Vancanneyt Sander Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 uur geleden, Ester89 zei: It looks like we have a delta, doesn't it? indeed, a nice development 🙂 but it's still relatively quiet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: indeed, a nice development 🙂 but it's still relatively quiet We did just get a CME from it yesterday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 48 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: We did just get a CME from it yesterday though. I guess that was technically from a filament, but I'd say it was definitely a filament associated with this region, a so-called active region filament (which tend to be more like smaller and shorter-lived versions of their standalone counterparts, and are more likely to erupt). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 CME lollipop gif predicts the CME arrival at about 6 pm 14 Jul UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Taking a close look at the CME this morning with fresh eyes, the CME may be a glancing blow. These past 2 CMEs are fairly similar. Maybe as little as a 10 degree shift in either direction and it would be easy to see if they are a bulk hit or glancing blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Did we get another CME originating from this region? Looked like another filament snap at around 13:30 UT. Smaller than the one from yesterday but pretty easy to see in the 304 Red wavelength movie. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drax Spacex Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, cgrant26 said: Did we get another CME originating from this region? Looked like another filament snap at around 13:30 UT. Smaller than the one from yesterday but pretty easy to see in the 304 Red wavelength movie. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/  Looks like a phenomenon called a "spray" or "surge" - a brief narrow stream of plasma - analogous in appearance to spraying water or paint at high pressure through a small diameter nozzle. AR3363 has been exhibiting this behavior for much of its traversal across the solar disk. I did also see that thin black cloud (filament?) erupting from this region at this time, but I haven't seen anything in the coronagraphs, and there was no coronal dimming. Edited July 12, 2023 by Drax Spacex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Looks like it's being modeled as a decent hit by Enlil: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 kp4 is predicted in the day of arrival Space Weather Message Code: WATA20 Serial Number: 953 Issue Time: 2023 Jul 12 2025 UTC WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day: Jul 13:Â None (Below G1)Â Â Jul 14:Â None (Below G1)Â Â Jul 15:Â G1 (Minor) THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 14, 2023 Author Share Posted July 14, 2023 M1 flare, quite unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ester89 Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 For a few hours a (positive) blue spot has been growing at high speed next to the big red one. It doesn't have an umbra in the intensitygram, but I have been struck by how quickly it has evolved and how close is to the large negative spot. If this evolution continues, it could get interesting soon. That itself isn't some kind of mistake, I expect opinions from someone who understands more about the matter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbie Posted July 14, 2023 Share Posted July 14, 2023 (edited) On 7/14/2023 at 9:06 PM, Ester89 said: For a few hours a (positive) blue spot has been growing at high speed next to the big red one. It doesn't have an umbra in the intensitygram, but I have been struck by how quickly it has evolved and how close is to the large negative spot. If this evolution continues, it could get interesting soon. That itself isn't some kind of mistake, I expect opinions from someone who understands more about the matter Solar soft just attributed the latest M1 flare to this region after a C6 earlier today. Solen (Jan Alvestad) identify three delta groups and some mixing of polarity. He classifies it as BGD. N. Edited July 16, 2023 by Newbie 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Decent eruptive flare; doesn't look Earth-directed from the first C2 imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 About time! Â He had three deltas too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 51 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Decent eruptive flare; doesn't look Earth-directed from the first C2 imagery. Too far west already? (im on vacation, couldnt keep up with space weather this week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Too far west already? (im on vacation, couldnt keep up with space weather this week) It's at around 40W; not impossible for something Earth-directed from there, but getting less likely. This eruption also seemed like it was directed too much southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 15, 2023 Author Share Posted July 15, 2023 beta-gamma-delta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 15, 2023 Share Posted July 15, 2023 Tough to tell. C2 has a light some type of halo, but C3 is only at 3 hour intervals plus there is a different western limb/farside eruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Looks like another eruptive event to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted July 16, 2023 Share Posted July 16, 2023 Now it has a 20% chance of an X class flare and it just had a M4 class flare which launched a fast filament. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 16, 2023 Author Share Posted July 16, 2023 20% is crazy  Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 Looks like some farewell fireworks from this region; the first blast looked pretty hefty, and this second flare is even stronger than the first one, seems to be topping out at M5 as I type this. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted July 17, 2023 Share Posted July 17, 2023 M5 class flare in progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesterface23 Posted July 17, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted July 17, 2023 The M2.7 was a little bit eruptive. This M5 flare is extremely eruptive. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mozy Posted July 17, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted July 17, 2023 Woah what a beauty of an eruption 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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