AR13089

[Philalethes]

22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

On Suvi it looks to be kind off flare-y still. i think 3088 is contributing most to the high Background flux then?

I can see what you mean when looking at the SUVI imagery, and there are still some spots near each other in the middle, so that could very well be.

[Drax Spacex]

13 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

Both regions tag teaming looking at SDO and Suvi

AR3088 may have had some high C flare or even M flares embedded within the whole-disk X-Ray flux in the hours after the M7.24 AR3089 flare (08-26 1200-1800 UT).  In particular, I think the bump in X-Ray flux at 14:33 M1.86 may have been from AR3088.

https://ibb.co/W6yjjNM

Edited August 27, 2022 by Drax Spacex
image link

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Drax Spacex said:

AR3088 may have had some high C flare or even M flares embedded within the whole-disk X-Ray flux in the hours after the M7.24 AR3079 flare (08-26 1200-1800 UT).  In particular, I think the bump in X-Ray flux at 14:33 M1.86 may have been from AR3088.

youre absolutely right  ! 

[MinYoongi]

For me it is still very, very hard to see if there are any deltas because the AR is so mixed and there are such tiny specs.

and im just wondering if the region is beta gamma or beta gamma delta. i hate not being able to learn and having to depend on noaa because they were wrong/late multiple times now .

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

For me it is still very, very hard to see if there are any deltas because the AR is so mixed and there are such tiny specs.

and im just wondering if the region is beta gamma or beta gamma delta. i hate not being able to learn and having to depend on noaa because they were wrong/late multiple times now .

Solen calls it beta gamma delta, yeah there are weakened delta spots. That central area was delta for most of yesterday according to Solen.

N.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Newbie

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

Solen calls it beta gamma delta, yeah there are weakened delta spots. That central area was delta for most of yesterday according to Solen.

N.

Solen is almost 24h old rn 😕

[Newbie]

26 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Solen is almost 24h old rn 😕

Exactly

N

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Newbie said:

Exactly

N

That's what is frustrating me so much. I dont want to relay on Noaa or Solen or anything, i want to get experienced enough to see for myself. I always struggle with finding deltas, especially in well mixed groups. Maybe im too harsh on myself and not giving myself enough time.. 😋

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

That's what is frustrating me so much. I dont want to relay on Noaa or Solen or anything, i want to get experienced enough to see for myself. I always struggle with finding deltas, especially in well mixed groups. Maybe im too harsh on myself and not giving myself enough time.. 😋

Yeah I get it Min, fact is no one really wants to jump out on a limb and declare a delta and end up wearing egg. 

Something also to consider is that the Active Regions are not static, their magnetic fields are continully in a state of flux. For example I looked at a delta in the HMI originally when you first posted an hour later it had weakened considerably to maybe not even being delta. So you post, Yeah it's a delta, an hour later it's gone and everyone is saying there's no delta there. Get my point?

That's mainly why I tend to hold back until it's reported officially. That central area of 3089 was a delta to me yesterday but now it has lost most of its complexity. The other thing to consider is that we have access to continually updated images whereas those agencies are only doing their updates once or twice a day so they may lag behind.

When you have the pink - red parts so close to light blue - blue parts that they are inside each other it's a good chance that they are delta, are weak delta or at the least have the potential to become delta....no need to be hard on yourself you obviously have a great passion for all things space weather like everyone and I think we are all friends here!

Newbie

 

 

Edited August 27, 2022 by Newbie

[Philalethes]

6 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

That's what is frustrating me so much. I dont want to relay on Noaa or Solen or anything, i want to get experienced enough to see for myself. I always struggle with finding deltas, especially in well mixed groups. Maybe im too harsh on myself and not giving myself enough time.. 😋

The way I try to do it is by comparing the magnetogram with the intensitygram, since the former shows the polarities (even in areas the intensitygram doesn't cover at all), and the latter shows more clearly where the actual umbrae and penumbrae are. What I'm looking for is mainly umbrae on the intensitygram that are of different polarity and close enough together to essentially share the same penumbra.

As far as I can see on the latest from SDO, there are no such regions; below I've highlighted the two regions that seem most likely to potentially develop into deltas, to the upper left a negative penumbra close to a positive umbra, and to the lower right a relatively larger positive penumbra close to the smaller negative umbrae next to the two large ones. However, there doesn't seem to be that much mixing anymore, since the bottom right larger positive penumbra is connected to the rest of the positive region, and the smaller negative penumbra on the top left seems very small.

Edited August 27, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[MinYoongi]

The Region Yesterday: 

The Region Today: 

(just for archiving purposes  ) 

 

So according to noaa this region is only beta as of now. 😕 

 

 

but to me it looks like beta gamma?

[Philalethes]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

So according to noaa this region is only beta as of now. 😕 

 

but to me it looks like beta gamma?

Seems like all the sunspots of the two polarities can be relatively cleanly divided like this:

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Seems like all the sunspots of the two polarities can be relatively cleanly divided like this:

So the region is not in decay but getting uncomplexer? I think @mozy called this "drifting apart"  

[Philalethes]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

So the region is not in decay but getting uncomplexer? I think @mozy called this "drifting apart"  

I'm not sure if I would say that just yet. It lost the delta in the middle, but there is some other activity that's interesting. Here's the most recent comparison:

There are a couple of things that seem interesting to me:

First, that little positive spot that just appeared above the negative region.

Secondly, and much more interesting to me, are those two regions I highlighted previously, i.e. the positive region hugging the negative one from below, and the negative region up top doing the same. These regions appear to have the same filamentary structure as penumbrae, but without any accompanying umbrae; after digging a bit on the web, I found out that these are so-called "orphan penumbrae" (to join the zoo of terms along with cannibal CMEs and anemone ARs), and have received some study in the literature. I believe I read somewhere that they aren't all that common, but I'm not sure to what degree that is really the case; I'm still reading more about those as we speak, so it's hard to know exactly what impact they tend to have, but to me they do at least seem interesting, and like a sign that the overall region might be a bit more complex than it seems at first glance.

[MinYoongi]

Very interesting @Philalethes Bythos! Please update me further  !  I dont know if the region is losing complexity or not. 

[Philalethes]

59 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Very interesting @Philalethes Bythos! Please update me further  !  I dont know if the region is losing complexity or not. 

Yeah, now that Solar activity is picking up in general I'll be keeping an eye out for anything interesting. I agree that it's not easy to tell whether or not this spot in particular is picking up or dying down, time will tell.

As an aside, although not the topic of this thread (even though it's what OP originally referred to when making the thread, and it's about to leave us anyway, so no point in making a thread of its own for it now I guess), take a look at 3088:

That delta on the right there is extremely obvious, the umbrae of different polarities are basically smashed together into a single spot without any penumbra in between at all. On the very left there are also tendencies for a delta, and overall it's a clear gamma due to how the positive polarities are isolated on each side of the negative in the middle. No wonder this thing keeps flaring. Strange that it never got the designation beta-gamma-delta, though, at least to me it seems quite obvious that it fulfills the criteria.

[MinYoongi]

The Region still seems to be growing in the Red part. But still Beta i think.

[Philalethes]

Latest:

That negative spot to the top left seems to be developing. I still don't think it would qualify as a gamma, since you could still draw a fairly uncomplicated line separating the positive and the negative spots (albeit not a straight one as previously).

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Latest:

That negative spot to the top left seems to be developing. I still don't think it would qualify as a gamma, since you could still draw a fairly uncomplicated line separating the positive and the negative spots (albeit not a straight one as previously).

May i ask how you produce those videos? I love it!

Btw: why does noaa give 10% for X for this region now ?(syntoptic map 4UTC)

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

May i ask how you produce those videos? I love it!

Btw: why does noaa give 10% for X for this region now ?(syntoptic map 4UTC)

That's harder to tell. They probably process a lot more data in more complex ways to reach their conclusions; perhaps you should get in touch with one of them and ask, and present your findings here if you receive an answer.

As for the gifs, currently I crop out the exact same area of interest from the latest colored magnetogram and intensitygram (the regular one, not the flattened one as previously, since it seems to match the best), and then upload them to this online gif maker. I set the "Delay time" to 100 (equals 1 second) to have them pause briefly between transitions, and turn on "crossfade frames" and set "Fader delay" to 12 (this determines how fast it will transition, you can change this later by using the "speed" option) and set "Frame count" to 20 (the maximum, determines how smooth the transition is). You can of course play around with all the options if you try it.

I wrote a couple of lines of bash script to automate downloading both those latest images, and a single line so I can specify the area I want to crop out, but before that I was just refreshing the links from SDO, downloading them, using an online cropper where you can specify the exact area (in order to get the exact same from both images), and then running them through the gif maker. I also looked at the options for making the gif locally via script as well, but that was quite slow (probably because of this rusty old laptop that has seen its better days), so I'll stick with the online one for now.

EDIT:

Actually, now that I think of it, the reason it was so slow previously was because I was making a gif of the entire 4096x4096 image before cropping it; now that I tried it by making a gif out of the already cropped parts it went much faster, so now I can essentially skip the online gif maker entirely. The above procedure still works of course; if you know how to run bash scripts and want the few lines I wrote, let me know.

Edited August 28, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[MinYoongi]

That sounds unbelievably hard to do, atleast for me lol  Im the worst when it comes to tech. So i really appreciate those effort and the gifs @Philalethes Bythos! The region is growing very slowly, but i dont know if its really getting more complex.

[Philalethes]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

That sounds unbelievably hard to do, atleast for me lol  Im the worst when it comes to tech. So i really appreciate those effort and the gifs @Philalethes Bythos! The region is growing very slowly, but i dont know if its really getting more complex.

Cropping them and using the gif maker as I outlined is pretty straightforward, but definitely time-consuming; hence why I wrote the tiny scripts to save that time, but that does indeed require being a bit more tech-savvy.

Here's the most recent:

As you can see, those aforementioned "orphan penumbrae" seem to be meeting with different fates: the bottom positive one has been breaking apart as the large negative region has been growing, and even though you can still see it it's clearly getting weaker and smaller; the top negative one seems to have been "adopted" by that developing negative spot (I don't really know if that's how it actually works when it comes to the underlying field, but that's what it looks like, at least), and I'd say that spot and the positive one right next to it are forming a delta, since their penumbrae are right next to each other and combined into one as viewed on the intensitygram.

[MinYoongi]

12 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

 

and I'd say that spot and the positive one right next to it are forming a delta, since their penumbrae are right next to each other and combined into one as viewed on the intensitygram.

Do you mean the left ones? the blue and red meeting? thank you for the gif again! can i recreate the scripts somehow?

[Philalethes]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Do you mean the left ones? the blue and red meeting? thank you for the gif again! can i recreate the scripts somehow?

Yes, exactly. That region seems to be complexifying if you ask me.

And you're welcome; I was primarily making them for myself, because it was a hassle to constantly refresh for the latest image, zoom in on the region I wanted, try to find the exact same region in other image, and then frantically switch between the two tabs to see the comparison, but I'm glad someone else finds it useful too.

As for recreating the scripts, it's just a two-liner for downloading the images and two one-liners for cropping and making the gif respectively (hardly even a script, more of an alias in that sense), so that's not the issue, the issue would rather be running them, although that shouldn't take long to make possible whether you're on Windows or iOS (I'm on Linux, which I assume you're not using). I could provide you with more detailed instructions on how to do that via DM if you want, I guess we shouldn't use the thread for that.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Yes, exactly. That region seems to be complexifying if you ask me.

And you're welcome; I was primarily making them for myself, because it was a hassle to constantly refresh for the latest image, zoom in on the region I wanted, try to find the exact same region in other image, and then frantically switch between the two tabs to see the comparison, but I'm glad someone else finds it useful too.

As for recreating the scripts, it's just a two-liner for downloading the images and two one-liners for cropping and making the gif respectively (hardly even a script, more of an alias in that sense), so that's not the issue, the issue would rather be running them, although that shouldn't take long to make possible whether you're on Windows or iOS (I'm on Linux, which I assume you're not using). I could provide you with more detailed instructions on how to do that via DM if you want, I guess we shouldn't use the thread for that.

I'll dm you later regarding that topic!

 

And you made me chuckle, the switching tab thing is exactly my modus operandi.  

 

I dont know if that can be called a delta yet.. @Orneno opinion?  youre the delta sniffer