MinYoongi Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: We do have a full halo, but CMEs in the northeast side of the coronagraph imagery and a CH HSS makes that side difficult to see exactly what we have. Solarham said the bulk goes south, that roughly agrees with what you said i think. so bulk miss, glancing shock hit? 2 minutes ago, arjemma said: I just love how clear you can see the post eruption arcades in SDO and that it's so long. It's not everyday we get such clear pictures of the eruption structures. oh, yes! You should look at it in 131A, my favorite wavelength 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Solarham said the bulk goes south, that roughly agrees with what you said i think. so bulk miss, glancing shock hit? It may be somewhat similar to the filament eruption on the 20th. CH HSS can dull CMEs quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said: It may be somewhat similar to the filament eruption on the 20th. CH HSS can dull CMEs quite a bit. So a more direct hit likely? Wonder if that could amplify the current cmes to kp8. Edited January 22 by Fishaxolotl Typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: It may be somewhat similar to the filament eruption on the 20th. CH HSS can dull CMEs quite a bit. True about the CH HSS, they can "push" them aside or something like that. but to me (and solarham apparently) the main bulk seems to go south, do you really think G2 is possible with this one? on a side note, i love when coronal holes interact with cmes, its rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: So a more direct hit likely? Wonder if that could amplify the current cmes to kp8. I'll need about 2 more hours of imagery before I can calculate a forecast for this one. G4 might be a bit much. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 52 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: I'll need about 2 more hours of imagery before I can calculate a forecast for this one. G4 might be a bit much. My early guesstimate is G2 is probably best case. All of the bulk really looks to be southward. Would love to be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 33 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: My early guesstimate is G2 is probably best case. All of the bulk really looks to be southward. Would love to be wrong though. Most recent Nasa run. I dont know if its for this cme though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Most recent Nasa run. I dont know if its for this cme though? Looks a bit weak for such an incredible eruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Looks a bit weak for such an incredible eruption i dont know if its this cme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 34 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Most recent Nasa run. I dont know if its for this cme though? Looks very much like it is; especially when you look at the middle animation showing the north-south distribution. 9 minutes ago, Fishaxolotl said: Looks a bit weak for such an incredible eruption Well, it looked spectacular, but didn't seem like it was all that fast, filament eruptions generally aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marcel de Bont Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 36 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei: Most recent Nasa run. I dont know if its for this cme though? I think it is you need to look at the north-south cutout view... but I don't think it will hit Earth. Not a fan of these NASA models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishaxolotl Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Looks very much like it is; especially when you look at the middle animation showing the north-south distribution. Well, it looked spectacular, but didn't seem like it was all that fast, filament eruptions generally aren't. Always wondered why people here hated on filaments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 8 minutes ago, Marcel de Bont said: I think it is you need to look at the north-south cutout view... but I don't think it will hit Earth. Not a fan of these NASA models. 10 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Looks very much like it is; especially when you look at the middle animation showing the north-south distribution. Well, it looked spectacular, but didn't seem like it was all that fast, filament eruptions generally aren't. yes. i checked donki. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) On second thought, maybe that NASA model is for this most recent filament CME. Seems fast for them though. Southern weighted component of the CME definitely lines up though. Edited January 22 by cgrant26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Is the nasa model bad or unreliable right now Because if something like that happened it might be g3-g4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 22 Author Share Posted January 22 28 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: On second thought, maybe that NASA model is for this most recent filament CME. Seems fast for them though. Southern weighted component of the CME definitely lines up though. i posted the donki message with it. its the big filament eruption, the time fits. (mentioned time, not time of run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 It says on spaceweatherlive.com potential partial halo with. The most recent filament eruption. Angular width 196 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 18 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: It says on spaceweatherlive.com potential partial halo with. The most recent filament eruption. Angular width 196 That is computer generated from a program called Cactus. The program takes the LASCO images and estimates how wide it is based on the difference in the images. Sometimes the program calculates it to be too wide and sometimes too thin. The main of that CME is going to miss earth. There is a small chance for a glancing blow but I would say that is a rather small chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ok thanks so don’t worry its just going to be a g2 or maybe g3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Ok thanks so don’t worry its just going to be a g2 or maybe g3 Ehm what do you base your G2 or G3 forecast on? Also why would we worry if it was a G4? Only thing we have to worry about during a G4 is to have the batteries to our cameras charged. Edited January 22 by arjemma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Ok sorry I was just guessing I don’t record the aruoras it might effect power and technology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Just now, Nathan Majors said: Ok sorry I was just guessing I don’t record the aruoras it might effect power and technology Oh okay. I have seen that you have been worried about this in several posts and you really should listen when people in here tell you not to worry. It feels like you are following some fear mongering accounts on social media? Not even a regular G5 would be a threat to our technology, we would have to have a G5+ but not even that would do too much damage. Our power grids have survived the Halloween storms with just minor downtime. I suggest you unfollow these accounts that you are following. May I ask if you follow someone called Ben Davidson? In that case I understand your fear, he is trying to spread fear that isn't based in science. The best thing for you to do right now is to read a bunch of scientific papers on this and make your own conclusions based on those, instead of listening to people on social media. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nathan Majors Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Thank you that helped To be fair I should probably get off twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parabolic Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 26 minutes ago, Nathan Majors said: Thank you that helped To be fair I should probably get off twitter We would have to experience a geomagnetic storm of G4 - G5 for several days for it to have a major impact on power grids or create dangerous GIC's (geomagnetic induced currents). The magnetic orientation of the plasma in the CME is also crucial to its geo-effectiveness. Generally, if Bz is northward it becomes less effective and if it sustains a southernly direction it becomes more effective. That being said, I would recommend watching Dr. Tamitha Skov on YouTube and watch the A Course playlist. It will better explain this topic. I hope that helps 🙂 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) This one is tougher with not being able to see everything, other CMEs and HSSs blocking and dulling the northeast part of the halo. It does look to be a slower CME. Given the velocities are high enough, I'd expect an arrival at some point on the 25th UTC. G1 would probably only be possible with an arrival on the early end. Edited January 22 by Jesterface23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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