Strong far side CME

[Isatsuki San]

4 hours ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Carrington fue de 2300 o 2500 km/s porque tardó 18 horas. La gente dice que este era de 3000 km/s.

a little curious fact on july 23, 2012 there was a carriptong event on the other side of the sun that reached a speed of 3200 km/s

[3gMike]

3 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Think it could have been 3234 too? Of course CMEs can launch in different directions, but 3234 seems to be a better fit location-wise if you assume the strongest part of the CME directed radially outward, doesn't it? It was flaring like crazy too.

Yes, it is a possibility. Looking again at the farside images it seems to have by far the stronger field (at C343)

[David Silver]

Zowie. Can you even begin to imagine the insane firehose of plasma at 3000 kilometers per second? Glad it was far side. 

[Jesterface23]

5 hours ago, SpaceWeather5464 said:

Carrington was 2300 or 2500 km/s because it took 18 hours. People are saying this one was 3000 km/s.

I believe 3000km/s would be the estimated launch speed. Eventually it will slow down over time.

5 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

perhaps it's from the P83/P74 region there.

The position does seem to fit almost perfectly.

4 hours ago, arjemma said:

A bit off topic here but looks like the ground magnetometers was affected as well (see the slope down) which is pretty cool. If that's even the cause but looks like it? It dipped when the protons rose. Large eruption indeed.

The dips in the magnetometer data is the normal day curve (or quiet day curve, forgot which one). They are caused by Earth's rotation.

1 hour ago, David Silver said:

Zowie. Can you even begin to imagine the insane firehose of plasma at 3000 kilometers per second? Glad it was far side.

We could take the hit from this CME. Several parameters and possibly CME characteristics would need to play along if something off the charts is to happen.

[Christopher S.]

It's a shame: only the solar radiation storm will be remembered by the archive here, even though we have witnessed enough to say with profound certainty that an event of extraordinary magnitude took place. I wonder if it would be a good idea to ask the admins to add the LASCO footage and a highlight of some kind on the calendar browser.

I've watched geomagnetic sensors globally daily for five years now, and it's now presenting irregularities beginning with precisely the far-side CME, which are giving me incredibly valuable signatures and data points. Some key words/terms for others to rabbit-hole, pertaining to my interests: Synchrotron Radiation, Interplanetary Medium, Starquakes(links to Startalk YT video with expert)

Edited March 14, 2023 by Christopher S.
Wanted to provide direction for the Starquake type I refer to

[Philalethes]

9 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

I believe 3000km/s would be the estimated launch speed. Eventually it will slow down over time.

Do you know how much CMEs typically tend to slow down over the course of 1 au of travel? If the Carrington event had an average speed of ~2300 km/s, I figure this one would have had to slow down a lot to end up at that speed or slower.

9 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

The position does seem to fit almost perfectly.

Based on the LASCO imagery, or are you using some other tool or data to estimate the source of the shock?

9 hours ago, Jesterface23 said:

We could take the hit from this CME.

How?

So many questions!

Edited March 14, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos

[David Silver]

It’s fascinating how much energy (SEPs/X-ray) reached the upper mesosphere / lower ionosphere from a far side event.

 

[Jesterface23]

3 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Do you know how much CMEs typically tend to slow down over the course of 1 au of travel? If the Carrington event had an average speed of ~2300 km/s, I figure this one would have had to slow down a lot to end up at that speed or slower.

I'm not sure by how much, but they expand and decelerate over time like what is seen in the models. The 2012/07/23 CME reached velocities of around 2246km/s on arrival, at least one of the 2003 Halloween solar storms reached >2000km/s velocities on arrival, and a 1972 CME probably had higher arrival velocities than both. I'm still not exactly sure where 3000km/s for this CME came from, but it is possibly a speed around launch. We only see roughly 15-20% of a CME's travel in SOHO LASCO C3 imagery.

4 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

Based on the LASCO imagery, or are you using some other tool or data to estimate the source of the shock?

I am looking at differenced SDO AIA 211 imagery. There is a greater disturbance over the ENE to SSE limb and is also where the shock is first visible. I've tried to make a video, but they haven't turned out too well.

4 hours ago, Philalethes Bythos said:

How?

Well, not literally taking a hit from the CME from the other side of the Sun. If it was facing us, we'd live.

[hamateur 1953]

In a few more days we should begin to see some nice loops on the incoming side, assuming of course it didn’t completely exhaust itself with that spectacular CME.   I’ve waited fifty years, a few more days is no big deal!! 

[Christopher S.]

3 hours ago, David Silver said:

It’s fascinating how much energy (SEPs/X-ray) reached the upper mesosphere / lower ionosphere from a far side event.

 

I've looped LASCO a few times to really visualize the event as far as we can see it, and it looks like the CME moved a bit away from the sun before exploding. A shock produced in all directions including across and around the Sun without displaying any near-side anomalies was felt near-instantly by ground instruments. Given the inherently strong magnetic fields at play in that area and within these events themselves, in addition to an observation of the energy magnitude of the event, it's fair to say that the abundance of the charged particles is a sign of Synchrotron production, further complicating the physics involved.

Can you imagine the noise this made?

[Jesterface23]

There is a possible answer that helped the proton event even further on our side. There is partially no shock in a small area on the southeast limb of the Sun in SDO's AIA 211 imagery, so there may be a CH there about to come over the limb.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Jesterface23

[Christopher S.]

8 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said:

There is a possible answer that helped the proton event even further on our side. There is partially no shock in a small area on the southeast limb of the Sun in SDO's AIA 211 imagery, so there may be a CH there about to come over the limb.

I saw that myself. Times like this I wish we had a 360 degree view.

[arjemma]

47 minutes ago, Christopher S. said:

I've looped LASCO a few times to really visualize the event as far as we can see it, and it looks like the CME moved a bit away from the sun before exploding. A shock produced in all directions including across and around the Sun without displaying any near-side anomalies was felt near-instantly by ground instruments. Given the inherently strong magnetic fields at play in that area and within these events themselves, in addition to an observation of the energy magnitude of the event, it's fair to say that the abundance of the charged particles is a sign of Synchrotron production, further complicating the physics involved.

Can you imagine the noise this made?

It did indeed affect the geomagnetic conditions on earth. I also looked at the dimmings and although it was a far side event you could see dimming around the whole sun. Very powerful event.

[Solarflaretracker200]

On 3/13/2023 at 3:50 PM, David Silver said:

Zowie. Can you even begin to imagine the insane firehose of plasma at 3000 kilometers per second? Glad it was far side. 

That would cause an S3 or S5 radiation storm. 

[Jesterface23]

The power of the shock may have almost reached the level of the 2017/09/10 CME.

[IlikeAuroras]

On 3/13/2023 at 9:01 AM, Flareguy18 said:

I'm open for more interpretation but this has a faster speed than those 2003 CMEs. Likely stronger. 3,000 km/s is among the fastest CME speeds we know about.

So the CME is technically a combination of the 2003 CME's and the 1972 CME's.

[Jesterface23]

12 minutes ago, IlikeAuroras said:

So the CME is technically a combination of the 2003 CME's and the 1972 CME's.

Likely lesser than the 2 2003 Halloween CMEs, but better than the 2017/09/06 CME had we taken a direct hit.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Jesterface23

[Sam Warfel]

(The posts on this topic from the Incoming Regions thread have been split off into this new thread for easy reference)

[Christopher S.]

I find this quite interesting. The IMF and likely IPM itself is oscillating in a wave-like fashion. It hadn't been doing this as uniformly leading up to this event, so I contribute this to the far-side event. In other words, in the context of the data I'm interested in, the event is still ongoing. I'm continuing to call it an event due to multiple rare phenomena associated with it. Event event event. Sorry lol.

[Calder]

15 minutes ago, Christopher S. said:

I find this quite interesting. The IMF and likely IPM itself is oscillating in a wave-like fashion. It hadn't been doing this as uniformly leading up to this event, so I contribute this to the far-side event. In other words, in the context of the data I'm interested in, the event is still ongoing. I'm continuing to call it an event due to multiple rare phenomena associated with it. Event event event. Sorry lol.

At 3:47 UTC, an unrelated CME impacted DSCOVR. That’s why the Bz is acting this way. It’s not unusual for it to oscillate this way after a CME impact.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Calder
Fixed time

[Christopher S.]

2 minutes ago, Calder said:

At 3:48 UTC, an unrelated CME impacted earth. That’s why the Bz is acting this way. It’s not unusual for it to oscillate this way after a CME impact.

Would you mind showing me this unrelated CME or giving a timestamp for when it occurred? It's difficult for me to conclude that the "echoes" of the event are non-present and everything is back to pre-event levels, given the plethora of anomalous readings I'm seeing elsewhere. 

[Calder]

19 minutes ago, Christopher S. said:

Would you mind showing me this unrelated CME or giving a timestamp for when it occurred? It's difficult for me to conclude that the "echoes" of the event are non-present and everything is back to pre-event levels, given the plethora of anomalous readings I'm seeing elsewhere. 

Sure, by looking at Solar Wind Speed, Density, and IMF, you can see a clear indication of a CME impact. I believe there were a couple CMEs from March 10 to the 11 caused by filament eruptions. NOAA has a G1 watch in place. But we shouldn’t get too off topic here.

Edited March 15, 2023 by Calder

[KW2P]

17 hours ago, David Silver said:

It’s fascinating how much energy (SEPs/X-ray) reached the upper mesosphere / lower ionosphere from a far side event.

 

Yeah, it's still going on. Now is not a good time for ham radio or any HF radio if you're located in the polar regions.

Back when the U.S. built a network of early warning radar systems along the Arctic Circle in the 1950s and 60s (the DEW Line), it was before the age of satellites. So what do you do about communications when storms like this quash normal radio operation?  They built systems that used an exotic form of radio propagation called tropo-scatter because it's immune to these storms since it doesn't rely on the ionosphere.

[Christopher S.]

47 minutes ago, Calder said:

Sure, by looking at Solar Wind Speed, Density, and IMF, you can see a clear indication of a CME impact. I believe there were a couple CMEs from March 10 to the 11 caused by filament eruptions. NOAA has a G1 watch in place. But we shouldn’t get too off topic here.

For the record, you're inferring that this is an unrelated CME impact based on the signature, and attempting to squash further analysis. Here is a product which does not agree with that notion:

 

It would be more fair and concise to say, maybe, that an unrelated CME is enhancing already ongoing activity.

I am getting tripped up on which topic I'm replying to now lol. I thought this was the "What's going... protons?" thread to be fair.

Update: A Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse was observed around the time of this CME arrival. While it's an unrelated impact, NOAA is also calling for K7/G3 conditions. I don't recall a frontside event which would be capable of triggering such conditions.

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by Christopher S.
Trimmed clutter

[MinYoongi]

So the CME right now is the farside one? I’m confused @Calder