Is AR2891 active?

[Sam Warfel]

What's the status of sunspot group AR2891?  I have seen some talk about it being complicated, maybe delta-class, and it's had some active flaring in the past.
However, SLW just has it classed as Beta.
Is there a chance of activity and flaring from this spot?

Thanks,
~Learning more about sunspots
 

[Vancanneyt Sander]

First of all, the magnetic classification on SWL comes from SWPC. We do our own analysis as well but apart from the “official” classification. If we would do this site/app as a job we could do our own classifications instead of using the official but that isn’t the case 😉

when looking at 2891 there is one delta spot. Making it beta-delta. Not B-G-D because it’s easy to draw a line between the two polarities. So it’s good for C-class activity but nothing more (slight chance for an impulsive M due to the delta but it isn’t strong)

[Sam Warfel]

3 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

First of all, the magnetic classification on SWL comes from SWPC. We do our own analysis as well but apart from the “official” classification. If we would do this site/app as a job we could do our own classifications instead of using the official but that isn’t the case 😉

when looking at 2891 there is one delta spot. Making it beta-delta. Not B-G-D because it’s easy to draw a line between the two polarities. So it’s good for C-class activity but nothing more (slight chance for an impulsive M due to the delta but it isn’t strong)

Thanks!

[TheHeroOfTime]

7 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

First of all, the magnetic classification on SWL comes from SWPC. We do our own analysis as well but apart from the “official” classification. If we would do this site/app as a job we could do our own classifications instead of using the official but that isn’t the case 😉

when looking at 2891 there is one delta spot. Making it beta-delta. Not B-G-D because it’s easy to draw a line between the two polarities. So it’s good for C-class activity but nothing more (slight chance for an impulsive M due to the delta but it isn’t strong)

When you say "easy to draw a line between the two polarities" what exactly do you mean? Do you think you could physically draw some lines on these screenshots that would help me understand what is magnetically going on?

[farm24]

9 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

First of all, the magnetic classification on SWL comes from SWPC. We do our own analysis as well but apart from the “official” classification. If we would do this site/app as a job we could do our own classifications instead of using the official but that isn’t the case 😉

when looking at 2891 there is one delta spot. Making it beta-delta. Not B-G-D because it’s easy to draw a line between the two polarities. So it’s good for C-class activity but nothing more (slight chance for an impulsive M due to the delta but it isn’t strong)

How rare are beta deltas I never seen one

[Sam Warfel]

5 minutes ago, farm24 said:

How rare are beta deltas I never seen one

Yeah neither have I, but I only started looking a year ago during the minimum.  I bet we'll see some as we near maximum in the future!
Idk how common they are then though.

[abc]

but now there is a long duration M Besides, beat delta is not that rare

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, abc said:

but now there is a long duration M Besides, beat delta is not that rare

The M class Flare is from Region 2887!

[Sam Warfel]

2 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

The M class Flare is from Region 2887!

And it seems to have had a CME to boot.  Probably not Earth-directed since the sunspot is getting pretty far towards the limb, but still interesting.

[MinYoongi]

8 hours ago, Orneno said:

And it seems to have had a CME to boot.  Probably not Earth-directed since the sunspot is getting pretty far towards the limb, but still interesting.

 

"A CME associated with the M1 flare was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 01/0200 UTC. The bulk of ejecta appears to be
directed south and west of the Sun-Earth line, however, initial
estimates suggest an Earth-directed component is likely. Further
analysis of this event is underway."

Noaa said in their Forecast   @Vancanneyt Sander How possible do you think is an earth impact? You guys tweeted its not earth directed. If it turns out to be, would it be only a glancing blow?

[Sam Warfel]

3 hours ago, MinYoongi said:

 

"A CME associated with the M1 flare was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 01/0200 UTC. The bulk of ejecta appears to be
directed south and west of the Sun-Earth line, however, initial
estimates suggest an Earth-directed component is likely. Further
analysis of this event is underway."

Noaa said in their Forecast   @Vancanneyt Sander How possible do you think is an earth impact? You guys tweeted its not earth directed. If it turns out to be, would it be only a glancing blow?

As they’ve said since (check SWL news) a glancing blow is possible/expected on Nov 4. However, this would be KP5 at the most, nothing much outside of the Arctic Circle. 

[Sam Warfel]

Looks like this particular spot may have just given an M class flare!

[Isatsuki San]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Looks like this particular spot may have just given an M class flare!

I confirm, 2891 is erupting right now, it seems that for now it is a m

[Sam Warfel]

3 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

I confirm, 2891 is erupting right now, it seems that for now it is a m

yeah but it may get stronger!  It's center disk, a CME would be nice.

Probably not though, it doesn't have the right radio emissions afik...

[Isatsuki San]

3 minutes ago, Orneno said:

sí, ¡pero puede volverse más fuerte! Es el disco central, un CME estaría bien.

Probablemente no, sin embargo, no tiene las emisiones de radio adecuadas afik ...

Although it seems that 2891 became beta-gamma-delta although it seems its sweet spots or delta point, it won't cause so much maybe in the next day another m or one m almost reached x?

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, Isatsuki San said:

Although it seems that 2891 became beta-gamma-delta although it seems its sweet spots or delta point, it won't cause so much maybe in the next day another m or one m almost reached x?

I'm hoping we get some action out of it before it goes off the western limb

[Isatsuki San]

4 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Espero que saquemos algo de acción antes de que se salga de la rama occidental.

if we wait, and do not take my words, as true, it can be said that this in the first solar cycle that I see it, so I can my mistake

[Drax Spacex]

M1.72 flare GOES-16 SUVI 131

There should be coronagraph imagery in a few hours from LASCO and Stereo A to show the direction and strength of any associated CME.

Edited November 2, 2021 by Drax Spacex
waiting 4 coronagraph

[Sam Warfel]

20 minutes ago, Drax Spacex said:

M1.72 flare GOES-16 SUVI 131

There should be coronagraph imagery in a few hours from LASCO and Stereo A to show the direction and strength of any associated CME.

Guess I'll find out when I get up tomorrow!

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

yeah but it may get stronger!  It's center disk, a CME would be nice.

Probably not though, it doesn't have the right radio emissions afik...

Oh, i misunderstood you then. I thought it exhibited the right Sweeps.

Coronal Dimming looks promising for a CME though

[Sam Warfel]

25 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Oh, i misunderstood you then. I thought it exhibited the right Sweeps.

Coronal Dimming looks promising for a CME though

What's coronal dimming?

[MinYoongi]

1 hour ago, Orneno said:

What's coronal dimming?

Hard to describe! You actually see where material is being blown away! We just need Lasco Images now

[Vancanneyt Sander]

4 uren geleden, Orneno zei:

What's coronal dimming?

Simple said: the dimming of the solar corona during a solar flare. So when an eruptive event occurs, the corona gets a bit dimmer and is best seen in difference movies of the flare. If the dimming is strong, it was a very eruptive event.

and this event was (because it was a very long duration event) very eruptive, here is the diff

Op 1/11/2021 om 01:17, TheHeroOfTime zei:

When you say "easy to draw a line between the two polarities" what exactly do you mean? Do you think you could physically draw some lines on these screenshots that would help me understand what is magnetically going on?

The current state of the region is Beta, so it's easy to draw a line between the regions spot polarities: So left is red, right is blue and it's easy to draw that line.

[MinYoongi]

2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Simple said: the dimming of the solar corona during a solar flare. So when an eruptive event occurs, the corona gets a bit dimmer and is best seen in difference movies of the flare. If the dimming is strong, it was a very eruptive event.

and this event was (because it was a very long duration event) very eruptive, here is the diff

The current state of the region is Beta, so it's easy to draw a line between the regions spot polarities: So left is red, right is blue and it's easy to draw that line.

Are you excited?

[Vancanneyt Sander]

5 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Are you excited?

This is a school example why you sometimes don’t need an X-class flare for a very nice CME. This event was a very long duration event that lasted more than 5 hours and thus generates a great CME. It’s a nice full halo CME which will likely arrive on Thursday but let’s await final imagery of LASCO and see the first predictions.