AR13102 watch party! (Old 3088)

[MinYoongi]

46 minutes ago, Newbie said:

I know Min, it's those boys at the airforce bases who churn out the data. 😄 

N.

One more question, what region with potential did you mean? You mentioned it decayed? I didnt see anything really, thats why i wondered.

[Philalethes]

It's very hard to tell from the imagery whether the entire positive area is just an orphan penumbra, or whether some of the umbra belongs to it; given that this exact region appeared to have the two umbrae smashed together in just that fashion as it left the limb last time around, I'd be inclined to say that the latter is the case, and that it is in fact a delta.

[MinYoongi]

9 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

It's very hard to tell from the imagery whether the entire positive area is just an orphan penumbra, or whether some of the umbra belongs to it; given that this exact region appeared to have the two umbrae smashed together in just that fashion as it left the limb last time around, I'd be inclined to say that the latter is the case, and that it is in fact a delta.

What is an Orphan Penumbra? Thank you for the Gif.

[Philalethes]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

What is an Orphan Penumbra?

Significant areas of penumbra without any associated umbra. Here are some papers on it:

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0004-637X/787/1/57

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2041-8205/786/2/L22

https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/full_html/2014/04/aa22340-13/aa22340-13.html

However, as mentioned above, I don't believe that to be the case here, I think the umbra of the positive region is simply so close to that of the negative region that they appear as a single umbra, just like happens for penumbrae in general for delta spots.

[Philalethes]

Here I've tried to make it clearer by circling the relevant area of the umbra:

As you can see, the entirety of that circle is clearly umbra, but doesn't lie within the most magnetically active region of either polarity; it rather straddles the border between the two.

From what I understand, this essentially happens as a delta region reorients itself to a field configuration with less shear, i.e. as it "dies down" in general, but there could be more to it than that.

[Newbie]

 

3 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Here I've tried to make it clearer by circling the relevant area of the umbra:

As you can see, the entirety of that circle is clearly umbra, but doesn't lie within the most magnetically active region of either polarity; it rather straddles the border between the two.

From what I understand, this essentially happens as a delta region reorients itself to a field configuration with less shear, i.e. as it "dies down" in general, but there could be more to it than that.

Hello PB in my mind the potential for a magnetic delta was more likely earlier in the day. I had hoped that the area would continue to strengthen, instead it has weakened. It appears from the overlay to fulfill the criteria technically for a delta but I am still not convinced that it is. At best it is borderline IMHO. I guess it highlights how difficult it is to make a call on these particularly weak regions. 

Do you have any more thoughts?

Newbie

A promising sign this region just produced a C7.7 flare.

5 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

One more question, what region with potential did you mean? You mentioned it decayed? I didnt see anything really, thats why i wondered.

Hi Min there was a small spot above and to the left of the main group of spots, it was this area that appeared likely to develop into a delta but it has since weakened.

N.

[mozy]

49 minutes ago, Newbie said:

 

Hello PB in my mind the potential for a magnetic delta was more likely earlier in the day. I had hoped that the area would continue to strengthen, instead it has weakened. It appears from the overlay to fulfill the criteria technically for a delta but I am still not convinced that it is. At best it is borderline IMHO. I guess it highlights how difficult it is to make a call on these particularly weak regions. 

Do you have any more thoughts?

Newbie

A promising sign this region just produced a C7.7 flare.

Hi Min there was a small spot above and to the left of the main group of spots, it was this area that appeared likely to develop into a delta but it has since weakened.

N.

Personally I believe it was a delta but It's a bit questionable since it was still quite far away to be able to see it perfectly, but as you stated, it decayed & basically disappeared overnight so now it looks rather boring.

Edited September 14, 2022 by mozy

[Newbie]

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Personally I believe it was a delta but It's a bit questionable since it was still quite far away to be able to see it perfectly, but as you stated, it decayed & basically disappeared overnight so now it looks rather boring.

True Mozy, old 3088, new 3102 hasn't quite lived up to hopes, although it did just pop a C7.7 flare. But the real action is taking place on the other side of the Sun with 3098. 

N.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Do you have any more thoughts?

Well, not really much more than I've already said; I think it will just continue to weaken, as it seems to be the dying remnant of 3088 that has now reoriented its field sufficiently for there to be little to no shear, as evidenced by the lack of a strong magnetic field at the boundary I outlined. I do believe it would still have to pass as a delta, due to how the umbra definitely seems to be shared between the two polarities, also hinted from the relatively strong penumbra of the positive region there. That is how I interpret it.

26 minutes ago, Newbie said:

although it did just pop a C7.7 flare

Well, I suppose "little to no shear" might have been an exaggeration, there's clearly still some activity going on there apparently.

[Newbie]

26 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Well, I suppose "little to no shear" might have been an exaggeration, there's clearly still some activity going on there apparently.

TBH I didn't really expect much activity from the region seeing it had only produced a couple of C flares since turning into view. 

N.

[Landon Moeller]

12 hours ago, Orneno said:

We need something to happen, look how low this solar wind speed is!!

Well, something sure has happened this morning 😄😆. Not sure quite what it is but it sure is interesting!

[Sam Warfel]

Seems like a CIR

[Landon Moeller]

23 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Seems like a CIR

and a slow one at that! goodness

[lifeblack]

I was looking at the large spots in both the magnetogram and the intensitygram, curious to see whether the blue and red regions coexisted inside the same umbra.  Verdict: no.  Here's the animated GIF I made showing it:

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, lifeblack said:

I was looking at the large spots in both the magnetogram and the intensitygram, curious to see whether the blue and red regions coexisted inside the same umbra.  Verdict: no. 

On very close scrutiny, I believe you're actually right. Now that I look more closely at exactly where the boundary of the umbra itself is, it seems that the umbra itself actually does not extend into the positive region, but that it crosses over into the positive region right where the umbra and penumbra meet. I presume that's essentially what you get when the field lines are pointing straight from one polarity right into the other next to it. Seeing as how you'd be hard-pressed to say that the positive region has any umbrae, I would guess this is indeed an example of an orphan penumbra, and thus that the region is currently not delta.

Here's another closeup for reference:

[MinYoongi]

Is the region growing?

[Philalethes]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Is the region growing?

[WildWill]

21 hours ago, lifeblack said:

I was looking at the large spots in both the magnetogram and the intensitygram, curious to see whether the blue and red regions coexisted inside the same umbra.  Verdict: no.  Here's the animated GIF I made showing it:

 

19 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

On very close scrutiny, I believe you're actually right. Now that I look more closely at exactly where the boundary of the umbra itself is, it seems that the umbra itself actually does not extend into the positive region, but that it crosses over into the positive region right where the umbra and penumbra meet. I presume that's essentially what you get when the field lines are pointing straight from one polarity right into the other next to it. Seeing as how you'd be hard-pressed to say that the positive region has any umbrae, I would guess this is indeed an example of an orphan penumbra, and thus that the region is currently not delta.

Here's another closeup for reference:

Howdy PB & Lifeblack and all the rest of y'all! 
Good Morning or whatever it is wherever you are.

I just wanted to point out that these two images were made from two totally different instruments.

There is a lot of post processing going into the final images (or products) .

Some of the images are "flattened", probably with a combination of an optical focal reducer & flattener as well as computer post processing of the images. The colorized Magnetogram is completely computer generated from the Magnetogram (B&W). It's really good, but it's not perfect.

The point being, you cant expect a perfect overlay when you put those images together like that.  Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great tool. Definitely very cool. Just realize that there is a lot of automatic processing going on, with all the images.

The take-aways I've gotten from studying about this are: #1 - these images are a little distorted. The flattener reduces certain aberrations which are inherent with any telescope system.  

#2. you can't really expect things to line up absolutely perfect with these  images.  Very close, but generally the farther from the center of the fov, the greater the distortions.  The flattener will reduce spherical aberration, but it's not perfect.  
 

Just something to keep in the back of your head when you are looking at these. If it doesn't line up exactly the way you expected, it may in fact be the way you expected, but the flattener and post processing / compute generation can cause things to be "off" between the images.  We are not talking about much at all, just a tid-bit!  
 

It's a great tool, just keep that in mind in the back of your head. Also note, the distortions will tend to increase as you move outward from the center. 
 

Cheers! 
 

WnAK

😉

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

 

Howdy PB & Lifeblack and all the rest of y'all! 
Good Morning or whatever it is wherever you are.

I just wanted to point out that these two images were made from two totally different instruments.

There is a lot of post processing going into the final images (or products) .

Some of the images are "flattened", probably with a combination of an optical focal reducer & flattener as well as computer post processing of the images. The colorized Magnetogram is completely computer generated from the Magnetogram (B&W). It's really good, but it's not perfect.

The point being, you cant expect a perfect overlay when you put those images together like that.  Don't get me wrong, I think it's a great tool. Definitely very cool. Just realize that there is a lot of automatic processing going on, with all the images.

The take-aways I've gotten from studying about this are: #1 - these images are a little distorted. The flattener reduces certain aberrations which are inherent with any telescope system.  

#2. you can't really expect things to line up absolutely perfect with these  images.  Very close, but generally the farther from the center of the fov, the greater the distortions.  The flattener will reduce spherical aberration, but it's not perfect.  
 

Just something to keep in the back of your head when you are looking at these. If it doesn't line up exactly the way you expected, it may in fact be the way you expected, but the flattener and post processing / compute generation can cause things to be "off" between the images.  We are not talking about much at all, just a tid-bit!  
 

It's a great tool, just keep that in mind in the back of your head. Also note, the distortions will tend to increase as you move outward from the center. 

I've considered all of that, but the thing is that you can very often identify parts of the regions where the overlay is absolutely identical, even when the spots are near the limbs, and the differences ("aberrations") seem to really not be so much due to flattening, but rather due to the magnetic fields being skewed relative to the spots for the most active areas. You can generally see this as a mismatch between the locations of the umbrae within a given polarity and the color gradient shown in the m-gram. This is, as far as I understand, primarily due to how the field lines have various directions. The polarities at the surface considered do themselves match up between the colorized m-gram and the original, so one should still expect to see this match between the former and the i-gram, which does indeed seem to be observed from what I've been able to tell.

In fact, even in this case nearer to the edge you can upon very close scrutiny see that the change of polarity occurs right at the boundary between the umbra and the relevant part of the penumbra, a near perfect match when I zoomed in very deeply and traced the outline.

[WildWill]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I've considered all of that, but the thing is that you can very often identify parts of the regions where the overlay is absolutely identical, even when the spots are near the limbs, and the differences ("aberrations") seem to really not be so much due to flattening, but rather due to the magnetic fields being skewed relative to the spots for the most active areas. You can generally see this as a mismatch between the locations of the umbrae within a given polarity and the color gradient shown in the m-gram. This is, as far as I understand, primarily due to how the field lines have various directions. The polarities at the surface considered do themselves match up between the colorized m-gram and the original, so one should still expect to see this match between the former and the i-gram, which does indeed seem to be observed from what I've been able to tell.

In fact, even in this case nearer to the edge you can upon very close scrutiny see that the change of polarity occurs right at the boundary between the umbra and the relevant part of the penumbra, a near perfect match when I zoomed in very deeply and traced the outline.

Hey,

I am only pointing out a fact about the images. I was not referring to any image in particular, but all images.

So if you see something and it's just not quite what you expected... off just a bit, or elongated or stretched a little bit. 
 

All I'm saying is that the images don't necessarily match from one type to another because of flattening and post processing.

These are just facts.  If you're interested in the optics, this provides an excellent primer for Astronomical optics.

I think the overlays are a great tool for looking at groups. I just wanted to point out a couple of facts, which might come in handy when something that should be spot on, isn't,  

Thats all!

All y'all have a nice day!

WnAK

 

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, WildWill said:

Hey,

I am only pointing out a fact about the images. I was not referring to any image in particular, but all images.

So if you see something and it's just not quite what you expected... off just a bit, or elongated or stretched a little bit. 
 

All I'm saying is that the images don't necessarily match from one type to another because of flattening and post processing.

These are just facts.  If you're interested in the optics, this provides an excellent primer for Astronomical optics.

I think the overlays are a great tool for looking at groups. I just wanted to point out a couple of facts, which might come in handy when something that should be spot on, isn't,  

Thats all!

 

Yes, and I was pointing out that this "fact" might not actually be as factual as you think, because the m-gram is divided into polarities that match the non-flattened version exactly, while the i-gram I'm using is the non-flattened one as well, specifically because I noticed that this combination produces exact matches in terms of polarity. As such, like I just pointed out, the only "stretching" produced is that of the magnetic gradients being offset from the center of the umbrae for the most magnetically active spots, due to the direction of the magnetic field lines there, while the polarities themselves will still match more or less perfectly. I've yet to see any comparison to make me think otherwise, even close to the limb.

[MinYoongi]

Can someone tell me why were still above C levels?

[Newbie]

23 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Can someone tell me why were still above C levels?

Hello Min, regions 3098 and 3102 have activity at C class level,  keeping the combined flux above C.

N.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Newbie

[MinYoongi]

46 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Min, regions 3098 and 3102 have activity at C class level,  keeping the combined flux above C.

N.

But looking at Suvi, 3102 looks very calm and not complex.. did it get more complex?

[Newbie]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But looking at Suvi, 3102 looks very calm and not complex.. did it get more complex?

There were a couple of flares from 3102 earlier, synoptic map shows 35% chance of C flares. However 3098 would be the main contributor. Remember 10.7 cm solar X ray flux graph measures all of the output from every region on the Sun. Chance of C flares from 3098 is still 90%. Overall chance of C is 99%. Expect to see flux drop when 3098 passes the limb... and on Suvi 3098 still looks fairly active. What do you think Min?

N.

Certainly 3098 and 3102 appear the most active. 

I don't see much change in 3102 although a new tiny spot has formed near the smaller northern spot. Nothing of consequence I would have thought!