AR13089

[Sam Warfel]

6 minutes ago, AlbellaKutta said:

Thank you for your response.  Have made a cancelable air ticket reservation.  The 27 day Aurora forecast from https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast shows only KP of 2 around the equinox, but forecasts that far out are , as I understand a low conviction forecast; so hopefully we get lucky.  

 

Those forecasts can only show predicted recurring coronal holes, and it might not even be able to do that this far out. The more major cause of auroral activity, CMEs, are not predictable in the long-term forecast. If it’s Fairbanks, I think your odds are pretty good. Like I said, check out that Facebook group, maybe ask some of the folks in Fairbanks for their opinion since they’d know best. 

[mozy]

Something tells me this region is gonna become a X-flare producer around the limb 😅

[Solarflaretracker200]

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Something tells me this region is gonna become a X-flare producer around the limb 😅

That seems about right. 

[mozy]

10 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

That seems about right. 

I'm getting some Deja vu feelings from this one, I don't remember which region I'm thinking of that did this before or when it occurred but it was quiet all along the disk but once it got the limb it started producing massive flares, and this one just keeps growing aswell.

I'm waiting for it to happen again 👀

[Solarflaretracker200]

6 minutes ago, mozy said:

I'm getting some Deja vu feelings from this one, I don't remember which region I'm thinking of that did this before or when it occurred but it was quiet all along the disk but once it got the limb it started producing massive flares, and this one just keeps growing aswell.

I'm waiting for it to happen again 👀

You’re talking about that one that did like the X2.2 or something?

[mozy]

1 minute ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

You’re talking about that one that did like the X2.2 or something?

Really not sure which region I'm thinking of honestly lmao, I just got a sudden deja vu that something like this is gonna happen again with this region 😝

[MinYoongi]

15 minutes ago, mozy said:

Really not sure which region I'm thinking of honestly lmao, I just got a sudden deja vu that something like this is gonna happen again with this region 😝

I remember, we chatted about that when it happened, haha! And before it was quiet and only giving us super, super impulsive flares with no ejecta.

 

Is it just growing or becoming complexer?

[Solarflaretracker200]

16 minutes ago, mozy said:

Really not sure which region I'm thinking of honestly lmao, I just got a sudden deja vu that something like this is gonna happen again with this region 😝

Lmao I won’t be surprised if it does 

[mozy]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I remember, we chatted about that when it happened, haha! And before it was quiet and only giving us super, super impulsive flares with no ejecta.

 

Is it just growing or becoming complexer?

Both, rapidly so in the southern part of the region.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, mozy said:

 in the southern part of the region.

I'm not really seeing it. Im gonna look at SDO movies, when did it appromaxily start?

[mozy]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I'm not really seeing it. Im gonna look at SDO movies, when did it appromaxily start?

Around 14:45 UTC you really start seeing the new area starting to grow rapidly

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, mozy said:

Around 14:45 UTC you really start seeing the new area starting to grow rapidly

Thank you, i've not been looking at it for the whole day so i did not really notice it. 

It went through some phases of trailing spot growth & decay over the last few days, the leading spots did not change too much

[mozy]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you, i've not been looking at it for the whole day so i did not really notice it. 

It went through some phases of trailing spot growth & decay over the last few days, the leading spots did not change too much

The new growing area is interesting because it's both polarities growing together next to each other, if they keep that up one would assume we're gonna get more activity.

X-ray flux is steadily reaching higher levels throughout the day also.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

The new growing area is interesting because it's both polarities growing together next to each other, if they keep that up one would assume we're gonna get more activity.

X-ray flux is steadily reaching higher levels throughout the day also.

It started around B6-7 and stayed there mostly, just short C class flares and now long duration C class flare(s) like yesterday in the evening/night..  

[MinYoongi]

5 hours ago, mozy said:

The new growing area is interesting because it's both polarities growing together next to each other, if they keep that up one would assume we're gonna get more activity.

X-ray flux is steadily reaching higher levels throughout the day also.

Btw, as its approaching the limb and grwon so much, do you or maybe @Philalethes Bythos mind pointing out delta/s to me? the more mixed a region gets, the harder it is for me. with the trailing portion delta it was pretty easy.  

[mozy]

4 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Btw, as its approaching the limb and grwon so much, do you or maybe @Philalethes Bythos mind pointing out delta/s to me? the more mixed a region gets, the harder it is for me. with the trailing portion delta it was pretty easy.  

It's getting harder to spot them as it's so far west now, but as of now it doesn't look like it really has a defined delta spot as there's still much separations within the penumbral areas.

There's still that small spot from before but it's so small it's not even anything to talk about.