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AR13102 watch party! (Old 3088)


WildWill

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1 minute ago, farm24 said:

i was looking at recent CMEs and it appears to have ejected a quite decent CME at 07:48 UTC 9/11/22 although it looks a little high and behind the limb to be it but it very well could have been ejected from the region

 

 

do you have imagery?

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

do you have imagery?

here it doesnt look as significant as i thought but it looks like maybe it had a small proton event related to it but that could be unrelated (removed google drive link it isnt working)

here is the link it should be working https://drive.google.com/file/d/13RMXRxGcxOjKuujKgR2XJ6HgUrA3SkB_/view

Edited by farm24
google drive being dumb dumb
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12 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

The flux loops are impressive, but, as Debby Downer and her consort Bobby Bummer might say, "Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results."

There's two names I haven't heard in a while! Lol!

Please don't burst the bubble of hope! 

Having said that it had better start doing something soon!

N.

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27 minutes ago, Newbie said:

There's two names I haven't heard in a while! Lol!

Please don't burst the bubble of hope! 

Having said that it had better start doing something soon!

N.

f1df7c96455fdb855c15546d9f97d211.png

is this the full region? i have a question. why is noaa giving 5% x chance starting tomorrow and not today?

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3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

f1df7c96455fdb855c15546d9f97d211.png

is this the full region? i have a question. why is noaa giving 5% x chance starting tomorrow and not today?

Lol Min hedging their bets? As per previous discussions who knows the mind of NOAA. Seriously they may expect a little something from 3098 I haven't had a chance to look at it properly. What do you think?

N.

It does appear to be the full region, I had hoped for more!

N

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2 hours ago, Newbie said:

Lol Min hedging their bets? As per previous discussions who knows the mind of NOAA. Seriously they may expect a little something from 3098 I haven't had a chance to look at it properly. What do you think?

N.

It does appear to be the full region, I had hoped for more!

N

May I ask, the white surrounding the Area, is that "Plage" ?

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1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

May I ask, the white surrounding the Area, is that "Plage" ?

Hello Min some definitions. 

Facula.

A bright cloud-like feature located a few hundred km above the photosphere near sunspot groups, seen in white light. Facula are seldom visible except near the solar limb, although they occur all across the Sun. Facula are clouds of emission that occur where a strong magnetic field creates extra heat (about 300 degrees K above surrounding areas). It is often an indication that a sunspot has died however it can herald the emergence of new sunspots too.

Plage.

An extended emission feature of an active region that exists from the emergence of the first magnetic flux until the widely scattered remnant magnetic fields merge with the background. This bright feature is found in the vicinity of virtually all active sunspot groups and occurs on a larger scale and are brighter than facula. Plage is French for "beach," because each plage looks like light-colored sand against the darker structures around them.

From the definitions it appears plage areas are brighter than faculae so the brightest white areas would be areas of plage. The not so bright areas would be faculae. 

N.

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1 hour ago, Newbie said:

 

Hello Min some definitions. 
 

Facula.

A bright cloud-like feature located a few hundred km above the photosphere near sunspot groups, seen in white light. Facula are seldom visible except near the solar limb, although they occur all across the Sun. Facula are clouds of emission that occur where a strong magnetic field creates extra heat (about 300 degrees K above surrounding areas). It is often an indication that a sunspot has died however it can herald the emergence of new sunspots too.

Plage.

An extended emission feature of an active region that exists from the emergence of the first magnetic flux until the widely scattered remnant magnetic fields merge with the background. This bright feature is found in the vicinity of virtually all active sunspot groups and occurs on a larger scale and are brighter than facula. Plage is French for "beach," because each plage looks like light-colored sand against the darker structures around them.

From the definitions it appears plage areas are brighter than faculae so the brightest white areas would be areas of plage. The not so bright areas would be faculae. 

N.

Youre the best :) 

 

Question for everyone, is 3088 still a big sunspot? 

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5 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

It's still not so easy to say just how extensive it is, but it's got at least one sizeable spot that has already rotated well into view. Looks like there's more to come from the m-gram.

But where Couldnt it be plage? Because on the i gram its white and i dont see alot in farside imagery? Also that would be another region i guess because there would be alot of spacing between them 

Sorry for the typos, on mobile :)

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33 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

But where Couldnt it be plage? Because on the i gram its white and i dont see alot in farside imagery? Also that would be another region i guess because there would be alot of spacing between them 

Sorry for the typos, on mobile :)

Yeah, it could very well be that it's mostly died down. There seems to be at least one other small spot there, but other than that it's just the larger spot that's already in view.

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8 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

f1df7c96455fdb855c15546d9f97d211.png

is this the full region? i have a question. why is noaa giving 5% x chance starting tomorrow and not today?

I've just checked the NOAA synoptic map and they have updated details for 3098: 70/20/5/10,  C/M/X/Proton. I suspected as much. Overall, the chance of X flares has increased to 10% and the chance of a proton event to 15%. M is at 35%.

Of interest they have designated old 3088, 3102. Chance of flares for 3102: 55/15/1/5, C/M/X/Proton.

N.

 

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  • Sam Warfel changed the title to AR13102 watch party! (Old 3088)

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