Unproven theories

[3gMike]

1 hour ago, AScaredObserver said:

What is this theory about Neptune's revolution being a factor into the Carrington Event's happening... and the fact it's gonna reoccur in June of this year?

There is nothing to be concerned about. It is true to say that Neptune will be at the same point in its orbit around the Sun as it was when the Carrington event occurred. Even if it did have some influence (extremely unlikely) the impact on Earth and our electronic systems of a Carrington type event would be very different from the event in 1859.

[StargazingHippy]

2 hours ago, AScaredObserver said:

What is this theory about Neptune's revolution being a factor into the Carrington Event's happening... and the fact it's gonna reoccur in June of this year?

Fear mongering clickbait

[Parabolic]

2 hours ago, AScaredObserver said:

What is this theory about Neptune's revolution being a factor into the Carrington Event's happening... and the fact it's gonna reoccur in June of this year?

Its just a observational coincidence that Neptune made it's revolution the same day the Carrington Event occured. Mike was only pointing out that Neptune's next revolution  will be completed this June. At this time, there has yet to be any acceptable proof that solar conjunctions have any influence on solar activity. Especially Sunspot formation and the likelihood of powerful solar events (That still won't disrupt civilian activities 99% of the time).

[Parabolic]

On 4/27/2024 at 10:41 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

If it hadn't split, it could have released an X flare. Our magnetic field is so weak that even a small X flare could have unexpected effects....

How are you so certain it was no longer possible for it to produce an X-flare just because of separation and decay? The probability for X-flares didn't vanish completely.

How do you know how "weak" the Earth's magnetic field is? Last time I checked it has been declining at a negligible rate. When Earth's magnetic field does flip, it will transition from a dipole to a quadrupole configuration. This will likely reduce GIC's significantly.

15 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

You will see in a direct hit from a CME with a Bz <-50. No further comment.

21 years ago (Oct. 29 specifically) we did experience multiple direct hits from CME's and reached -50bz with minimal damage to infrastructure in isolated areas.

Patrick, these statements are concerning given the impression you try to make for yourself in this environment. This is how those who are new end up misunderstanding and unintentionally spreading that misunderstanding. 

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, Parabolic said:

Patrick, these statements are concerning given the impression you try to make for yourself in this environment. This is how those who are new end up misunderstanding and unintentionally spreading that misunderstanding.

It isn't like this is new or anything. It's more of either he needs to stop, or one day he will reach the point of no return.

[Maitreya]

On 29.04.2024 at 06:55, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

 Но окончание тройки может временно вызвать небольшой всплеск активности...

29 апреля

Апрель 10 (06:30) – 30 (12:30), 2024: Противостояние Паллады - Урана и Солнца

Апрель 12 (20:45) – 29 (05:00), 2024 Тройная линия Уран – Юпитер – Земля

16 апреля (12:30) – 3 мая (20:45) 2024 года Тройной состав Сатурн – Меркурий – Юнона

Апрель 21 (03:15) – 29 (02:00), 2024 Тройной состав Нептун – Венера – Юнона

22 апреля (21:00) – 1 мая (15:30) 2024 года Тройная линия Плутон – Марс – Венера

23 апреля (23:30) – 11 мая (00:30) 2024 года: противостояние Плутона - Весты и Солнца

26 апреля (16:00) – 1 мая (17:00) 2024 года Тройная линия Нептун – Марс – Земля

27 апреля (09:45) – 30 мая (02:15) 2024 года: Противостояние Паллады - Юпитера и Солнца

Dear friend, You know, observing solar activity through the prism of your theory, I also noted that the greatest flare activity is manifested during the formation of tees and when they are undocked, the impression is that when planets, satellites form tees - this moment has the greatest "exciting" effect on the Sun, then everything is mutual their influence stabilizes, calms down and behaves like this until the moment the tee is "undocked". Didn't you think so, Patrick? And that the force of the impact of the tees depends on how many of them are simultaneously included in one period of time and on, in fact, the weight, the masses of objects representing one or another tee.

P.S. I mentioned earlier that I wrote to the space agencies of some countries asking them to pay attention to your theory, Patrick. So far,  S. A. Bogachev (Russian Academy of Sciences . RAS) has answered me.  And that's not bad, dear friend. Good luck and inspiration, my friend.

13 hours ago, StargazingHippy said:

Кликбейт, разжигающий страх

Dear friend, he who laughs last, laughs longest.For some reason, it seems to me that it will be me, because in the end I will be right with the forecast of a megaflash from January 14, 2025 to February 26, 2025 and I will be able to protect myself and my loved ones from its effects as much as possible. And to you, my dear unbelieving friends, I will tell you: the most important judge will judge us - time. Have a nice day.

[Jesterface23]

@Maitreya

Patrick can keep doing what he wishes. His research is fine, but if you truly have read everything from him, you can't argue he has said things that he should not have been saying. For one, he doesn't seem to understand much about solar storms, so it would be best if he learns more about them before trying to forecast it.

Even this, a little over a year ago during his one of multiple "Solar maximum has passed" moments.

 

On 2/14/2023 at 7:16 PM, Jesterface23 said:

On 2/14/2023 at 12:29 PM, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

isn’t Solar max the month with the highest SN?

Not at all. Solar max/maximum is the highest of the 13 month smoothed monthly total sunspot number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_cycles

If you aren't joking, just let that sink in for a bit.

[Maitreya]

22 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

@Maitreya

Патрик может продолжать делать то, что он хочет. Его исследования прекрасны, но если вы действительно прочитали у него все, вы не сможете спорить, что он сказал вещи, которые не должен был говорить. Во-первых, он, похоже, мало что понимает в солнечных бурях, поэтому было бы лучше, если бы он узнал о них побольше, прежде чем пытаться их прогнозировать.

Даже это произошло чуть больше года назад, когда прошел один из многочисленных моментов "Солнечного максимума".

 

Are you still busy washing Patrick's bones, dear friend? Then I really have nothing to argue with you about, because at a time when he is moving forward in his research (yes, by trial and error, this always happens with everyone), at this time you are floundering in the same "swamp" of uncertainty and doubt. Have a nice day, dear friend.

[Jesterface23]

4 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

Are you still busy washing Patrick's bones, dear friend? Then I really have nothing to argue with you about, because at a time when he is moving forward in his research (yes, by trial and error, this always happens with everyone), at this time you are floundering in the same "swamp" of uncertainty and doubt. Have a nice day, dear friend.

Just giving you a heads up. "Don't believe everything that you read on the internet" exists for a reason.

[Maitreya]

17 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Просто предупреждаю. "Не верьте всему, что вы читаете в Интернете" существует не просто так.

in this case, I will also say: "do not believe everything you read on the Internet," dear friend, the maximum of the 25th solar cycle has not yet been passed, it will come at the beginning of 2025. Have a nice day, dear friend.🙏😊

[Jesterface23]

5 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

in this case, I will also say: "do not believe everything you read on the Internet," dear friend, the maximum of the 25th solar cycle has not yet been passed, it will come at the beginning of 2025. Have a nice day, dear friend.🙏😊

Very well correct. Solar maximum for this cycle has not yet been confirmed. We don't exactly know what is coming, but we will need to wait 2 or 3 more years to confirm what the second peak of the cycle does.

[Maitreya]

9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Совершенно верно. Солнечный максимум для этого цикла еще не подтвержден. Мы точно не знаем, что грядет, но нам нужно будет подождать еще 2-3 года, чтобы подтвердить, что будет со вторым пиком цикла.

this is the difference between us: you will find out about it in 2-3 years, and I knew about it back in December 2019 (the beginning of the 25th solar cycle). And now I'm just verifying my theory (which is actually several thousand years old). It seems to me, my friend, that there is no need for us to enter into arguments now, you must agree? It's better to just wait for a valid confirmation. Good luck and good health to you and your loved ones, dear friend. 🙏

Edited April 30 by Maitreya

[Christopher Shriver]

On 3/23/2023 at 4:26 PM, Christopher S. said:

A common mistake I see others make in thought experiments pertaining to the solar/seismic connection is one borne of intellectual convenience, primarily. Many attempt to string it together as "there's X, and then it causes Y, which then causes Z, which then" etc. with linear logic relying on too many pseudo-scientific presumptions. This then pollutes the discussion significantly, with parties relying on more conventional debate tactics rather than pertinent facts and information. Since often the basis for input on the discussion slides towards "upholding a belief" rather than for clarity of information, we can safely say that this is not science - it's cherry-picking science to facilitate an ultimately useless and unnecessary debate.

I hope that this change cleans up other topics moving forward. I leave this here as a possible reminder to future posters. Stay curious!

Unrelated, but can I possibly have access back to my account here...? PM please.

Eh, disregard

Edited April 30 by Christopher Shriver
Occam's nutsack

[Jesterface23]

10 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

It seems to me, my friend, that there is no need for us to enter into arguments now, you must agree? It's better to just wait for a valid confirmation. Good luck and good health to you and your loved ones, dear friend. 🙏

We both just said the same thing here, so we're good. No arguments, we're just getting on the same page.

[Maitreya]

26 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Мы оба только что сказали здесь одно и то же, так что все в порядке. Никаких споров, мы просто подходим к одной теме.

Thank you, my friend, it would be more accurate to say that we are all coming together (the entire solar system) to the same thing - the middle of the 25th solar cycle. Good luck to all of us and new unprecedented experiences, because this solar cycle looks really special.🙏

Edited April 30 by Maitreya

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Maitreya said:

the maximum of the 25th solar cycle has not yet been passed, it will come at the beginning of 2025

Patrick is adamant that maximum was in June of 2023. I guess you acknowledge that Patrick has no idea what he's talking about, then.

7 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

this solar cycle looks really special

It's literally one of the most average cycles imaginable by most metrics; slightly below average, I'd say.

[Maitreya]

22 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

 Тогда, я полагаю, вы признаете, что Патрик понятия не имеет, о чем говорит.

No, my friend, I will not admit that Patrick has no idea what he is talking about. In my opinion, he is just rushing things a little, I also often notice such desires to "force" events and try to restrain myself in this. I see in Patrick's theory the sound grain of an "uncut diamond", another thing is that his idea should go through this "cutting" by trial and error, but the key idea of his hypothesis is correct - I am firmly convinced of this. If we had focused on this search for a connection between the mutual influence and interdependence of the objects of the Solar system, then, I believe, we would have made a lot of revolutionary discoveries. Currently, thanks to modern space technologies, we have sufficient accumulated statistical material for observing the Sun and planets. We will try to draw conclusions and simulate events based on these statistics, but as the preliminary forecasts of scientists for the 25th solar cycle have shown, we are mistaken in many ways.

"who paints spots on a giraffe?" , "Oh, it's me - Jupiter and company" (joke).

Have a nice day, dear friend🙏

Edited April 30 by Maitreya

[Philalethes]

15 minutes ago, Maitreya said:

the key idea of his hypothesis is correct - I am firmly convinced of this

That's the problem; you are "firmly convinced" of something for which there is virtually zero scientific evidence. That's tantamount to religious zealotry in my book. Good scientists don't have this burning need for any of their hypotheses to be correct, especially not when the evidence is so lacking.

You're also cherry-picking which parts of Patrick's theory you like and don't like based on that preconceived and unscientific notion, all while engaging in the same behavior as the worst snake oil salesmen use ("oh, a sunspot grew, and I predicted sunspots would grow at literally every part of the year, this confirms my ideas!").

I guess I've already made this clear before, but it bears repeating again: what you're engaging in here is not science, it's pseudoscience at best, and incoherent rambling at worst.

[Maitreya]

6 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

Думаю, я уже разъяснял это раньше, но стоит повторить еще раз: то, чем вы здесь занимаетесь, - это не наука, в лучшем случае это псевдонаука, а в худшем - бессвязный бред.

I will forward to you, dear friend, all the above boorish statements. And, I will ask the moderators to note that it was not me who behaved offensively, but my opponent, I just returned his own words to him. Have a nice day, dear friends.😊🙏

[Patrick P.A. Geryl]

20 uren geleden, Jesterface23 zei:

I do need to correct this part, 90E to ~74E*

We still wouldn't know when Region 3654 formed. All we know is that it had already existed when it came over the limb.

Just follow it. According to my calculations it should return. I am sure we will find activity that confirms my theory.

5 uren geleden, Maitreya zei:

Dear friend, You know, observing solar activity through the prism of your theory, I also noted that the greatest flare activity is manifested during the formation of tees and when they are undocked, the impression is that when planets, satellites form tees - this moment has the greatest "exciting" effect on the Sun, then everything is mutual their influence stabilizes, calms down and behaves like this until the moment the tee is "undocked". Didn't you think so, Patrick? And that the force of the impact of the tees depends on how many of them are simultaneously included in one period of time and on, in fact, the weight, the masses of objects representing one or another tee.

P.S. I mentioned earlier that I wrote to the space agencies of some countries asking them to pay attention to your theory, Patrick. So far,  S. A. Bogachev (Russian Academy of Sciences . RAS) has answered me.  And that's not bad, dear friend. Good luck and inspiration, my friend.

Dear friend, he who laughs last, laughs longest.For some reason, it seems to me that it will be me, because in the end I will be right with the forecast of a megaflash from January 14, 2025 to February 26, 2025 and I will be able to protect myself and my loved ones from its effects as much as possible. And to you, my dear unbelieving friends, I will tell you: the most important judge will judge us - time. Have a nice day.

You need to write again to the astronomers that they have to follow 3654

😊

[Maitreya]

1 hour ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Вам нужно снова написать астрономам, чтобы они следовали 3654

😊

I am also sure, my friend, that 3654 has great potential, and I will look forward to its return to the field of view. Thank you, my friend. I hope you're not offended, Patrick, that I'm popularizing your theory without your permission? I also see great potential in her in the future (as in spot 3654 - a joke).

Good luck with your research! 😊🙏

[Jesterface23]

3 hours ago, Patrick P.A. Geryl said:

Just follow it. According to my calculations it should return. I am sure we will find activity that confirms my theory.

It wouldn't be too surprising due to its size. The area around it has been bubbling a bit, so maybe it will come back with some friends.

[3gMike]

4 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

It wouldn't be too surprising due to its size. The area around it has been bubbling a bit, so maybe it will come back with some friends.

There is certainly some potential for growth in terms of field strength and complexity.

                                 

[StargazingHippy]

18 hours ago, Maitreya said:

Dear friend, he who laughs last, laughs longest.For some reason, it seems to me that it will be me, because in the end I will be right with the forecast of a megaflash from January 14, 2025 to February 26, 2025 and I will be able to protect myself and my loved ones from its effects as much as possible. And to you, my dear unbelieving friends, I will tell you: the most important judge will judge us - time. Have a nice day.

"Fear is the path to the Dark Side. Fear leads to anger, anger leads to hate, hate leads to suffering."

Do what you feel is best for you but please don't shove your fears down my throat, I hope you are correct and we DO get a major event our way - I'll cross my fingers for my birthday! 🎂 

Edited April 30 by StargazingHippy

[Maitreya]

4 hours ago, StargazingHippy said:

Делай то, что, по твоему мнению, лучше для тебя, но, пожалуйста, не засовывай свои страхи мне в глотку

Am I saying that I am afraid, dear friend? By no means, there is no fear in my soul, but I also know that humanity is powerless before many phenomena of the cosmic and natural order, it cannot cancel them, but it can protect itself and prepare for this. Would you agree that it is better to be mentally prepared for an event than to be subjected to panic attacks and not know what to do? That's all I'm talking about, dear friend. Have a nice day, my friend.🙏