AR13089

[Solarflaretracker200]

M class in progress 

[Philalethes]

There's activity alright, M2.1 just now.

19 minutes ago, Solarflaretracker200 said:

M class in progress 

Beat me to it, oops.

Well, that's exciting at least.

1 hour ago, Newbie said:

P.B. which active region does this belong to? I agree with your assessment. 

 

That would be 3089. I think I'll stick to just discussing that for now, even though OP was originally referring to 3088 when they made the thread. 3088 is on its way out anyway, and the title says 3089 after all.

On a different note, do you think it's possible for some of the HSS from the CH to hit Earth, or would it have to be closer to the equator? CMEs can generally blast off in many directions, but HSS seems to be more directional. You also mentioned earlier that the sunspots right underneath it would likely be dampening the streaming, so that would be another factor making it less likely to have significant impact.

[CalleB]

18 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

There's activity alright, M2.1 just now.

Beat me to it, oops.

Well, that's exciting at least.

That would be 3089. I think I'll stick to just discussing that for now, even though OP was originally referring to 3088 when they made the thread. 3088 is on its way out anyway, and the title says 3089 after all.

On a different note, do you think it's possible for some of the HSS from the CH to hit Earth, or would it have to be closer to the equator? CMEs can generally blast off in many directions, but HSS seems to be more directional. You also mentioned earlier that the sunspots right underneath it would likely be dampening the streaming, so that would be another factor making it less likely to have significant impact.

The CH HSS will be geoeffective  

[Newbie]

14 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

There's activity alright, M2.1 just now.

Beat me to it, oops.

Well, that's exciting at least.

That would be 3089. I think I'll stick to just discussing that for now, even though OP was originally referring to 3088 when they made the thread. 3088 is on its way out anyway, and the title says 3089 after all.

On a different note, do you think it's possible for some of the HSS from the CH to hit Earth, or would it have to be closer to the equator? CMEs can generally blast off in many directions, but HSS seems to be more directional. You also mentioned earlier that the sunspots right underneath it would likely be dampening the streaming, so that would be another factor making it less likely to have significant impact.

Hello P.B.

The 2.1 flare came from AR3089.

I believe it is still predicted to have an impact, this from SWPC latest:

.Forecast... Mostly nominal, background conditions are expected 26 Aug. Minor enhancements to the solar wind are possible on 27-28 Aug with -CH influences possible. 

N.

 

[Philalethes]

52 minutes ago, CalleB said:

The CH HSS will be geoeffective  

I see; is there an easy way to determine this?

48 minutes ago, Newbie said:

The 2.1 flare came from AR3089.

I believe it is still predicted to have an impact, this from SWPC latest:

.Forecast... Mostly nominal, background conditions are expected 26 Aug. Minor enhancements to the solar wind are possible on 27-28 Aug with -CH influences possible.

Yep, it's 3089 indeed, that's what I meant.

And I see; like I asked the other poster above, is there any easy way to determine roughly where the HSS is headed?

I was also wondering due to the obliquity of Sol to the ecliptic, as we're roughly at what would correspond to a winter solstice were the roles of Earth and Sol reversed, i.e. as parts of Sol rotate as seen from Earth, they will appear to move further away from the equator as seen from Earth as they approach the null meridian, so that the CH will be further from that equatorial line at that point.

PS:

This is starting to look interesting; M7.2 just now from 3089, a long one too (it's been sustained over M3 for half an hour by the time of writing).

Edited August 26, 2022 by Philalethes Bythos
clarification to distinguish between the actual Solar equator and the equator as seen from Earth

[MinYoongi]

Both regions tag teaming looking at SDO and Suvi

[Newbie]

1 hour ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

And I see; like I asked the other poster above, is there any easy way to determine roughly where the HSS is headed?

I was also wondering due to the obliquity of Sol to the ecliptic, as we're roughly at what would correspond to a winter solstice were the roles of Earth and Sol reversed, i.e. as parts of Sol rotate as seen from Earth, they will appear to move further away from the equator as seen from Earth as they approach the null meridian, so that the CH will be further from that equatorial line at that point.

PS:

This is starting to look interesting; M7.2 just now from 3089, a long one too (it's been sustained over M3 for half an hour by the time of writing).

Wow I hadn't seen it till your PS. It's developing very nicely, thanks. 

WRT Coronal Holes, they are geo-effective when they form close to the Sun's equator. The solar wind travels in a spiral formation due to rotation of the Sun. The fastest CHHSS's emanate from the centre of the CH. The fact there is an AR in the middle of the CH would impact the solar wind speed. As solar max. is approached CH's appear closer and closer to the poles.

N.

 

[Solarflaretracker200]

Dang M7 right now

[MinYoongi]

@Newbie an AR inside a CH is called an Anemone AR ! Funfact of the day

[Newbie]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

@Newbie an AR inside a CH is called an Anemone AR ! Funfact of the day

Awesome fun fact Min. It's up there with Cannibal CME IMHO lol!

Goodnight it's 00:12 in Australia.

[FairyG]

To address where to find the comments about the "special sunspot"

I like to watch smashomash everyday for really unbias factual spaceweather. Then come to these boards. He is on YouTube and Patreon and has a website. His calming voice is just the right pace for my attention span and since I changed watching spaceweather over regular news, my overall health and well being has improved!

Replacing news with spaceweather has been life changing. Can't lie about the sun!

He has a funny sense of humor and occasionally throws in seismic and volcano news yet remains firm they are not related to spaceweather.

Edited August 26, 2022 by FairyG

[Philalethes]

21 minutes ago, FairyG said:

Replacing news with spaceweather has been life changing. Can't lie about the sun!

Amen.

[WildWill]

10 hours ago, shemadebeans said:

is this dangerous

No. & welcome to the forum!

-WnA

[MinYoongi]

I will attach pics later, but after the M7 flare 3089 lost its middle delta but after 30 it reappeared. Was cool to see, ive seen spots lose their deltas after big flares but not regrow it. 

[3gMike]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

@Newbie an AR inside a CH is called an Anemone AR ! Funfact of the day

If you look at Fig1 (on page 2) in this document you will see how it came to be named.

https://www.aanda.org/articles/aa/pdf/2020/10/aa38927-20.pdf

[MinYoongi]

I wanted to ask if the region currently has deltas and if yes, where. this region is tricky for me due to high mixing.

[Philalethes]

20 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I wanted to ask if the region currently has deltas and if yes, where. this region is tricky for me due to high mixing.

I would say yes, because the negative region in the middle there has a clear umbra, and is lodged within the penumbrae of the surrounding positive regions:

It does however look like the surrounding positive regions did weaken a bit after the flaring, but it seems pretty clear that both the positive and negative umbrae have surrounding penumbrae that they "share" with each other.

[Bedreamon]

Boy am I glad I'm not watching those YouTube channels anymore, otherwise I'd be getting anxious over the M7 flare.

Is there any estimate as to when there'll be ENLIL data on it?

[MinYoongi]

10 minutes ago, Bedreamon said:

Boy am I glad I'm not watching those YouTube channels anymore, otherwise I'd be getting anxious over the M7 flare.

Is there any estimate as to when there'll be ENLIL data on it?

There was no Ejecta associated with the M Events from 3089. Only from 3088 and yes, Enlil was updated. Maybe a glancing blow, but dont expect anything from it.

 

40 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I would say yes, because the negative region in the middle there has a clear umbra, and is lodged within the penumbrae of the surrounding positive regions:

It does however look like the surrounding positive regions did weaken a bit after the flaring, but it seems pretty clear that both the positive and negative umbrae have surrounding penumbrae that they "share" with each other.

Yeah, if you look at the SDO Movies it dissapeared for like 30 mins after the M7 flare and then came back. Fascinating stuff.

Oh, forgot, for you @Bedreamon : 

 

[MinYoongi]

Can someone tell me why the two big regions have 1% X-Class Chance but overall 10% Chance?

[Bry]

19 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

I think what @WildWill meant was that the magnetic configuration is stacked on top of eachother instead of besides each other, but i have not seen anything anywhere saying that those regions flare more.. so im hoping to find some info/context  

I thought this explained why having a stacked configuration orientation for the poles of an active region move at different speeds affects turbulence and flare activity more so than horizontally oriented pole regions of a sunspot.

6 hours ago, CalleB said:

The CH HSS will be geoeffective  

** isn’t this coronal hole in the Southern Hemisphere? I thought we would be more effected by coronal holes in the northern hemisphere.

 

6 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I see; is there an easy way to determine this?

** this is from a post I made on June 28th,2022 on Patrick’s Placing Sunspots June 7th topic:

“The Sun's rotation axis is tilted by about 7.25 degrees from the axis of the Earth's orbit so we see more of the Sun's north pole in September of each year and more of its south pole in March.Jan 22, 2013”

from: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/solar-rotation.html”

I figured since we are supposed to see more of the northern hemisphere of the sun during September equinox, and Southern Hemisphere in March equinox, due to our orbital tilt with relation to the sun....that would mean coronal hole high wind speed streams in the northern hemisphere would be most geoeffective to me... since the earths orbit inclination around this time makes us north of the suns equator.

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Can someone tell me why the two big regions have 1% X-Class Chance but overall 10% Chance?

**Maybe because of 3088’s stacked configuration being more active and 3089 having and M7 flare already and still has the solar disc to cross there is a higher chance of x flare potential total 10%, but only 1% for each active region because it’s in the Southern Hemisphere?

Im basing this off the fact that the earth is oriented above the eclipse of the sun in September. I figure sunspots in the Southern Hemisphere should be less geoeffective, but the northern ones more so...

I think 3gmike mentioned deflection of sunspot eruptions being effected by coronal holes and other active regions as well which probably plays apart more in geoeffectivity than total flare potential.

thanks for keeping the sunspot regions and flares associated organized!

[Philalethes]

3 minutes ago, Bry said:

** this is from a post I made on June 28th,2022 on Patrick’s Placing Sunspots June 7th topic:

“The Sun's rotation axis is tilted by about 7.25 degrees from the axis of the Earth's orbit so we see more of the Sun's north pole in September of each year and more of its south pole in March.Jan 22, 2013”

from: https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/sunearth/science/solar-rotation.html”

I figured since we are supposed to see more of the northern hemisphere of the sun during September equinox, and Southern Hemisphere in March equinox, due to our orbital tilt with relation to the sun....that would mean coronal hole high wind speed streams in the northern hemisphere would be most geoeffective to me... since the earths orbit inclination around this time makes us north of the suns equator.

Yes, that was precisely the point I made a few paragraphs under that:

7 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I was also wondering due to the obliquity of Sol to the ecliptic, as we're roughly at what would correspond to a winter solstice were the roles of Earth and Sol reversed, i.e. as parts of Sol rotate as seen from Earth, they will appear to move further away from the equator as seen from Earth as they approach the null meridian, so that the CH will be further from that equatorial line at that point.

That being said, if the hole is still close enough to the equator while it passes through the null meridian, then it would naturally still hit us, even if it's in the southern hemisphere.

As for 3089, now it looks like the delta is completely gone, almost looks like it managed to merge with the bigger negative group on the right.

[MinYoongi]

26 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

 

As for 3089, now it looks like the delta is completely gone, almost looks like it managed to merge with the bigger negative group on the right.

Is it the regions only delta? 

[Philalethes]

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Is it the regions only delta? 

Looks like it to me, at least I can't see any other. Maybe the large positive penumbral area to the bottom right near the negative spots could develop into it, but for now it seems like the tension is gone.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Looks like it to me, at least I can't see any other. Maybe the large positive penumbral area to the bottom right near the negative spots could develop into it, but for now it seems like the tension is gone.

On Suvi it looks to be kind off flare-y still. i think 3088 is contributing most to the high Background flux then?