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AR 13363


tniickck

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48 minutes ago, cgrant26 said:

We did just get a CME from it yesterday though.

I guess that was technically from a filament, but I'd say it was definitely a filament associated with this region, a so-called active region filament (which tend to be more like smaller and shorter-lived versions of their standalone counterparts, and are more likely to erupt).

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Taking a close look at the CME this morning with fresh eyes, the CME may be a glancing blow. These past 2 CMEs are fairly similar. Maybe as little as a 10 degree shift in either direction and it would be easy to see if they are a bulk hit or glancing blow.

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4 hours ago, cgrant26 said:

Did we get another CME originating from this region? Looked like another filament snap at around 13:30 UT. Smaller than the one from yesterday but pretty easy to see in the 304 Red wavelength movie.

https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/

 

Looks like a phenomenon called a "spray" or "surge" - a brief narrow stream of plasma - analogous in appearance to spraying water or paint at high pressure through a small diameter nozzle.  AR3363 has been exhibiting this behavior for much of its traversal across the solar disk.

I did also see that thin black cloud (filament?) erupting from this region at this time, but I haven't seen anything in the coronagraphs, and there was no coronal dimming.

Edited by Drax Spacex
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kp4 is predicted in the day of arrival

IMG_20230712_230217_312.jpg

Space Weather Message Code: WATA20
Serial Number: 953
Issue Time: 2023 Jul 12 2025 UTC

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Jul 13:  None (Below G1)   Jul 14:  None (Below G1)   Jul 15:  G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

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For a few hours a (positive) blue spot has been growing at high speed next to the big red one.  It doesn't have an umbra in the intensitygram, but I have been struck by how quickly it has evolved and how close is to the large negative spot.  If this evolution continues, it could get interesting soon.  That itself isn't some kind of mistake, I expect opinions from someone who understands more about the matter

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On 7/14/2023 at 9:06 PM, Ester89 said:

For a few hours a (positive) blue spot has been growing at high speed next to the big red one.  It doesn't have an umbra in the intensitygram, but I have been struck by how quickly it has evolved and how close is to the large negative spot.  If this evolution continues, it could get interesting soon.  That itself isn't some kind of mistake, I expect opinions from someone who understands more about the matter

Solar soft just attributed the latest M1 flare to this region after a C6 earlier today.

Solen (Jan Alvestad) identify three delta groups and some mixing of polarity. He classifies it as BGD.

N.

Edited by Newbie
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8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

Too far west already? (im on vacation, couldnt keep up with space weather this week)

It's at around 40W; not impossible for something Earth-directed from there, but getting less likely. This eruption also seemed like it was directed too much southward.

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