Is AR2891 active?

[Space pro]

1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

This is a school example why you sometimes don’t need an X-class flare for a very nice CME. This event was a very long duration event that lasted more than 5 hours and thus generates a great CME. It’s a nice full halo CME which will likely arrive on Thursday but let’s await final imagery of LASCO and see the first predictions. 

Yep you also explained me this thing.

 

2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

This is a school example why you sometimes don’t need an X-class flare for a very nice CME. This event was a very long duration event that lasted more than 5 hours and thus generates a great CME. It’s a nice full halo CME which will likely arrive on Thursday but let’s await final imagery of LASCO and see the first predictions. 

 

What will be the Kp index when the CME hits?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

1 uur terug, Space pro zei:

 

What will be the Kp index when the CME hits?

Likely somewhere in the late hours of November 4th but have some patience as the CME is yet to be modelled by the forecasters before making predictions.

[Jesterface23]

I'm thinking the end of the 4th as well. The shape of the CME isn't tricking me this time. It looks like another side impact or in between, so close to being a direct hit.

[MinYoongi]

4 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

This is a school example why you sometimes don’t need an X-class flare for a very nice CME. This event was a very long duration event that lasted more than 5 hours and thus generates a great CME. It’s a nice full halo CME which will likely arrive on Thursday but let’s await final imagery of LASCO and see the first predictions. 

 

Lasco data is now available! Stereo-A didnt backfill yet. 

[Tomasz Mielec]

Looks like G3 or even G4, we will see NOAA predictions.

[Tillson]

Welp, here comes round two!

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

Looks like G3 or even G4, we will see NOAA 

What do you fix your prediction on? If you got some knowledge, please let me know im always eager to learn

[Tomasz Mielec]

4 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

What do you fix your prediction on? If you got some knowledge, please let me know im always eager to learn

Now im only looking how big was CME and how much the amount of plasa was ejected. In this CME we see better then last one how much is going to Earth position.

 

Edited November 2, 2021 by Tomasz Mielec

[Space pro]

24 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

Looks like G3 or even G4, we will see NOAA predictions.

Let's hope your predications come true, fingers cross🤞🤞

[Sam Warfel]

Looking forward to the impact predictions!

Just now, Space pro said:

Let's hope your predications come true, fingers cross🤞🤞

Wow wouldn’t that be amazing, a chance for redemption from our disappointment of an X1

[Space pro]

3 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Looking forward to the impact predictions!

Wow wouldn’t that be amazing, a chance for redemption from our disappointment of an X1

Yes that would be amazing😄😄

Edited November 2, 2021 by Space pro

[Sam Warfel]

(Meant to quote the above post that says “looks like G3”

[MinYoongi]

My fingers are crossed for you all and especially for you @Orneno! 

1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said:

I'm thinking the end of the 4th as well. The shape of the CME isn't tricking me this time. It looks like another side impact or in between, so close to being a direct hit.

Can u elaborate?:) i think im missunderstanding it. 

[Sam Warfel]

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

 

My fingers are crossed for you all and especially for you @Orneno! 

 

Thanks MinYoongi 😂

Even when stuff misses, I’m loving all the activity! It beats when I first started hoping for Auroras last year and the sun was fast asleep and not doing a thing. 

[MinYoongi]

12 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Thanks MinYoongi 😂

Even when stuff misses, I’m loving all the activity! It beats when I first started hoping for Auroras last year and the sun was fast asleep and not doing a thing. 

Yes, i remember i started my spaceweather journey in mid 2019. Boy oh boy, it was like 4 Sunspots in that year and not a single flare. 🤔😂

[Sam Warfel]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Yes, i remember i started my spaceweather journey in mid 2019. Boy oh boy, it was like 4 Sunspots in that year and not a single flare. 🤔😂

4 spots and no flares? Pretty… quiet 😆

Here’s to Solar Cycle 25 🍻

[Jesterface23]

30 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Can u elaborate?:) i think im missunderstanding it. 

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lnyvfd0186

This is my current basic leading view of some CMEs. The leading black line would be a direct hit and the following black lines would be a side impact.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/lnyvfd0186

This is my current basic leading view of some CMEs. The leading black line would be a direct hit and the following black lines would be a side impact.

Ah, thank you! And what do you think about the long duration flare related CME? 🥰

Btw: stereo backfilled!

[Jesterface23]

6 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Ah, thank you! And what do you think about the long duration flare related CME?

All I can say is hopefully the CME can rival the velocities of the current CH HSS.

[Space pro]

1 hour ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

Looks like G3 or even G4, we will see NOAA predictions.

Spaceweather.com wrote that the CME could spark G2 geomagnetic storm. Read this: 

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 5th. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2.

Just now, Space pro said:

Spaceweather.com wrote that the CME could spark G2 geomagnetic storm. Read this: 

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 5th. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2.

I hope this turns wrong🤞🤞

[Sam Warfel]

8 minutes ago, Space pro said:

Spaceweather.com wrote that the CME could spark G2 geomagnetic storm. Read this: 

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 5th. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2.

I hope this turns wrong🤞🤞

They did say that the unknown is possible glancing blow CMEs on the 4th-ish, if these do happen and are strong they could set the stage for stronger storms when the halo CME arrives!

[Space pro]

6 minutes ago, Orneno said:

They did say that the unknown is possible glancing blow CMEs on the 4th-ish, if these do happen and are strong they could set the stage for stronger storms when the halo CME arrives!

Thanks I read half🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[Tomasz Mielec]

Its look nice

[Space pro]

4 minutes ago, Tomasz Mielec said:

Its look nice

Thanks

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Space pro said:

Spaceweather.com wrote that the CME could spark G2 geomagnetic storm. Read this: 

Estimated time of arrival: Nov. 5th. The impact could spark geomagnetic storms as strong as category G2.

I hope this turns wrong🤞🤞

Where did they say this? I cant find it 😂