AR13102 watch party! (Old 3088)

[WildWill]

Not so fast all y’all!

 

To me, it appears that AR13088 my not have made it around. AR13100 kinda looks like it could be the old AR13086 and AR13102, the old AR13089. 

Thoughts? 
 

 

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, WildWill said:

Not so fast all y’all!

 

To me, it appears that AR13088 my not have made it around. AR13100 kinda looks like it could be the old AR13086 and AR13102, the old AR13089. 

Thoughts? 
 

 

3089 is still farsided, i think. I watched the farside maps every day and its 100% the old 13088.

[Landon Moeller]

42 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

3089 is still farsided, i think. I watched the farside maps every day and its 100% the old 13088.

Min is correct here. 3089 is currently in the direct center of the far side, latitudinally speaking. 

 

Side note: New probabilities for 3102 are as follows-- 20/5/1/10

Edited September 13, 2022 by Landon Moeller

[3gMike]

45 minutes ago, WildWill said:

Not so fast all y’all!

 

To me, it appears that AR13088 my not have made it around. AR13100 kinda looks like it could be the old AR13086 and AR13102, the old AR13089. 

Thoughts? 
 

 

Hi Wild Will,

You can easily convince yourself that AR13100 cannot be the old AR13088 by looking at Helio HEC database. It holds a detailed record for all recent sunspots.

This link takes you to AR13100 http://helio.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/hec/hec_gui_free.php?sql=select+*+from+noaa_active_region_summary+where+nar%3D13100

You can then search for the other spots and will see that the Carrington coordinates are all different.

If you search AR13089 you will see that it is at Carrington 195. If you then look at JSOC farside image  http://jsoc.stanford.edu/data/farside/ you will see a white 'blob' centred on Carrington 195

Hoping this makes it clear.

[Sam Warfel]

As much as I wish this wasn’t it and 3088 is still hiding un-decayed around the limb, I’m afraid this is all we get 😅

[Yak]

this sucks   If we start throwing insults at the sun maybe it will get more angry. 

[WildWill]

On 9/12/2022 at 9:23 AM, Orneno said:

Topic merged, no worries 

We believe this AR to be the return of the very notable AR3088

I wanna see it come a little farther around the limb before I pass judgement...

3g, thanks for that additional data.  I'm still not gonna say hooray hooray!  I've spent most of the day looking at images from late August and 1st and 3rd September.  
 

Tell me please, what was 3100 last time around? Also 3098,  last time around?

I just wanna better view. 
 

SFT also made note of the x-ray flux climbing into the C territory.  I believe we saw the same thing from 3088 - and it dropped down as 3088 went around the limb...

 

Howdy All y'all!

imma gonna hold off a little bit 'afore making a judgement - I am kinda new at this...  so, tomorrow! Gotta get back to the observatory!

All Y'all have ya a great day!

WnAK

Edited September 13, 2022 by WildWill

[3gMike]

51 minutes ago, WildWill said:

Tell me please, what was 3100 last time around? Also 3098,  last time around?

I just wanna better view. 

Will, The areas in which these spots now exist did not produce spots on the last rotation. If you look at sunspots in the SWL archive for 9th September you can see that AR13098 just appeared at -17 longitude. The case for AR13100 is not quite so clear, because it first appeared on 11th September at -48 longitude - but that is still some distance from the limb. If you look at sunspots in the SWL archive you can see it came around the limb as a plage area on the 9th September, then the spot developed a couple of days later.

[Solarflaretracker200]

3 hours ago, WildWill said:

Not so fast all y’all!

 

To me, it appears that AR13088 my not have made it around. AR13100 kinda looks like it could be the old AR13086 and AR13102, the old AR13089. 

Thoughts? 
 

 

I hate to break it to you…but this is what we usually get the second/third time (if that happens)

[Drax Spacex]

7 hours ago, Chris, HB9DFG said:

Hello all

Despite of any activity that may still be present - beautiful it is - the spot. It looks like a big
voluminous tree with a big trunk!

Regards, Chris

Source: jsoc.stanford.edu

As did AR3088, AR3102 seems to maintained that somewhat slanted vertical orientation between the main sunspots rather than the usual left and right orientation.

Chicken embryo.  The number 3, 6, or 9. The letter C.  This sunspot is definitely down with the swirl!  Let's go!  Hard 6, no craps, no snake eyes!

This curvaceousness could yield sigmoid structures which are correlated with increased chance of flaring.

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by Drax Spacex
or 9 when flipped vertically

[jon_helioastro]

Having a look at the Magnetograms intensively the Beta + spot seems to have a developing sunspot of (-) polarity by its side, very close to the penumbra. there appears to be a tiny slit differentiating them but my eyes aren't the best, would a Beta - Delta be correct? To the south we have a small pore in development of negative polarity and to the north a positive pore in development.

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, jon_helioastro said:

Having a look at the Magnetograms intensively the Beta + spot seems to have a developing sunspot of (-) polarity by its side, very close to the penumbra. there appears to be a tiny slit differentiating them but my eyes aren't the best, would a Beta - Delta be correct? To the south we have a small pore in development of negative polarity and to the north a positive pore in development.

Can you encircle it?

[WildWill]

41 minutes ago, jon_helioastro said:

Having a look at the Magnetograms intensively the Beta + spot seems to have a developing sunspot of (-) polarity by its side, very close to the penumbra. there appears to be a tiny slit differentiating them but my eyes aren't the best, would a Beta - Delta be correct? To the south we have a small pore in development of negative polarity and to the north a positive pore in development.

Can you repost this in "Show me the deltas" and let's get some opinions,.,

Edited September 14, 2022 by WildWill

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, jon_helioastro said:

Having a look at the Magnetograms intensively the Beta + spot seems to have a developing sunspot of (-) polarity by its side, very close to the penumbra. there appears to be a tiny slit differentiating them but my eyes aren't the best, would a Beta - Delta be correct? To the south we have a small pore in development of negative polarity and to the north a positive pore in development.

Hello Jon, I wouldn't call it a delta for the time being I would stay with beta classification. 

N.

 

2 hours ago, Drax Spacex said:

As did AR3088, AR3102 seems to maintained that somewhat slanted vertical orientation between the main sunspots rather than the usual left and right orientation.

Chicken embryo.  The number 3, 6, or 9. The letter C.  This sunspot is definitely down with the swirl!  Let's go!  Hard 6, no craps, no snake eyes!

This curvaceousness could yield sigmoid structures which are correlated with increased chance of flaring.

 

Drax Spacex I checked our good old sigma sniffer and there doesn't appear to be any sigmoid activity associated with 3102 for now. Of course that can change. There does seem to be a distinct lack of activity on the part of 3102. NOAA has dropped chance of X flares back to 5%, the expectation is 3098 is the most likely culprit in this department. 

There was sigmoid activity around 3100 however. 

N.

[MinYoongi]

14 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hello Jon, I wouldn't call it a delta for the time being I would stay with beta classification. 

N.

 

Drax Spacex I checked our good old sigma sniffer and there doesn't appear to be any sigmoid activity associated with 3102 for now. Of course that can change. There does seem to be a distinct lack of activity on the part of 3102. NOAA has dropped chance of X flares back to 5%, the expectation is 3098 is the most likely culprit in this department. 

There was sigmoid activity around 3100 however. 

N.

We need @Philalethes Bythos overlay skills To me it kinda looks like a delta too but idk.

[mozy]

That certainly looks like a delta.

[Sam Warfel]

We need something to happen, look how low this solar wind speed is!!

[MinYoongi]

33 minutes ago, mozy said:

That certainly looks like a delta.

But not much shear? Why does noaa call it beta then, did it newly form?

[Solarflaretracker200]

14 minutes ago, Orneno said:

We need something to happen, look how low this solar wind speed is!!

Dang that’s like solar min wind lol

Edited September 14, 2022 by Solarflaretracker200

[Jesterface23]

1 hour ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

Dang that’s like solar min wind lol

Sunspot regions gotta fit somewhere on the disk

[Newbie]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

We need @Philalethes Bythos overlay skills To me it kinda looks like a delta too but idk.

IMO I still don't see a delta. The small spot at the top was more a candidate for delta it has weakened, the larger spot on the intensitygram has areas of negative and positive polarity close together. Not enough evidence for a delta even now... but look this can change, additionally it is not producing flares as you might expect from a complex region. 3098 on the other hand is blowing them out non stop almost....and we, PB and myself called it delta before it had popped the M1.7 yesterday. It did quiten afterwards but it has picked up in activity. Only solen came to the delta party and was late. Lone voices in the wilderness....but dentifying deltas is contentious. 

And so I have to check everything again before I post so it doesn't make a liar out of me. The Sun is tricky like that.

N.

[MinYoongi]

50 minutes ago, Newbie said:

IMO I still don't see a delta. The small spot at the top was more a candidate for delta it has weakened, the larger spot on the intensitygram has areas of negative and positive polarity close together. Not enough evidence for a delta even now... but look this can change, additionally it is not producing flares as you might expect from a complex region. 3098 on the other hand is blowing them out non stop almost....and we, PB and myself called it delta before it had popped the M1.7 yesterday. It did quiten afterwards but it has picked up in activity. Only solen came to the delta party and was late. Lone voices in the wilderness....but dentifying deltas is contentious. 

And so I have to check everything again before I post so it doesn't make a liar out of me. The Sun is tricky like that.

N.

The assa algorythm classifies it as BGD. Can be faulty of course, since its not made by humans.

 

one more question that i think i asked again but :

Did a delta form or did noaa mis-classify the region?

[Newbie]

24 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

8

The assa algorythm classifies it as BGD. Can be faulty of course, since its not made by humans.

 

one more question that i think i asked again but :

Did a delta form or did noaa mis-classify the region?

Hi Min  I thought the small area to the north was closer to a delta earlier on but has simplified. I haven't seen this active region called anything other than beta by anyone except a couple of posts here and the image you just posted. I wish it were BGD we might get some decent activity. There hasn't been any sigmoid activity recently, I haven't checked last hour, that might indicate twisting of magnetic fields. Solen is silent and hasn't updated since 0:00 UT. NOAA hasn't changed their forecast TMK and even lowered the chance of X flares. The best evidence of magnetic complexity is flaring and I have only seen two lower grade C flares since 10:00 UT yesterday attributed to the region. All the activity is with 3098.  What do you think Min!

N.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Newbie

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Hi Min  I thought the small area to the north was closer to a delta earlier on but has simplified. I haven't seen this active region called anything other than beta by anyone except a couple of posts here and the image you just posted. I wish it were BGD we might get some decent activity. There hasn't been any sigmoid activity recently, I haven't checked last hour, that might indicate twisting of magnetic fields. Solen is silent and hasn't updated since 0:00 UT. NOAA hasn't changed their forecast TMK and even lowered the chance of X flares. The best evidence of magnetic complexity is flaring and I have only seen two lower grade C flares since 10:00 UT yesterday attributed to the region. All the activity is with 3098.  What do you think Min!

N.

I fully agree with you. But I dont trust noaa  ! 

[Newbie]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

I fully agree with you. But I dont trust noaa  ! 

I know Min, it's those boys at the airforce bases who churn out the data. 😄 

N.