MinYoongi Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: Maybe 25-40 hours of travel time to 1AU, so it's getting close ? what do you mean its far side 29 minutes ago, Sam Warfel said: With launch speed estimates of 3000km/s, that CME could have had the potential for G5 storms if it had been Earth-directed, I’m sad it’s not. Still a good sign for the strength of SC25 though! he states they are rare, when was the last time we've seen such? the speed reminds me of the halloween storms? Do we have a region on the farside that evolved after rotating off the limb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Launch speed of potentially 3,000km/s+, and causing a radiation storm to occur even on the Earth-facing side. This definitely is an exceptional event. Not headed for Earth, but hopefully one of our satellites/probes will get some data from this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, MinYoongi said: ? what do you mean its far side Technically my forecasting method can work roughly for L1 and L3, just give and take several more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Flareguy18 Posted March 13, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted March 13, 2023 NASA has modeled the CME already. Notice has it's so strong there seems to be a shockwave that affects basically the entire sphere of The Sun. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Launch speed of potentially 3,000km/s+, and causing a radiation storm to occur even on the Earth-facing side. This definitely is an exceptional event. Not headed for Earth, but hopefully one of our satellites/probes will get some data from this. Welcome back! Halloween Storm level event, or possibly higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post arjemma Posted March 13, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) The thing is, we haven't had modeling and satellites like we have now for that long in history. This means that Carrington events might not be as rare as we think. Maybe we just haven't seen them before. It's still rare though and very cool. It would be cool to know how this CME would have affected earth if it was earth directed. Edited March 13, 2023 by arjemma 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Sam Warfel said: Welcome back! Halloween Storm level event, or possibly higher? It's good to be back! I'm open for more interpretation but this has a faster speed than those 2003 CMEs. Likely stronger. 3,000 km/s is among the fastest CME speeds we know about. 3 minutes ago, arjemma said: It's still rare though and very cool. It would be cool to know how this CME would have affected earth if it was earth directed. Hopefully some of our probes in orbit will be able to measure the CME! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Hopefully some of our probes in orbit will be able to measure the CME! Yes I really hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flareguy18 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Just now, SpaceWeather5464 said: S1 storm from a backside CME wow. I think the last time this happened was on July 23, 2012. This is the most powerful CME so far this solar cycle. Yeah, I was thinking something like this rarely happens. Today's CME may be of the same caliber. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Yeah, I was thinking something like this rarely happens. Today's CME may be of the same caliber. 3000 km/s+ are the rarest CME’s. There was another backside CME a few days ago that could have cleared the path of particles to allow this CME to go fast very rare indeed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 The odd thing about the July, 23rd, 2012 CME is that it basically lacked any type of glancing blow. It almost all a leading bulk. With both STEREO satellites next to us and STEREO B down now, we don't really know how large this CME is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 26 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said: Yeah, I was thinking something like this rarely happens. Today's CME may be of the same caliber. i think we got a radiation storm from a farside cme last year, i will dig through twitter to re-find it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 hmm. yes. reminiscent of August 4 1972. As the resident witness to that event according to Sam ( and I believe him to be accurate) Had the bz been south at all we really would’ve had an epic event!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hagen72 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Sam Warfel said: Mit geschätzten Startgeschwindigkeiten von 3000 km/s hätte dieses CME das Potenzial für G5-Stürme gehabt, wenn es auf die Erde gerichtet gewesen wäre, ich bin traurig, dass es das nicht ist. Trotzdem ein gutes Zeichen für die Stärke von SC25 ! I am not sad. 3000 km/s! Carrington? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3gMike Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 6 hours ago, arjemma said: Beautiful big eruption on the farside. I wonder what region it might be. Very exciting 😍 My best estimate would suggest that this came from AR3243 which was growing as it approached the West limb and produced an M5.8 flare on 5th March and an M5.08 on 6th March. It is located at Carrington longitude C307 which would mean it is approaching centre disk on the farside. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, 3gMike said: My best estimate would suggest that this came from AR3243 which was growing as it approached the West limb and produced an M5.8 flare on 5th March and an M5.08 on 6th March. It is located at Carrington longitude C307 which would mean it is approaching centre disk on the farside. yeah i thought so too, have you looked at farside imagery? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 36 minutes ago, Hagen72 said: Carrington? Fast, but possibly closer to the 2003 Halloween storms than a Carrington level event. 1 minute ago, 3gMike said: My best estimate would suggest that this came from AR3243 The shock came from the southern disk, opposite side of our southeast quarter of the disk. 3236 or 3230 seem closer, but they fell apart going over the limb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Jesterface23 said: Fast, but possibly closer to the 2003 Halloween storms than a Carrington level event. The shock came from the southern disk, opposite side of our southeast quarter of the disk. 3236 or 3230 seem closer, but they fell apart going over the limb. Carrington was 2300 or 2500 km/s because it took 18 hours. People are saying this one was 3000 km/s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 2 hours ago, 3gMike said: My best estimate would suggest that this came from AR3243 which was growing as it approached the West limb and produced an M5.8 flare on 5th March and an M5.08 on 6th March. It is located at Carrington longitude C307 which would mean it is approaching centre disk on the farside. Think it could have been 3234 too? Of course CMEs can launch in different directions, but 3234 seems to be a better fit location-wise if you assume the strongest part of the CME directed radially outward, doesn't it? It was flaring like crazy too. 2 hours ago, Jesterface23 said: The shock came from the southern disk, opposite side of our southeast quarter of the disk. 3236 or 3230 seem closer, but they fell apart going over the limb. Interesting; that's a helioseismological model, I take it? Do you know how accurate they typically are? My first guess without knowing that would have been 3234, but that was definitely quite a bit north (~N25). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 Most exciting event this solar cycle for sure. I'm also thinking that it might be AR 3234, it fits with the location. Oh how I wished STEREO A was more ahead of earth, I wanna see what's going on! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted March 13, 2023 Author Share Posted March 13, 2023 When will this region return? 13 minutes ago, arjemma said: Most exciting event this solar cycle for sure. I'm also thinking that it might be AR 3234, it fits with the location. Oh how I wished STEREO A was more ahead of earth, I wanna see what's going on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 4 hours ago, Flareguy18 said: Hopefully some of our probes in orbit will be able to measure the CME! Parker Solar Probe is literally in the exact position that would seemingly take the brunt of it; would be great if it got some good data on it from up close. 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: have you looked at farside imagery? Here's the latest from GONG: Regions fade in and out, but I believe P10 (P100?) might be 3234 and P76 3243; could be wrong, though. Also, Jesterface23 said the shock came from the southern hemisphere, so perhaps it's from the P83/P74 region there. Here's another view: I assume this either came from the rightmost region there, or the leftmost bottom one if it did indeed come from the southern hemisphere. 9 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When will this region return? From this it looks like it crossed the central meridian on 26/02, and at that latitude the rotational period is still ~25 days, so if we assume ~19 days until it shows up again on the limb, that would be 17/03. That's for 3234, but still don't know if that was really the one to produce it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calder Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 45 minutes ago, Philalethes Bythos said: Think it could have been 3234 too? Of course CMEs can launch in different directions, but 3234 seems to be a better fit location-wise if you assume the strongest part of the CME directed radially outward, doesn't it? I agree, 3234 seems like a better fit based on its location and the fact that it already had some complexity to it. 3236 would also be in the correct location but it looked like it was weakening as it crossed the limb. If Jester is right about the shock on the southern limb, then it very likely could have been 3236. Either way, I think we’ll get a view on the limb in about 5 to 6 days of both regions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) A bit off topic here but looks like the ground magnetometers was affected as well (see the slope down) which is pretty cool. If that's even the cause but looks like it? It dipped when the protons rose. Large eruption indeed. Edited March 13, 2023 by arjemma 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted March 13, 2023 Share Posted March 13, 2023 (edited) While it would've caused exciting G4-G5 level aurora, I don't even wanna begin to imagine the other side effects that would've been associated with it. tries to control intense urge to go on Youtube or social media 5 hours ago, Hagen72 said: I am not sad. 3000 km/s! Carrington? Yeah, that's my sentiments about this too. 😓 Edited March 13, 2023 by Bedreamon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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