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I'm curious to see how this area will behave. Not that I want to get my hopes up for her, but I secretly hope she does something. Saturday's M3.4 eruption was already tempting (over a limb).
I want some real fireworks!

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  • Marcel de Bont
    Marcel de Bont

    This region is really interesting. Complex and facing Earth right now with a solid potential for a large flare. It has the ingredients for fireworks. Exciting!  

  • Philalethes
    Philalethes

    I just checked the unsigned flux for this region again (here), and it has increased to 8.3e+22 Mx now, which is closer to the upper part of the moderate range identified in the paper on magnetic cagin

  • no to anyone who is interested: I am alive and well after the incident in Moscow

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I can agree, I like this region too. It started with the M3.5 flare as you said and now the region looks bright and active in AIA 131. Only thing that keeps my expectations way lower is the limited compactness of intermediate spots - the region is very open. BUT - it is only near limb now, it has plenty of time to possibly develop and organize. Already classified as Beta-Gamma, so not the worst case scenario. :)1000058078.thumb.jpg.6ca0cafc0616085d12fd23006a5ec146.jpg

Edited by MeteoLatvia
Typo

2 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

I can agree, I like this region too. It started with the M3.5 flare as you said and now the region looks bright and active in AIA 131. Only thing that keeps my expectations way lower is the limited compactness of intermediate spots - the region is very open. BUT - it is only near limb now, it has plenty of time to possibly develop and organize. Already classified as Beta-Gamma, so not the worst case scenario. :)1000058078.thumb.jpg.6ca0cafc0616085d12fd23006a5ec146.jpg

Looks like you identified it as its currently being updated by SWPC too I was going to reply to ya to wait 15 minutes haha.  An M1 is being credited to it already also. Probably a delta in the mess somewhere if it hasn’t been blown to smithereens yet……

Decent flare ongoing, M3.9 at the time of writing this

1 minute ago, mozy said:

Decent flare ongoing, M3.9 at the time of writing this

I wonder where the complexity for this strength of flare is coming from again. I guess the Magnetogram is foreshortened again?

Just now, MinYoongi said:

I wonder where the complexity for this strength of flare is coming from again. I guess the Magnetogram is foreshortened again?

It has a clear delta, possibly 2.

Just now, mozy said:

It has a clear delta, possibly 2.

I only see the one in the Middle of the region, could not identify the 2nd yet. :D 

Comparing Imagery from 1h ago, the region seemed to slightly "decay" or atleast the Delta looked to be "less", so i did not expect an M6 Flare. Surprise Surprise. :D 

Just now, MinYoongi said:

I only see the one in the Middle of the region, could not identify the 2nd yet. :D 

Comparing Imagery from 1h ago, the region seemed to slightly "decay" or atleast the Delta looked to be "less", so i did not expect an M6 Flare. Surprise Surprise. :D 

Yup the middle one is obvious, second one is vague since it's still a bit too close to the limb, I can't really say that the region is decaying,  rather growing, although slow.

7 minutes ago, mozy said:

Yup the middle one is obvious, second one is vague since it's still a bit too close to the limb, I can't really say that the region is decaying,  rather growing, although slow.

Growth phase? Nice. So the White Stuff around it, i think its called faculae, is not a herald of decay like in old Region 3590 but the other way around perhaps? 

 

https://gyazo.com/426920c1f2913465715de39e00e4ed41

 

Here a video of what i mean, just a very very minor change in the Red Middle Sunspot. 

Did this just produce an M6.7? I've only been following Space weather for a couple of years and never commented before but the region looks complex to me

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57 minutes ago, MeteoLatvia said:

M6.4 flare now! Looks impulsive, but still, at least some activity. :)

Slow, Slow AR 3615! Save something good for next week, yeah!:)

3 uren geleden, Nobody zei:

Did this just produce an M6.7? I've only been following Space weather for a couple of years and never commented before but the region looks complex to me

Welcome to the forums. Yes it did. I merged your post with the existing thread for sunspot region 3615. Be sure to double check if you are posting in the right forum next time. Thanks!

2 uren geleden, Misaka zei:

 

Looks beautiful 🙂 (An Earth-directed CME this time please. Thank you)

 

Impulsive flare and doesn't look eruptive but promising it is producing nice M-class activity!

2 hours ago, Marcel de Bont said:

Welcome to the forums. Yes it did. I merged your post with the existing thread for sunspot region 3615. Be sure to double check if you are posting in the right forum next time. Thanks!

Impulsive flare and doesn't look eruptive but promising it is producing nice M-class activity!

Can we rename the thread please?? It is not showing up on the recent activity list - at least for me - and should be named AR3615 🤷‍♂️

thank you!

 

apparently this topic is now in the wrong forum - not listing on the solar activity forum - ???

Edited by Justanerd

Is anyone seeing this topic?? 
another m-class flare with a near-simultaneous sympathetic connection to AR3614? There seems to be a synchronicity there…

Edited by Justanerd
Dyslexic ar #

Yes it just caused me some confusion too.   We have two active regions in opposite hemispheres both active!   Not as interesting as the other day when east and west Northern ARs spit out M flares but can be confusing. 

Anyway, it may be that a server is messed up but we probably shouldn’t merge the two.  I think @Jesterface23 merged the “ Train  Wreck” as I called the four Ars that refused to obey any hale or joy laws until they marched off the west limb, but both @Philalethes And me were pretty sure they were connected in some fashion.  It was quite an unusual event likely the leftovers from a huge event backside. 

Edited by hamateur 1953

I don't see a recently created topic about this region, so I assume it has been deleted?

 

Anyway - this region looks more and more promising as it slowly comes into Earth facing disc. Beta-Gamma already.

Screenshot-2024-03-19-1056202.thumb.jpg.28d9f7d39d7a5c1ae03e4f5858e5c884.jpg

 

Edited by MeteoLatvia

Something really wonky is going on.  Im gonna butt out until it gets fixed. @Justanerdand myself had the same thing happen earlier too.  3615 actually switched topics with. AR 3615  in my browser when I logged back in!  

Edited by hamateur 1953
Typo

4 hours ago, MeteoLatvia said:

I don't see a recently created topic about this region, so I assume it has been deleted?

 

Anyway - this region looks more and more promising as it slowly comes into Earth facing disc. Beta-Gamma already.

Screenshot-2024-03-19-1056202.thumb.jpg.28d9f7d39d7a5c1ae03e4f5858e5c884.jpg

 

Is the delta not present anymore that @mozy mentioned?

I just started to learn, how to recognize each magnetic classification, but what from I know already - I still see that there is that delta in the middle. The region overall is growing very slowly in my opinion, but at least it is not decaying. Already has produced 7 C-class, 1 M-class flare and still looks bright and active now in AIA 131. All I can say - we need to definitely keep an eye on it.

3615_HMIBC.jpg

14 uren geleden, Justanerd zei:

Can we rename the thread please?? It is not showing up on the recent activity list - at least for me - and should be named AR3615 🤷‍♂️

thank you!

 

apparently this topic is now in the wrong forum - not listing on the solar activity forum - ???

Sorry, I must have screwed up something while merging the two topics, the one in the App support forum was supposed to get merged and moved with the one in the solar activity forums of course. Should all be fixed now.

Impulsive M2 flare - no dimming or CME seen at this time 

Edited by Justanerd
Subjectivity

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