It seems that the bz is to the south and it is causing that there will be a geomagnetic activity kp4

Edited January 8, 20241 yr by Sam Warfel
Edited to change thread name and clarify purpose

Yes.

It's reached KP5/G1 now, geomagnetic storm confirmed. That's quite early based on the projections I've seen, but Jesterface23 did predict a much earlier impact than those, maybe that's indeed what has happened. There was also a smaller CH that formed briefly preceding the eruption, so maybe that played into it too, and now there's the potential impact of the larger CH to the south, both might have helped the CME(s) to various extents; and on top of that there seems to be a large equatorial CH that has newly formed and is about to pass the central meridian, exciting times.

28 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

It's reached KP5/G1 now, geomagnetic storm confirmed. That's quite early based on the projections I've seen, but Jesterface23 did predict a much earlier impact than those, maybe that's indeed what has happened. There was also a smaller CH that formed briefly preceding the eruption, so maybe that played into it too, and now there's the potential impact of the larger CH to the south, both might have helped the CME(s) to various extents; and on top of that there seems to be a large equatorial CH that has newly formed and is about to pass the central meridian, exciting times.

you think its the filament cme already? i dont think so

 

15 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

you think its the filament cme already? i dont think so

I'm not sure. It does seem very fast, especially compared to e.g. the Enlil projection, but there was that small CH that went away which preceded the eruption, so perhaps it could have allowed the eruption to arrive faster than expected. But I agree that it's far from certain, and could very well be something else; maybe it's the HSS from that small CH itself.

17 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

¿Crees que es el filamento cme ya? no me parece

 

Just now, Philalethes Bythos said:

No estoy seguro. Parece muy rápido, especialmente en comparación con, por ejemplo, la proyección de Enlil, pero hubo ese pequeño CH que se fue y precedió a la erupción, por lo que quizás podría haber permitido que la erupción llegara más rápido de lo esperado. Pero estoy de acuerdo en que está lejos de ser cierto y que muy bien podría ser otra cosa; tal vez sea el HSS de ese pequeño CH en sí.

 omg...

The CME did not arrive at Earth yet. I'll need to take a look back once it does arrive.

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

La CME aún no ha llegado a la Tierra. Tendré que echar un vistazo atrás una vez que llegue.

I know, but how can you know that the stereo a, got that data?

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

The CME did not arrive at Earth yet. I'll need to take a look back once it does arrive.

Was there any particular reason why you expected it to arrive so quickly when you first made the prediction? It seemed a bit too early to me, but I'd like to hear the reasoning for it. I do think there's a fair chance it'll arrive earlier than the Enlil forecast, though.

4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Was there any particular reason why you expected it to arrive so quickly when you first made the prediction? It seemed a bit too early to me, but I'd like to hear the reasoning for it. I do think there's a fair chance it'll arrive earlier than the Enlil forecast, though.

I was looking at a twitter that said that it seems that it will arrive before,

4 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Was there any particular reason why you expected it to arrive so quickly when you first made the prediction? It seemed a bit too early to me, but I'd like to hear the reasoning for it. I do think there's a fair chance it'll arrive earlier than the Enlil forecast, though.

I think it goes back to 2 CMEs launching. Running calculations STEREO A was at around 33 hours of travel time and SOHO was at around 41 which didn't make much sense, so I put my preliminary forecast in the middle. I'll just need to let the CME run through and go back through the data.

 

But going with what we should expect with the CME arriving at any time now, velocities may reach between 650-700km/s.

1 minute ago, Jesterface23 said:

Creo que se remonta al lanzamiento de 2 CME . Ejecución de cálculos STEREO A estaba en alrededor de 33 horas de tiempo de viaje y SOHO estaba en alrededor de 41, lo que no tenía mucho sentido, así que puse mi pronóstico preliminar en el medio. Solo tendré que dejar que el CME se ejecute y volver a revisar los datos.

 

Pero siguiendo con lo que deberíamos esperar con la llegada de la CME en cualquier momento, las velocidades pueden alcanzar entre 650-700 km/s.

am I would trigger a stronger than expected geomagnetic storm?

1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said:

am I would trigger a stronger than expected geomagnetic storm?

We'll find out, the SWPC did note a chance of G3. Keep that Bz south

7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Lo descubriremos, el SWPC notó una posibilidad de G3. Mantén ese Bz al sur

on twitter space weather watch says that stereo A observed an increase of 10 to 30 nt the magnetic field so... I want to ask where can you observe that?

1 minute ago, Isatsuki San said:

on twitter space weather watch says that stereo A observed an increase of 10 to 30 nt the magnetic field so... I want to ask where can you observe that?

That can be found here Total B,

https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2023/04/23/insitu.shtml

3 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Eso se puede encontrar aquí Total B,

https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2023/04/23/insitu.shtml

Thank you very much I already saw... and wow

4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

That can be found here Total B,

https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2023/04/23/insitu.shtml

Pretty great how the words "ahead" and "behind" correspond to the first two letters of the alphabet; a match made in heaven.

I haven't looked a lot at the Stereo A and B data directly, I'll definitely bookmark it and look more at it when interesting events happen.

Hace 24 minutos, Philalethes Bythos dijo:

Muy bueno cómo las palabras "adelante" y "detrás" corresponden a las dos primeras letras del alfabeto; Un partido en el cielo.

No he mirado mucho los datos de Stereo A y B directamente, definitivamente los marcaré y miraré más cuando sucedan eventos interesantes.

Aquí están los datos, ¿ustedes que opinan?

I am very afraid that a geomagnetic storm kp 9 will pass

Edited April 23, 20232 yr by Isatsuki San

CME inbound possibly within the next 30 minutes

13 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

Here is the data, what do you think?

I'm not entirely sure; as far as I'm aware the Bz component of the field is what's primarily important for geomagnetic activity here, but maybe differences in By can be relevant when measured at the Stereo satellites somehow. I wouldn't think there'd be a large difference intuitively, but I could definitely be wrong. At least it looks like the majority of the difference is in the By component, but there does seem to be some difference in the Bz component too.

26 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said:

I am very afraid that a geomagnetic storm kp 9 will pass

There isn't a chance for Kp9, it's not one of those events.

....

The CME has arrived at L1

7 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

No hay oportunidad para Kp9, no es uno de esos eventos.

ok, I found it surprising that this arrived a little early

Pretty decent impact

14 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

No estoy del todo seguro; que yo sepa, el componente Bz del campo es lo que es más importante para la actividad geomagnética aquí, pero tal vez las diferencias en By pueden ser relevantes cuando se miden en los satélites estéreo de alguna manera. No creo que haya una gran diferencia intuitivamente, pero definitivamente podría estar equivocado. Al menos parece que la mayor parte de la diferencia está en el componente Por, pero también parece haber alguna diferencia en el componente Bz.

the cme arrived, 26 nt and 23 bis to the south