Strong far side CME

[Jesterface23]

Now I can't go back to sleep until I answer this lol. The CME that arrived around /15 03:47Z was due to a filament eruption around /12 19:00Z.

[MinYoongi]

6 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

Now I can't go back to sleep until I answer this lol. The CME that arrived around /15 03:47Z was due to a filament eruption around /12 19:00Z.

Thank you:)

[Christopher S.]

1 hour ago, MinYoongi said:

So the CME right now is the farside one? I’m confused @Calder 

The chronology of events is quite confusing, as multiple distinct events take place rapidly enough to enhance the disturbances felt here on Earth. To begin:

A far-side CME occurred roughly simultaneously with a near-side filament eruption, in which the filament spent most of Mar 11 accelerating away from the sun until around 1600 where it popped and produced its own CME.

A magnificent filament eruption on the NE limb starting around Mar 12 0030 UTC and ending around 0445 occurred. After that, another filament eruption, Mar 12 1900 UTC, on the SE limb produced an earth-directed CME, likely acting as the primary driver for the storming conditions right now. Shortly after that, a weak far-side CME followed by the major event, Mar 13 0330, which defies the conventional approach to CME analysis as it was an ER(extremely rare) event.

The far-side event this topic is discussing had explosive characteristics which sent a bounty of particles in all directions and at a blistering pace relative to other CMEs, which is enhancing other incoming energy. So in summary, the active conditions are a combination of near- and far-side events, with the major event still lingering on. I was incorrect in assuming the Bz was a function of our position in the IMF, and kinda threw this topic off for connecting it to the far-side event, even if there is "disturbance overlap".

[Isatsuki San]

it seems that there is again there is a storm g2

14 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

The chronology of events is quite confusing, as multiple distinct events take place rapidly enough to enhance the disturbances felt here on Earth. To begin:

A far-side CME occurred roughly simultaneously with a near-side filament eruption, in which the filament spent most of Mar 11 accelerating away from the sun until around 1600 where it popped and produced its own CME.

A magnificent filament eruption on the NE limb starting around Mar 12 0030 UTC and ending around 0445 occurred. After that, another filament eruption, Mar 12 1900 UTC, on the SE limb produced an earth-directed CME, likely acting as the primary driver for the storming conditions right now. Shortly after that, a weak far-side CME followed by the major event, Mar 13 0330, which defies the conventional approach to CME analysis as it was an ER(extremely rare) event.

The far-side event this topic is discussing had explosive characteristics which sent a bounty of particles in all directions and at a blistering pace relative to other CMEs, which is enhancing other incoming energy. So in summary, the active conditions are a combination of near- and far-side events, with the major event still lingering on. I was incorrect in assuming the Bz was a function of our position in the IMF, and kinda threw this topic off for connecting it to the far-side event, even if there is "disturbance overlap".

It seems that the activity of follows me, because again we are in a geomagnetic storm kp7

[David Silver]

Coronal hole stream plus front side flare a few days ago, enhanced with extra particles from the far side event. Enlil

Edited March 16, 2023 by David Silver

[Christopher S.]

I think it's fairest to say, we missed something spectacular, judging by this. 

Maybe some cross-equator action involved, there.

[Philalethes]

@Hagen72:

If you look at the post I made here, you can see this paper where relations between speed and strength of CMEs is covered. They're going by estimates based on coronagraph imagery, much like ourselves in cases like these, so as they admit there's always a fair amount of uncertainty involved. That being said, their plot of the CMEs they've looked at together with their estimate for the linear regression fit looks like this:

Note here that the speed (V_CME) is the speed near Sol, right after the eruption, and as many have pointed out this might not be representative of the average speed over longer distances, such as to Earth, but in this case that works well enough since we're trying to estimate based on precisely that observed speed after eruption. Also, on the x-axis you can see the various fluxes, 10^(-4) corresponding to X1, 10^(-3) to X10, and so on.

For the sake of calculations, we'll assume the estimate of ~3000 km/s I saw floating around, but perhaps someone has a better estimate for that by now. As you can see, that's in the upper range of the CMEs plotted here. The dashed line, as it says underneath, represents the estimated maximum speed based on a given flare size, so by looking at the CME conveniently situated right on that line at 3000 km/s, this yields a minimum flare size of X4 by those criteria. If we go by the linear regression line and look at where one would expect the CME to be for that speed there, it's roughly at X10. It could have been stronger too, but I don't think it's meaningful to speculate much more beyond this. I'd be willing to stretch to X12 if I had to give an upper limit range for my estimate, but I doubt it was that strong. Also, due to uncertainty in the other direction and possible slower speed, I'd be willing to range all the way down to X1 just in case, since a CME at the very upper limit for speed at that strength could reach roughly the speed necessary, although X2 is more likely to fully reach 3000 km/s as per the relation.

So that's the very rough estimate I would give for the flare size: somewhere between X1 and X12.

[hamateur 1953]

Looks as if something major may have occurred.  Protons heading up plus a type 1V ( four) radio emission   My bad. sorry, it appears that I was looking at something from earlier.  Zip nada on cactus today!! 

Edited March 18, 2023 by hamateur 1953

[Tormentius]

6 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

@Hagen72:

If you look at the post I made here, you can see this paper where relations between speed and strength of CMEs is covered. They're going by estimates based on coronagraph imagery, much like ourselves in cases like these, so as they admit there's always a fair amount of uncertainty involved. That being said, their plot of the CMEs they've looked at together with their estimate for the linear regression fit looks like this:

Note here that the speed (V_CME) is the speed near Sol, right after the eruption, and as many have pointed out this might not be representative of the average speed over longer distances, such as to Earth, but in this case that works well enough since we're trying to estimate based on precisely that observed speed after eruption. Also, on the x-axis you can see the various fluxes, 10^(-4) corresponding to X1, 10^(-3) to X10, and so on.

For the sake of calculations, we'll assume the estimate of ~3000 km/s I saw floating around, but perhaps someone has a better estimate for that by now. As you can see, that's in the upper range of the CMEs plotted here. The dashed line, as it says underneath, represents the estimated maximum speed based on a given flare size, so by looking at the CME conveniently situated right on that line at 3000 km/s, this yields a minimum flare size of X4 by those criteria. If we go by the linear regression line and look at where one would expect the CME to be for that speed there, it's roughly at X10. It could have been stronger too, but I don't think it's meaningful to speculate much more beyond this. I'd be willing to stretch to X12 if I had to give an upper limit range for my estimate, but I doubt it was that strong. Also, due to uncertainty in the other direction and possible slower speed, I'd be willing to range all the way down to X1 just in case, since a CME at the very upper limit for speed at that strength could reach roughly the speed necessary, although X2 is more likely to fully reach 3000 km/s as per the relation.

So that's the very rough estimate I would give for the flare size: somewhere between X1 and X12.

This analysis of the event has it at a little over 2000 km/s instead.

 

[Philalethes]

40 minutes ago, Tormentius said:

This analysis of the event has it at a little over 2000 km/s instead.

I see; that definitely changes the estimate a lot. That would also mean that it's definitely not as rare as initially suspected. Eyeballing the graph above it's easy to see that a lot of the CMEs there were clocked at around that speed (note that the events plotted there are all major SPEs from 1996-2014, 110 in total, 92 of which had halo CMEs; it's certainly still rare, not common by any means). Judging by that the linear regression line falls almost directly on X1, which is far more reasonable. Also noteworthy is how certain strong M-flares can also produce CMEs of such speeds, even as low as M1 (and there looks to be a high C-flare in there clocked at around that speed too). If I were to give a revised estimate based on the new speed (~2100 km/s), I would guess somewhere between M5 and X3.

[Christopher S.]

2 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

I see; that definitely changes the estimate a lot. That would also mean that it's definitely not as rare as initially suspected.

Based on speed alone? I feel that an entirely different type of event took place in which the two+ ARs rotating into view did something not quite resembling a flare/CME combo as we know it, due to the variety of latent geophysical effects observed following it. If reducing it to "A far side X1 flare with a basic CME signature" then we're missing out on the good stuff, here.

While feeling isn't good enough to make any real claims, it's adequate for a wide range of speculation which can be applied to this. All I can say - it's a damn shame we didn't witness it.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Christopher S.
Added +

[Philalethes]

2 hours ago, Christopher S. said:

Based on speed alone? I feel that an entirely different type of event took place in which the two+ ARs rotating into view did something not quite resembling a flare/CME combo as we know it, due to the variety of latent geophysical effects observed following it. If reducing it to "A far side X1 flare with a basic CME signature" then we're missing out on the good stuff, here.

While feeling isn't good enough to make any real claims, it's adequate for a wide range of speculation which can be applied to this. All I can say - it's a damn shame we didn't witness it.

Those estimates are based on the speed alone, yes; as per the relationships in that paper. I agree that it's fully possible that something more complex occurred, but we really don't know. That being said, the CME signature wouldn't necessarily need to have been that "basic", depending on what you mean by that; at least there's plenty of room for a wide variety of other parameters within the bounds of the speeds and strengths listed.

Hopefully we'll get some data from PSP eventually. I'm not sure exactly what instruments it's equipped with, but I would guess it has some way of measuring X-ray flux and something to see CMEs with, and presumably also robust enough to handle an event like that without any problem.

Also, as an aside, I noticed in the article on the NASA blog above that it mentioned that it was currently believed (doesn't say exactly by whom) to have been from 3234; I'm not sure if they have simply modeled it better than us or to what extent they're accounting for the evidence suggesting it was from the lower regions, but seems like a possibly wrong assumption. Probably not relevant to their speed estimate anyway, but it'd be interesting to see what other people have estimated the speed at too.

[Drax Spacex]

Another strong and fast far side CME 2024-FEB-14 seen in LASCO and briefly along the perimeter of AIA imagery to the south with type II and IV sweeps.

https://ibb.co/F71rGrg

[hamateur 1953]

Probably 3575 if I were to hazard a guess… 

[Parabolic]

10 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

Probably 3575 if I were to hazard a guess… 

Yep, showing off it's potential 🙃

[Sam Warfel]

1 hour ago, Drax Spacex said:

Another strong and fast far side CME 2024-FEB-14 seen in LASCO and briefly along the perimeter of AIA imagery to the south with type II and IV sweeps.

https://ibb.co/F71rGrg

I noticed those radio emissions and was a bit surprised, since there was no nearside activity.  I didn’t know farsided CMEs could give radio emissions, since they are moving away, but evidently they can! I stand corrected.

[hamateur 1953]

I recall quite awhile back that someone here maybe @Sam Warfel not only gave us rough odds of getting whacked by a cme based on historical studies but also made clear our rough “ target zone” in longitude for Active Regions.   Does this ring a bell with anyone on the forum?? Just curious, thanks  Mike 

Hilarious I just now see his post above! 

Edited February 14 by hamateur 1953

[tniickck]

only on the farside as usual 

mars is getting destroyed

[Sam Warfel]

Do you mean a guess whereby if we say ~20 degrees of the front of the sun is Earth-facing, so for low-latitude ARs, only 20 out of 360 degrees is geoeffective?  Is 5%, if I did my math right? 5% of all flares and CMEs in low latitudes should be Earth-facing?  Seems a stretch but maybe it’s true.
There were some big assumptions in that as well

5 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said:

I recall quite awhile back that someone here maybe @Sam Warfel not only gave us rough odds of getting whacked by a cme based on historical studies but also made clear our rough “ target zone” in longitude for Active Regions.   Does this ring a bell with anyone on the forum?? Just curious, thanks  Mike 

 

 

Edited February 14 by Sam Warfel

[hamateur 1953]

Probably both Sam and naturally the unknowns like CH influence would be out of the picture. But Parker spiral probably fine.    Anyway I am probably incorrect as usual. I read a lot of springer stuff and it is possible that I may have read a discussion there as well thanks for the Like Sam. Im gonna dig through our archives.  It’s possible I may be able to find the discussion.   

Edited February 14 by hamateur 1953

[tniickck]

by the way, what were the speeds of this 3 farside CMEs (including X3.3 one)? i need to calculate something

Edited February 14 by tniickck

[hamateur 1953]

https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2446-why-so-many-limb-eruptions/?do=findComment&comment=22403

Here was the excellent discussion I remembered.  ( see above link) 

1 hour ago, Sam Warfel said:

I noticed those radio emissions and was a bit surprised, since there was no nearside activity.  I didn’t know farsided CMEs could give radio emissions, since they are moving away, but evidently they can! I stand corrected.

This is kinda off-topic but should answer your curiosity about radio emissions.  Light is essentially a radio emission at a higher frequency of course.  If we are able to see ejecta from a cme, it is probable that some radio emissions will accompany them.   And although that was a great discussion imo my aged brain probably combined another discussion from some obscure Springer article over my head anyway.  Haha.  

Edited February 14 by hamateur 1953
Only half an answer better than none . Ha ha

[Sam Warfel]

3 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

This is kinda off-topic but should answer your curiosity about radio emissions.  Light is essentially a radio emission at a higher frequency of course.  If we are able to see ejecta from a cme, it is probable that some radio emissions will accompany them.   And although that was a great discussion imo my aged brain probably combined another discussion from some obscure Springer article over my head anyway.  Haha.  

That seems legit, and worth considering!  They are both just electromagnetic radiation.  What I'm not quite sure about is how the radio emissions are produced.

[hamateur 1953]

11 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said:

That seems legit, and worth considering!  They are both just electromagnetic radiation.  What I'm not quite sure about is how the radio emissions are produced.

Me either Sam!!  Haha!  I’ll leave that to the bigger brains among us for now .. are they waves? Or particles?? If particles? What then is “ waving”. Nuff on that for now.  Quantum Physics not my strong point.  

[Newbie]

5 hours ago, hamateur 1953 said:

https://community.spaceweatherlive.com/topic/2446-why-so-many-limb-eruptions/?do=findComment&comment=22403

Here was the excellent discussion I remembered.  ( see above link) 

This is kinda off-topic but should answer your curiosity about radio emissions.  Light is essentially a radio emission at a higher frequency of course.  If we are able to see ejecta from a cme, it is probable that some radio emissions will accompany them.   And although that was a great discussion imo my aged brain probably combined another discussion from some obscure Springer article over my head anyway.  Haha.  

Thanks for resurrecting this.

That fact is that solar radio bursts travel out from the source in all directions therefore some far side eruptions that produce solar radio bursts are able to be detected earth side by radio telescopes.

Solar radio bursts, including type II, type III, and type IV bursts, are associated with dynamic processes such as shock waves from coronal mass ejections (CMEs) or energetic particle acceleration during solar flares.

These bursts are transient and occur suddenly during solar events.
Solar radio bursts propagate through the solar corona and the interplanetary medium. The medium can vary in density, magnetic field strength, and plasma turbulence, which can influence the propagation speed of the bursts travelling at much slower speeds than radio waves emitted during a flare which travel at light speed.

Solar radio bursts are radio waves. These bursts are emissions of electromagnetic radiation in the radio frequency range of the electromagnetic spectrum.

N.

Edited February 15 by Newbie
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