AR 13363

[Philalethes]

18 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

I guess meeting in the middle at 75 heh. The imagery is around different layers, so some is close and some further.

This is at least the flare prior, then the next engulfed it. The edge of 90, the next is 75 and so on.

But yeah, it can be hard to tell exactly where the source is when flares span a larger area. Larger flares will also tend to occur higher up into the corona from what I've seen, as reconnection seems to occur higher and higher while the ejecta lifts off, which can further skew where it seems to be coming from. I think an estimate around those parts is the best we can do for now indeed!

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Glancing Blow? or nothing? @Philalethes

From C2 it definitely looks like a possibility, it seems quite wide for being that close to the limb, but as usual it's hard to tell; a few more hours of C3 imagery will be great, although what there is by now does seem to indicate that it could glance us. For CMEs of considerable speed there's also deflection "eastward" to account for, which can further assist in bringing us a hit here. But as with all eruptions close to the limb it's really not easy to say anything certain.

12 minutes ago, Xavier Stanton said:

The C3 imagery makes me think it's not that fast. It actually looks slower than some of the other CMEs I've seen this year with the bulk of it moving southwest.

But then again, I'm not good with estimating CME speed.

A rudimentary estimate based on the C3 imagery seems to be something on the order of 4.5 Solar diameters covered in ~72 minutes, which yields a speed of 1450 km/s, but it's hard to say for sure given the uncertainty in the angles.

[Jesterface23]

I need about 3 more hours of C3 imagery and that should give me enough time too look back through my CME archive for this one.

[MinYoongi]

7 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

But yeah, it can be hard to tell exactly where the source is when flares span a larger area. Larger flares will also tend to occur higher up into the corona from what I've seen, as reconnection seems to occur higher and higher while the ejecta lifts off, which can further skew where it seems to be coming from. I think an estimate around those parts is the best we can do for now indeed!

From C2 it definitely looks like a possibility, it seems quite wide for being that close to the limb, but as usual it's hard to tell; a few more hours of C3 imagery will be great, although what there is by now does seem to indicate that it could glance us. For CMEs of considerable speed there's also deflection "eastward" to account for, which can further assist in bringing us a hit here. But as with all eruptions close to the limb it's really not easy to say anything certain.

A rudimentary estimate based on the C3 imagery seems to be something on the order of 4.5 Solar diameters covered in ~72 minutes, which yields a speed of 1450 km/s, but it's hard to say for sure given the uncertainty in the angles.

Okay because Vincent Ledvina said it’s probably not really earth directed but reading this thread it feels like it’s 100% gonna hit 😅 and yeah a few more frames of lasco never hurt I agree!

[Isatsuki San]

It looks like we're going to hit a level 2 radiation storm.

[MinYoongi]

17 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

It looks like we're going to hit a level 2 radiation storm.

How long do protons rise after a flare usually?

[Isatsuki San]

I wonder if epam is detected when it came out this day?

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

¿Durante cuánto tiempo suben los protones después de una llamarada?

It is my first s2 radiation storm event, for a moment it seemed that it was going to be its limit, but it is not known how long it will go up

[MinYoongi]

5 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

I wonder if epam is detected when it came out this day?

It is my first s2 radiation storm event, for a moment it seemed that it was going to be its limit, but it is not known how long it will go up

Sorry what exactly do you mean with Elam 

[Isatsuki San]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

Sorry what exactly do you mean with Elam 

the translator, I cut out the word, I wanted to say, if epam is detected the cme that he came out with with the M5

[MinYoongi]

4 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

the translator, I cut out the word, I wanted to say, if epam is detected the cme that he came out with with the M5

I still don’t get it sorry.

Maybe I’m dense today 😤😅

[Jesterface23]

7 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

the translator, I cut out the word, I wanted to say, if epam is detected the cme that he came out with with the M5

Those EPAM rises are from the M5 flare CME.

 

We do have an asymmetric halo CME, not quite what I was expecting to see.

Edited July 18, 2023 by Jesterface23

[MinYoongi]

@Philalethes we got some more imagery now  just giving you a heads up. So far on twitter I read 2 opinions that it likely isn’t earth directed. But I wait for this Forums opinions too.

[SpaceWeather5464]

S2! The first S2 radiation storm since 2017.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

Those EPAM rises are from the M5 flare CME.

 

We do have an asymmetric halo CME, not quite what I was expecting to see.

Why not expecting to see? 

1 hour ago, Isatsuki San said:

From my point of view, the only thing that comes from the CME is a weak and not very noticeable part, most of the eruption went into space.

i think the same but this forum is making me think otherwise ? im so confused

[cgrant26]

That sure looks impressive on LASCO C2 and C3. Certainly not a bulk hit but I think we're going to get at least a small chunk of it. Sure makes for some interesting SDO videos too.

Edited July 18, 2023 by cgrant26

[Jesterface23]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

Why not expecting to see? 

The CME looks cleaner than I thought it would and edge of the main bulk isn't too far from us. Still not expecting an impact from the main bulk.

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Jesterface23 said:

The CME looks cleaner than I thought it would and edge of the main bulk isn't too far from us. Still not expecting an impact from the main bulk.

Thank you for the explanation. impacts?

[Philalethes]

11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

How long do protons rise after a flare usually?

I think the typical estimate is that it can go on for several hours, and that they can remain elevated relative to baseline for days for really strong events, talking about the GOES proton flux in particular rather than the EPAM. If we take e.g. the lowest-energy protons considered part of the GOES proton flux itself, i.e. 10 MeV protons, it's a simple matter to calculate their speed, which is ~44,000 km/s, corresponding to a travel time of just less than an hour. This corresponds very well with when we saw the proton flux starting to rise.

As far as I understand the reason why they can keep rising much longer and remain elevated for even longer than that too is because they get ejected in a lot of different directions and end up following different magnetic field lines that can be much longer than 1 au, although I'm not entirely sure about exactly how that process works, definitely something to look more into. The higher-energy protons of the flux would arrive much faster if they simply traveled in a straight line towards us, only ~20 minutes as a rough estimate for 100 MeV protons, but they appear to start rising after the 10 MeV ones, so clearly this same process is at work there, with the majority of them taking indirect paths to the spacecraft measuring them and to Earth.

17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

@Philalethes we got some more imagery now  just giving you a heads up. So far on twitter I read 2 opinions that it likely isn’t earth directed. But I wait for this Forums opinions too.

Definitely looks promising to me. The angle highlighted below is clearly larger than 180°, looks like it's something like ~240°:

And the speed still seems to be around ~1500 km/s, which by the estimates of a paper I read recently should typically yield an average transit speed of ~1100 km/s, which in turn should yield an estimated deflection angle of ~-20-25°, further increasing chances of a hit. A lot of assumptions based on models there of course, the actual conditions can naturally vary considerably, but at least it should be somewhat reasonable.

[Jesterface23]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Thank you for the explanation. impacts?

My preliminary estimates are at around 54-66 hours travel time to L1. It is still early, but off of that I'd go with G2 possible.

[MinYoongi]

3 minutes ago, Philalethes said:

I think the typical estimate is that it can go on for several hours, and that they can remain elevated relative to baseline for days for really strong events, talking about the GOES proton flux in particular rather than the EPAM. If we take e.g. the lowest-energy protons considered part of the GOES proton flux itself, i.e. 10 MeV protons, it's a simple matter to calculate their speed, which is ~44,000 km/s, corresponding to a travel time of just less than an hour. This corresponds very well with when we saw the proton flux starting to rise.

As far as I understand the reason why they can keep rising much longer and remain elevated for even longer than that too is because they get ejected in a lot of different directions and end up following different magnetic field lines that can be much longer than 1 au, although I'm not entirely sure about exactly how that process works, definitely something to look more into. The higher-energy protons of the flux would arrive much faster if they simply traveled in a straight line towards us, only ~20 minutes as a rough estimate for 100 MeV protons, but they appear to start rising after the 10 MeV ones, so clearly this same process is at work there, with the majority of them taking indirect paths to the spacecraft measuring them and to Earth.

Definitely looks promising to me. The angle highlighted below is clearly larger than 180°, looks like it's something like ~240°:

And the speed still seems to be around ~1500 km/s, which by the estimates of a paper I read recently should typically yield an average transit speed of ~1100 km/s, which in turn should yield an estimated deflection angle of ~-20-25°, further increasing chances of a hit. A lot of assumptions based on models there of course, the actual conditions can naturally vary considerably, but at least it should be somewhat reasonable.

Thank you for the nice explanation. i think it will take some time to wrap my head around it.   Do you think around g1-g2 too?

2 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

My preliminary estimates are at around 54-66 hours travel time to L1. It is still early, but off of that I'd go with G2 possible.

thanks! that sounds reasonable.

Model run is out with estimate around Kp7 and it shows an edge clip

but the model is not toooo good with estimated KP.. what do you guys think

[Isatsuki San]

13 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Gracias por la buena explicación. Creo que me llevará algún tiempo entenderlo.   ¿Piensas también en g1-g2?

¡gracias! eso suena razonable.

La ejecución del modelo está agotada con una estimación de alrededor de Kp7 y muestra un clip de borde

pero el modelo no es demasiado bueno con KP estimado... ¿qué opinan ustedes?

oh wow, I didn't think it would be like this

[Philalethes]

On 7/18/2023 at 5:07 AM, MinYoongi said:

Thank you for the nice explanation. i think it will take some time to wrap my head around it.

Yeah, it takes some time to conceptualize for sure, and our current models aren't exactly perfect either, nor are the conditions always the same. But it boils down to how the particles move in spirals around the field lines, like this:

So the velocity component along the field line itself (V_parallel) can vary greatly. Some particles have a larger velocity component along the field line, and will thus arrive faster, whereas other particles with the same energy (and thus total speed) have a larger perpendicular component (V_perpendicular) instead, and will thus move more slowly along the field line. Here you can see a crude animation of the helical movement of a charged particle in a magnetic field:

Whereas if the particle had a larger parallel velocity component (along the direction of the field lines as indicated by arrows), it would naturally progress farther along the field line with each turn, which in the case of particles emitted by Solar activity would mean earlier arrival for those particular particles.

On 7/18/2023 at 5:07 AM, MinYoongi said:

Do you think around g1-g2 too?

Sounds like a very fair guess to me, although it will depend on the magnetic field structure of whatever ends up hitting us. Wouldn't surprise me at all if geomagnetic activity ends up there.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Philalethes
velocity vs. speed & typo

[tniickck]

seems it stopped, around M4

Edited July 19, 2023 by tniickck

[Sapphire828]

7 hours ago, tniickck said:

seems it stopped, around M4

What's the link to access the above live data? Thanks 

[tniickck]

1 hour ago, Sapphire828 said:

What's the link to access the above live data? Thanks 

https://tesis.xras.ru/sun_flares.html

only in russian

Edited July 20, 2023 by tniickck
wrong link

[Newbie]

51 minutes ago, Sapphire828 said:

What's the link to access the above live data? Thanks 

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux

N.