AR13089

[MinYoongi]

37 minutes ago, Strom said:

Seems like it has been strengthening since yesterday.  Are these circled areas deltas?

 

It has rather weakened/shrunk a bit

No you need to look on the intensigram if there are sunspots

[Philalethes]

43 minutes ago, Strom said:

Seems like it has been strengthening since yesterday.  Are these circled areas deltas?

 

The larger regions of each polarity seem to have expanded a bit, but it looks like the delta has gotten weaker. Highlighted below:

The regions you've highlighted are definitely not deltas. The top right one is only a penumbra on the i-gram, and not positioned well to potentially develop into a delta, while the small spots to the left are barely visible on the m-gram, let alone on the i-gram.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos

[mozy]

27 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

The larger regions of each polarity seem to have expanded a bit, but it looks like the delta has gotten weaker. Highlighted below:

The regions you've highlighted are definitely not deltas. The top right one is only a penumbra on the i-gram, and not positioned well to potentially develop into a delta, while the small spots to the left are barely visible on the m-gram, let alone on the i-gram.

I would've almost called the top right one a really small delta earlier but it deteriorated quite instantly & disappeared right after. 

The only delta we have is shrinking/gotten weaker unfortunately like you said, not like that delta has done anything so far anyways 🙄

[mozy]

New possible delta/deltas forming now.

[Philalethes]

6 hours ago, mozy said:

I would've almost called the top right one a really small delta earlier but it deteriorated quite instantly & disappeared right after.

I see, I didn't catch that. I guess it had disappeared when I looked already.

18 minutes ago, mozy said:

New possible delta/deltas forming now.

I see it, looks like a small delta for now, but a delta nonetheless. I assume you're referring to the same:

[mozy]

9 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I see it, looks like a small delta for now, but a delta nonetheless. I assume you're referring to the same:

Yeah ^^

[Philalethes]

8 minutes ago, mozy said:

Yeah ^^

Also, that top right region does seem to have a tiny little umbra of its own now, so I get what you mean. Maybe it could grow too, just seems like it's not in the most favorable position intuitively; stranger things have happened, though.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Also, that top right region does seem to have a tiny little umbra of its own now, so I get what you mean.

Where? 🥸

Ps: does the size of the delta matter? If yes, more than placement? The bigger one doesnt seem to be more active.

[Philalethes]

49 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Where? 🥸

Ps: does the size of the delta matter? If yes, more than placement? The bigger one doesnt seem to be more active.

This one:

As you can see, there's barely an umbra there, it wouldn't surprise me if it disappears. Strictly speaking I suppose there's no size requirement for a delta in the broadest sense, but there's always some judgment involved, and I'd say there are some "unspoken" criteria to it as well, such as intensity (it's already what's measured on the i-grams of course, but there's a gradient even within the umbrae that should probably also be taken into account), size and stability. For example, the other region underneath that one has now weakened and also only barely still has a couple of separated tiny umbrae.

If one wanted to make a more strict definition, I guess it would have to include a minimum size of a given intensity, or some overall summed intensity, maintained over a minimum period of time. 

[MinYoongi]

"Solar activity was low. Region 3089 (S22W20, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) grew
in area while becoming more magnetically complex."

 

Noaa.. are you drink? To me the region is losing complexity and also shrinking especially in penumbra? Am i wrong?

[MinYoongi]

it grew a little delta in the last few hours in the trailing portion.

[mozy]

The new growth in this region that started yesterday starting to look better now, if this keeps going we might have multiple deltas soon.

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, mozy said:

The new growth in this region that started yesterday starting to look better now, if this keeps going we might have multiple deltas soon.

In the Middle? 

8 minutes ago, mozy said:

The new growth in this region that started yesterday starting to look better now, if this keeps going we might have multiple deltas soon.

But isnt it a bit far west by now

[mozy]

5 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

In the Middle? 

But isnt it a bit far west by now

Yeah but just thinking of overall activity, might start seeing some flaring again from the region

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, mozy said:

Yeah but just thinking of overall activity, might start seeing some flaring again from the region

Yeah, the last big flare was the M7.

[MinYoongi]

"Region 3089 (S22W40, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the bulk of this periods C-class flare activity, and exhibited rapid growth in its intermediate spot area"

Is it Monday for Noaa again? Am I hallucinating the Delta? 🙃

[mozy]

27 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

"Region 3089 (S22W40, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced the bulk of this periods C-class flare activity, and exhibited rapid growth in its intermediate spot area"

Is it Monday for Noaa again? Am I hallucinating the Delta? 🙃

Lmao, they're unbelievable, truly.

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, mozy said:

Lmao, they're unbelievable, truly.

I agree with you. This is the second time.

Did it grew more deltas? Can you show me where?:)

[mozy]

28 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I agree with you. This is the second time.

Did it grew more deltas? Can you show me where?:)

As of now there's still only 1 small delta, but if the new growing area merge into the same penumbral area & keep growing then we're gonna have more.

Edited September 2, 2022 by mozy

[MinYoongi]

20 minutes ago, mozy said:

As of now there's still only 1 small delta, but if the new growing area merge into the same penumbral area & keep growing then we're gonna have more.

Is there any reason its suddenly flaring more then? If the deltas did not change?

[Solarflaretracker200]

This quiet region is now not so quiet...ok then

[mozy]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is there any reason its suddenly flaring more then? If the deltas did not change?

More spots & interaction with each other, don't need deltas for that

[AlbellaKutta]

Newbie to solar flares.  What, if anything, will this imply for a late September (equinox time) trip to Fairbanks for viewing the northern lights ?

 

Thank you for your replies

[Sam Warfel]

36 minutes ago, AlbellaKutta said:

Newbie to solar flares.  What, if anything, will this imply for a late September (equinox time) trip to Fairbanks for viewing the northern lights ?

 

Thank you for your replies

Equinox time is usually good, as you seem to know. However, we can’t tell anything at all about specifics that far out. The earliest we can tell there might be strong aurora is if we see a CME launched, and that’s only 2-4 days before it arrives. If we see there’s a large sunspot that’s flaring a lot, we know a CME may be likely, but far from guaranteed. And because sunspots change so quickly, we can’t tell anything at all more than like a week in advance. So, right now the forecast for the equinox is “who knows, check back in no sooner than a week before”.

That being said, Fairbanks is perfectly under the Auroral Oval, and sees beautiful aurora very often. I’ve seen great pics from there the last few nights when the KP index was only 3 or 4, no massive CMEs or geomagnetic storms needed. I highly recommend checking out the Facebook group “Aurora Borealis Notifications”, they are centered in the Fairbanks area and post lots of photos whenever the aurora is active. This will help give you a feel for what to expect and how often the aurora comes out. I do think your odds are pretty good!

Good luck and happy hunting!

[AlbellaKutta]

2 hours ago, Orneno said:

Equinox time is usually good, as you seem to know. However, we can’t tell anything at all about specifics that far out. The earliest we can tell there might be strong aurora is if we see a CME launched, and that’s only 2-4 days before it arrives. If we see there’s a large sunspot that’s flaring a lot, we know a CME may be likely, but far from guaranteed. And because sunspots change so quickly, we can’t tell anything at all more than like a week in advance. So, right now the forecast for the equinox is “who knows, check back in no sooner than a week before”.

That being said, Fairbanks is perfectly under the Auroral Oval, and sees beautiful aurora very often. I’ve seen great pics from there the last few nights when the KP index was only 3 or 4, no massive CMEs or geomagnetic storms needed. I highly recommend checking out the Facebook group “Aurora Borealis Notifications”, they are centered in the Fairbanks area and post lots of photos whenever the aurora is active. This will help give you a feel for what to expect and how often the aurora comes out. I do think your odds are pretty good!

Good luck and happy hunting!

Thank you for your response.  Have made a cancelable air ticket reservation.  The 27 day Aurora forecast from https://www.gi.alaska.edu/monitors/aurora-forecast shows only KP of 2 around the equinox, but forecasts that far out are , as I understand a low conviction forecast; so hopefully we get lucky.