tniickck Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 57 minutes ago, mozy said: We currently have a filament releasing, earth directed CME perhaps? Looks like this, i was quite surprised after i saw it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 1 minute ago, tniickck said: Looks like this, i was quite surprised after i saw it I psoted a stereo Frame, im not sure how to interpret it with stereo-s drift though. looks like a partial halo? would appreciate opinions and updates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 22 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: btw, is this a bug/glithc or is there blue in the hole in the red? I suspect it's a glitch, anything else would just be too strange. Since it's happened previously for spots that seem to have a very strong magnetic field, my bet is that it's something to do with the algorithm used to calculate the magnetic field from the observed light. 11 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: to the cme: A friend on twitter and i are speculating, he says its a broad sweep and could be earth directed. i say its too much south/west. what do you say? I'd agree that it's certainly a wide sweep, but there's definitely a southward motion to it. Given its position I would think it's quite possible for some ejecta to be flung in our direction, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Just now, Philalethes said: I'd agree that it's certainly a wide sweep, but there's definitely a southward motion to it. Given its position I would think it's quite possible for some ejecta to be flung in our direction, though. Thank you. Did you look at Stereo? Ah, so more of a glancing impact thingy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 11, 2023 Author Share Posted July 11, 2023 (edited) looking on the trajectory of CME, i would say it is not going towards us, but a bit west, so it must be only partial halo Edited July 11, 2023 by tniickck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: Thank you. Did you look at Stereo? Ah, so more of a glancing impact thingy I was just looking at it; and apparently on the STEREO page there's even a recent image from LASCO that's not available on the LASCO website itself, really wonder where such images can be accessed reliably. Definitely looks quite southward from that view to me, but still not easy to conclude from just a single still image. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I was just looking at it; and apparently on the STEREO page there's even a recent image from LASCO that's not available on the LASCO website itself, really wonder where such images can be accessed reliably. Definitely looks quite southward from that view to me, but still not easy to conclude from just a single still image. I once had a link with fast loading lasco data. i lost it, sadly. thanks for the opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 24 minutes ago, Philalethes said: I was just looking at it; and apparently on the STEREO page there's even a recent image from LASCO that's not available on the LASCO website itself, really wonder where such images can be accessed reliably. Definitely looks quite southward from that view to me, but still not easy to conclude from just a single still image. Looks like a partial halo so far. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 3 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: Looks like a partial halo so far. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph I see it's been updated now; can't say I quite see the halo at this point, though, but maybe I'm not looking at it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 12 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: Looks like a partial halo so far. https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/lasco-coronagraph A partial halo would be a glancing impact? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: A partial halo would be a glancing impact? Not necessarily. If we take e.g. the definition in this paper: Quote The span of partial halo CMEs ranges from a lower limit to 359 degrees. The lower limit is defined somewhat arbitrary from 100° [Lyons et al., 1998] to 140° [Webb et al., 2000]. Even if you restrict a partial halo to at least be 140°, you'd still be short of the 180° or more you typically want for a hit at that lower limit; but 180°-359° would also be a partial halo, and more likely geoeffective. In this case it doesn't seem to me like this CME has an angle of even 140°, though; maybe not even 100°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cgrant26 Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 How do you determine the boundary of a CME? There's a fainter ring of material around the bright part that's moving at the same speed and direction of the brighter material behind it. Does that part not get counted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 11 minutes ago, cgrant26 said: How do you determine the boundary of a CME? There's a fainter ring of material around the bright part that's moving at the same speed and direction of the brighter material behind it. Does that part not get counted? Well, that's the hard part; it's fully possible that there are faint parts that I'm just not spotting, but it's fairly easy to "see ghosts" when trying to make out something very faint. Here I've drawn in the lines corresponding to where in the imagery it seems to me like the boundary is; the blue lines are where I think it is, and the green lines represent the farthest out if I include the faintest possible parts I can imagine might be part of the eruption: The blue lines probably represent an angle of a bit over 100°, barely classifying as the lower limit of a partial halo per the above definition; the green lines on the other hand are over 180°, which would be the gold standard for a possible hit (but it's not always that simple either, the above paper actually goes into a bit of detail about it from what I skimmed). Could definitely just be me not seeing it right, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 4 minutes ago, Philalethes said: Well, that's the hard part; it's fully possible that there are faint parts that I'm just not spotting, but it's fairly easy to "see ghosts" when trying to make out something very faint. Here I've drawn in the lines corresponding to where in the imagery it seems to me like the boundary is; the blue lines are where I think it is, and the green lines represent the farthest out if I include the faintest possible parts I can imagine might be part of the eruption: The blue lines probably represent an angle of a bit over 100°, barely classifying as the lower limit of a partial halo per the above definition; the green lines on the other hand are over 180°, which would be the gold standard for a possible hit (but it's not always that simple either, the above paper actually goes into a bit of detail about it from what I skimmed). Could definitely just be me not seeing it right, though. I agree. So not earth directed at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 Even though it isn't all strong, there is a vary large area of center-disk CHs that will make it tough to see the northern side of the CME. SOHO's C3 imagery will help a lot when that comes in (hopefully). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 11, 2023 Share Posted July 11, 2023 8 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: I agree. So not earth directed at all? Based on how it looks so far I have my doubts; but never say never. Maybe the C3 imagery will offer more insight, it's naturally better for looking at the long-term movements of the plasma. Doesn't seem that fast either, speed around 500-600 km/s by my estimate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tniickck Posted July 12, 2023 Author Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 SOHO's first C3 image came in as well and we have a great halo. Only one image so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 1 hour ago, Philalethes said: Based on how it looks so far I have my doubts; but never say never. Maybe the C3 imagery will offer more insight, it's naturally better for looking at the long-term movements of the plasma. Doesn't seem that fast either, speed around 500-600 km/s by my estimate. 36 minutes ago, tniickck said: 23 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: SOHO's first C3 image came in as well and we have a great halo. Only one image so far though. Full halo? im so confused now. some say south, some say glancing blow, you say (full?) halo.. 😕 Iswa run from 22:14 UTC shows farside ? im so confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 19 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: SOHO's first C3 image came in as well and we have a great halo. Only one image so far though. The latest C3 image I can see is the one from 20:30, and I still can't say I see much of a halo myself, let alone a great one; still looks like a partial halo at best to me, so I guess you're spotting something I'm not quite seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 There is a ~3 hour data gap that helped with the difference imagery. I'll need about 2 more hours of imagery and hopefully that gap fills. ........ Meanwhile as I typed that the data gap filled. Yay 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There is a ~3 hour data gap that helped with the difference imagery. I'll need about 2 more hours of imagery and hopefully that gap fills. ........ Meanwhile as I typed that the data gap filled. Yay That does look more impressive. Now those latest images are finally showing on SOHO's site, and being updated at NOAA's too, and the halo is evident; faint, but clearly visible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Maybe not the best impact, but I think we will get a bulk impact from this CME. I keep falling around 57 hours travel time, so I'll go with that as my preliminary travel time and G2 possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 Some more interesting stuff happening within this region now, the positive area is growing, slowly though.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ester89 Posted July 12, 2023 Share Posted July 12, 2023 2 hours ago, mozy said: Some more interesting stuff happening within this region now, the positive area is growing, slowly though.. It looks like we have a delta, doesn't it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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