rotation around the sun. It is he who determines the behavior of the sun in solar cycles, their beginning and end. He is the main helmsman in the solar system. 

The planets and their alignments/gravitational pull have no effect on the cycle of the sun. This was discussed thoroughly near the beginning of this topic if you're interested.

[hamateur 1953]

Agreed.  it is fun and interesting to speculate because that is what we do, but staying within known science is helpful to others and less confusing to the general public. 

1 hour ago, Parabolic said:

The planets and their alignments/gravitational pull have no effect on the cycle of the sun. This was discussed thoroughly near the beginning of this topic if you're interested.

 

Edited April 3 by hamateur 1953
Reconsidered

[Archmonoth]

20 hours ago, Maitreya said:

And yet, dear friends, I recommend taking a closer look at Jupiter and its period of rotation around the sun. It is he who determines the behavior of the sun in solar cycles, their beginning and end. He is the main helmsman in the solar system. 

This is untrue, but this is a good idea to explore how the solar system works. Jupiter is interesting and has unusual features, and even has some patterns which seem reflective of the Sun's behavior.

 

 

Edited April 3 by Archmonoth

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

4 uren geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Agreed.  it is fun and interesting to speculate because that is what we do, but staying within known science is helpful to others and less confusing to the general public. 

 

The “known science” knows almost nothing, while my theory - not even advanced - can already calculate a lot!

if I beat all astronomers, professors, mathematicians, etcetera… with my prediction of cycle 25…. Than who should you look at?

place your bets…

[Maitreya]

7 hours ago, Parabolic said:

Планеты и их расположение / гравитационное притяжение не влияют на цикл обращения Солнца. Это подробно обсуждалось в начале этой темы, если вам интересно.

My dear friend, Have you heard about Barycenter of solar system? And after that you continue to assert:"The planets and their alignments/gravitational pull have no effect on the cycle of the sun. "? Don't make Zeus (Jupiter) laugh, my friend. 😊

34 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

5 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

Это неправда, но это хорошая идея для изучения того, как устроена Солнечная система. Юпитер интересен и обладает необычными свойствами, и даже есть некоторые закономерности, которые кажутся отражающими поведение Солнца.

 

Are you sure, my friend? Compare the frequency of the 12-year Chinese calendar and the periods of the solar cycle - They repeat each other. The Chinese calendar is associated with the passage of Jupiter in orbit around the sun. We have become more stupid than the philosophers and astronomers of antiquity, my friends? The mouse years: 1996,2008,2020 - the beginning of the 23.24.25 solar cycle. Jupiter is a marker of the beginning and end of solar cycles as the most massive planet, The time deviations are due to the influence of the orbital cycles of other planets, mainly the trans-Saturn group: Saturn, Neptune, Pluto, Uranus and of course Chiron. Or will we continue to guess at the coffee grounds, forgetting about the interdependence of all the "characters" of the solar system, my friends?

 

 

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

“Известная наука” почти ничего не знает, в то время как моя теория - даже не продвинутая - уже может многое вычислить!

если я превзойду всех астрономов, профессоров, математиков и так далее… своим предсказанием 25 цикла .... Тогда на кого вам следует обратить внимание?

делайте свои ставки…

My friend, i think you're more than right.Go this way, but don't forget about Jupiter.

Edited April 3 by Maitreya

[hamateur 1953]

I will stay with historical cycles, history and cyclic evolution.  Las Vegas and Monte Carlo and built with the dollars of those who roll dice, leave me out all due respect.  Almost as if on cue 131 looking bright again on incoming limb.  Excellent.  😇  I also note that these theories are back in their proper area, not scattered among other topics presently under discussion by others in this forum.  
Mike 

Edited April 3 by hamateur 1953
Checked 131 ang. And another happy observation

[Philalethes]

On 4/2/2024 at 10:03 AM, Maitreya said:

And yet, dear friends, I recommend taking a closer look at Jupiter and its period of rotation around the sun. It is he who determines the behavior of the sun in solar cycles, their beginning and end. He is the main helmsman in the solar system. 

8 hours ago, Parabolic said:

The planets and their alignments/gravitational pull have no effect on the cycle of the sun. This was discussed thoroughly near the beginning of this topic if you're interested.

6 hours ago, Archmonoth said:

This is untrue, but this is a good idea to explore how the solar system works. Jupiter is interesting and has unusual features, and even has some patterns which seem reflective of the Sun's behavior.

We still don't really know. The curious coincidence of the length of the Solar cycle being relatively close to the orbital period of Jupiter has been remarked upon for over 150 years, and as I've mentioned in some posts before (like this) even the esteemed Wolf (after which the Wolf number, the sunspot number we still use today, is named) thought there had to be a connection there.

But of course we observe that the cycle isn't quite the same length (Wolf and others would chalk this up to the difference being caused by the movements of the other planets), and there's still no good model which shows any connection clearly, so at the time being I would simply say that there's a lack of evidence for it, but I wouldn't make any positive claim about there definitely not being any connection.

Like Archmonoth I think the most impelling area of investigation in this regard would be the Solar barycentric cycle ("Jose cycle") and its potential effects on Solar activity, and Jupiter naturally plays the largest role in producing torque there (with Saturn also playing a prominent role), but as with other such theories it's far from being clear; if it were we wouldn't be discussing it here, heh.

I would definitely like to see it investigated more, and it would be very cool if someone could somehow establish a clear link between the two that would allow for accurate long-term predictions, but as Huxley reminded us the great tragedy of science is the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact, so I wouldn't get my hopes up too much at this point.

[Maitreya]

38 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Я останусь с историческими циклами, историей и циклической эволюцией. Лас-Вегас и Монте-Карло, построенные на доллары тех, кто бросает кости, не вызывают ко мне должного уважения. Почти как по сигналу 131 снова выглядит ярко на приближающейся конечности. Отлично. 😇 Я также отмечаю, что эти теории вернулись на свое место, а не разбросаны по другим темам, обсуждаемым в настоящее время другими участниками этого форума.
Майк

What say you, my lovely friend; are not you tired of your constancy? (this is a joke). Constancy is a good quality, my friend.🙏

1 minute ago, Philalethes said:

Мы до сих пор точно не знаем. Любопытное совпадение продолжительности Солнечного цикла, относительно близкого к периоду обращения Юпитера, отмечалось более 150 лет назад, и, как я упоминал в некоторых постах ранее (например, в этом), даже уважаемый Вольф (в честь которого названо число Вольфа, число солнечных пятен, которое мы все еще используем сегодня) подумал, что здесь должна быть связь.

Но, конечно, мы замечаем, что цикл не совсем одинаковой длины (Вольф и другие списали бы это на разницу, вызванную движением других планет), и до сих пор нет хорошей модели, которая четко показывала бы какую-либо связь, поэтому на данный момент я бы просто сказал, что для этого не хватает доказательств, но я бы не стал утверждать с уверенностью, что здесь определенно нет никакой связи.

Как и Archmonoth, я думаю, что наиболее стимулирующей областью исследований в этом отношении был бы Солнечный барицентрический цикл ("цикл Хосе") и его потенциальное влияние на солнечную активность, и Юпитер, естественно, играет там наибольшую роль в создании вращающего момента (Сатурн также играет заметную роль), но, как и в случае с другими подобными теориями, это далеко не ясно; если бы это было так, мы бы не обсуждали это здесь, хех.

Я определенно хотел бы, чтобы это исследовалось больше, и было бы очень здорово, если бы кто-нибудь смог каким-то образом установить четкую связь между ними, которая позволила бы делать точные долгосрочные прогнозы, но, как напомнил нам Хаксли, великая трагедия науки - это уничтожение красивой гипотезы уродливым фактом, поэтому я бы не стал слишком сильно надеяться на данный момент.

Your words are a balm for my soul, thank you, my friend.🙏

[Jesterface23]

9 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

And I stand by my earlier one that this will be a short cycle.

By short, what are we talking here? Something like 8 years rather than the typical 11 year cycle?

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, Jesterface23 zei:

By short, what are we talking here? Something like 8 years rather than the typical 11 year cycle?

The calculations are more complicated for the downslope... Because it has to be done with the high resolution sunspots Still working on a date that is right by plus minus a few months.

At the moment I have 2027, but that can change...

[olive1989]

Considering the latest earthquakes in Venezuela ( march 28th of a 4.9 magnitude) Peru and Brasil (march 27 of 5.1 magnitude) and now Taiwan of 7.4  does anyone has any further insight of possible correlation with the latest geomagnetic storm of march 25th? Just odd coincidence? 

 

[Misaka]

19 minutes ago, olive1989 said:

Considering the latest earthquakes in Venezuela ( march 28th of a 4.9 magnitude) Peru and Brasil (march 27 of 5.1 magnitude) and now Taiwan of 7.4  does anyone has any further insight of possible correlation with the latest geomagnetic storm of march 25th? Just odd coincidence?

It has no correlation.

[Philalethes]

4 hours ago, olive1989 said:

Considering the latest earthquakes in Venezuela ( march 28th of a 4.9 magnitude) Peru and Brasil (march 27 of 5.1 magnitude) and now Taiwan of 7.4  does anyone has any further insight of possible correlation with the latest geomagnetic storm of march 25th? Just odd coincidence?

Those first ones are virtually impossible to use for anything, since roughly 3-7 quakes of Mw 5+ happen worldwide every day.

As for the Taiwan quake and afterquakes, it's not really possible to use that single event to prove any correlation, but it might end up becoming evidence of a very weak possible correlation between geomagnetic activity and earthquakes when you consider many years and decades of such statistically, although such analyses are difficult to perform rigorously. Note for example the Mw 6.9 quake that occurred on Mar 23, before that geomagnetic storm; such events can and do happen in times of little to no geomagnetic activity, which is why it's hard to conclusively establish any link.

You should definitely check out the first few pages of the thread if you haven't done so already, we discussed some of the evidence for a potential link between geomagnetic and seismic activity there, but I'm still of the opinion that any such link will at best be a slight correlation if it does exist, but that that evidence does suggest that such a small correlation might indeed exist. One of the events from last year where two Mw 7+ quakes occurred on the same day as strong geomagnetic activity would be very unlikely to happen by chance statistically speaking, but as I said then such coincidences can happen, so it's still important not to jump to conclusions.

Edited April 3 by Philalethes
typo

[hamateur 1953]

6 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The calculations are more complicated for the downslope... Because it has to be done with the high resolution sunspots Still working on a date that is right by plus minus a few months.

At the moment I have 2027, but that can change...

That is even shorter than cycle 19 one of the shortest cycles on record. 10 years.  For a low moderate cycle as this one is playing out.  You should easily be able to post a rough down ramp at this point. Absent the second peak virtually everyone else expects to occur.  You definitely have my interest at this point.  That seems to be the first solid statement you have made in two years.  7 years?  8 maybe.   Error bars are used by everyone else.  Go right ahead. Mike 

[arjemma]

7 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The calculations are more complicated for the downslope... Because it has to be done with the high resolution sunspots Still working on a date that is right by plus minus a few months.

At the moment I have 2027, but that can change...

From what date/year do you start counting SC25 from then? From 2019?
How have you reached that conclusion? Do you want to share the math and the calculation for this (without linking a paper that is several pages long)? That is a very short cycle and I would love to know exactly how you got 2027 as a result.

[hamateur 1953]

10 hours ago, arjemma said:

From what date/year do you start counting SC25 from then? From 2019?
How have you reached that conclusion? Do you want to share the math and the calculation for this (without linking a paper that is several pages long)? That is a very short cycle and I would love to know exactly how you got 2027 as a result.

At this point after years of seeing Patrick dissing virtually the entire scientific community involved in solar cycle research ( except Jan Alvestad) personally, I would love to simply see him put his cards on the table, so to speak, and post his projection of SC 25 future evolution. It matters little to me by what methods he obtained these projections.  Should he turn out to actually be correct, it will likely be unprecedented as far as I can see.  
Btw @arjemmaas far as “ other math” he may use any calculator abacus or whatever means he needs to post his estimate of the future evolution of SC 25

Edited April 4 by hamateur 1953
Allowed alternate earth based methods for our Dear Patrick

[hamateur 1953]

18 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

The “known science” knows almost nothing, while my theory - not even advanced - can already calculate a lot!

if I beat all astronomers, professors, mathematicians, etcetera… with my prediction of cycle 25…. Than who should you look at?

place your bets…

Ok @Patrick P.A. Geryl  my bet is that within the next week you will not publish in this thread the entire evolution of SC25 in graphic form absent the second peak the rest of the scientific community fully expects to occur.   And as you stated above you have also limited yourself to seven or eight years.  We are all anticipating this graph.  Myself? Most certainly. 
Mike/Hagrid 

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

40 minuten geleden, hamateur 1953 zei:

Ok @Patrick P.A. Geryl  my bet is that within the next week you will not publish in this thread the entire evolution of SC25 in graphic form absent the second peak the rest of the scientific community fully expects to occur.   And as you stated above you have also limited yourself to seven or eight years.  We are all anticipating this graph.  Myself? Most certainly. 
Mike/Hagrid 

It will stay behind a paywall. Very sorry.

[hamateur 1953]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

It will stay behind a paywall. Very sorry.

Clearly you misunderstood my bet @Patrick P.A. Geryl  I’m not suggesting you divulge any of your secrets. Only that you produce a graph showing the evolution of SC25.  
Certainly, you have access to these formulas and should be able to produce at will a graph from them.  My bet is a win-win in either case.  You have plenty of time.  You needn’t divulge anything. Only your future predictions in graphic form.  Pretty simple thing to do I should imagine.  I’m sure that the world will be amazed if they actually prove out.  Clock is running, Patrick. Get cracking.  Best wishes. Mike/Hagrid   It is currently 0257 utc Thursday April 4  in the event anyone else cares 😇

Edited April 4 by hamateur 1953
Utc /date

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

1 uur terug, hamateur 1953 zei:

Clearly you misunderstood my bet @Patrick P.A. Geryl  I’m not suggesting you divulge any of your secrets. Only that you produce a graph showing the evolution of SC25.  
Certainly, you have access to these formulas and should be able to produce at will a graph from them.  My bet is a win-win in either case.  You have plenty of time.  You needn’t divulge anything. Only your future predictions in graphic form.  Pretty simple thing to do I should imagine.  I’m sure that the world will be amazed if they actually prove out.  Clock is running, Patrick. Get cracking.  Best wishes. Mike/Hagrid   It is currently 0257 utc Thursday April 4  in the event anyone else cares 😇

This platform is for info and entertainment. Astronomers don’t care what is published here. It has no value for them.

[Jesterface23]

10 minutes ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Clearly you misunderstood my bet @Patrick P.A. Geryl  I’m not suggesting you divulge any of your secrets. Only that you produce a graph showing the evolution of SC25.  
Certainly, you have access to these formulas and should be able to produce at will a graph from them.  My bet is a win-win in either case.  You have plenty of time.  You needn’t divulge anything. Only your future predictions in graphic form.  Pretty simple thing to do I should imagine.  I’m sure that the world will be amazed if they actually prove out.  Clock is running, Patrick. Get cracking.  Best wishes. Mike/Hagrid   It is currently 0257 utc Thursday April 4  in the event anyone else cares 😇

This platform is for info and entertainment. Astronomers don’t care what is published here. It has no value for them.

So you are saying you should no longer be on SWL and you should go to a forum that better fits you? Pretty much sums up what you said.

I share my research and results freely on here, though it has been a while since my last update on my research. There are still a few things I need to try and figure out.

[Maitreya]

12 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Расчеты более сложны для нисходящего склона... Потому что это должно быть сделано с солнечными пятнами высокого разрешения, все еще работающими на дату, которая верна плюс минус несколько месяцев.

На данный момент у меня 2027 год, но это может измениться...

8 years is the cycle of Venus, In Buddhism, this is Shukra and it refers to the Asuras. Asuras are those whose direction of motion is opposite to that of most planets in the solar system. We have Venus and Uranus - the Asuras of the solar system. Am I the only one who sees Venus shining too brightly in recent years? Is it possible that it is in the closest position to the Earth? Try, my friend, without discounting the dominant role of Jupiter in each solar cycle, to impose the influence of Saturn (in 2020 there was their rapprochement with Jupiter, which happens once every 20 years), and then Venus and its 8-year cycle. You have the right line of thought, I think that a little more and you will be able to make a revolution in predicting the behavior of the Sun.🙏