Philalethes Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 2 uren geleden, VortexSolar Stephane zei: Except that in 2003 there were a hundred satellites in orbit, now there are 2800 It's a point, at least considering that a malfunctioning satellite could e.g. drop to the ground without us knowing very well where, but it's still a rather marginal issue overall. As I mentioned, I believe only a single satellite was permanently damaged beyond repair in the 2003 storms, and that was a really powerful one. If 1 out of a 100 satellites fail completely under such conditions I'd say we don't really have that much to worry about on that front, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 If a satellite malfunctions, it will gradually go into lower orbit and burn up in the atmosphere. Almost everything will burn up so it's not a big risk. But back on topic guys 😉 I've taken another look at this region and sadly I don't see any deltas making it beta-gamma as configuration. Few interesting zones are still there but we'll see how it further evolves. 3181 has a nice delta (beta-delta) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceWeather5464 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 3 Active sunspots. Solar activity is getting exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Check the limb. A new arriver. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 34 minutes ago, hamateur 1953 said: Check the limb. A new arriver. When will it be around the limb enough to see it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hamateur 1953 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Hard to be certain. A guess would be tuesday in the states. At least for the bulk of it. 18 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When will it be around the limb enough to see it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 1 hour ago, hamateur 1953 said: Check the limb. A new arriver. Yeah, that was the one I was talking about. 47 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: When will it be around the limb enough to see it ? In 2-3 days we should have a decent view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWill Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) On 1/5/2023 at 7:37 PM, IlikeAuroras said: Looks like our first major flare of 2023 is an X-flare What a great start to 2023! Pardon me for asking, but doesn't "major flare" mean X-class?? We have already had an M 9 flare... meThinks the first X flare of the year was at less than a week into January is a good sign!! WnA 2 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: If a satellite malfunctions, it will gradually go into lower orbit and burn up in the atmosphere. Almost everything will burn up so it's not a big risk. But back on topic guys 😉 I've taken another look at this region and sadly I don't see any deltas making it beta-gamma as configuration. Few interesting zones are still there but we'll see how it further evolves. 3181 has a nice delta (beta-delta) I'll be brief as this i out s a bit off topic. The truth is, aside from China and India, everything that goes up has a plan for disposal. whike it is true that most everything in LEO, will most likely get slowed by drag on the atmosphere and "burn up", upon reentry. Unfortunately that does not mean that it burns up completely. For examples, the Chinese Space Station came down a couple of years ago. The Chinese didn't imform anyone about its reentry, so it's assumed it was unplanned. I believe the debris field went across part of the pacific, Australia & the Indian Ocean. There was depression tracked on radar all the way down to the water. NASA keeps track of something like 36,000 pieces of space junk. One of th is a bolt, from a Gemini mission. You can see Alan Shepard with his wrench and the bolt he just lost, floating away from him... it's kinda funny, if it wasn't so serious. Most of what's in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will probably burn up. Most and probably - leaves a lot of room. The stuff in higher orbits will take a very long time to renter the atmosphere. They pose a huge risk to anything in those higher orbits. Also, if two pieces of space junk collide way up there, the collision and transfer of momentum could cause one to hit the earth. Whether or not something will burn up in the atmosphere depends upon a number of things like size, materials, velocity and reentry angle to name a few. WnA Edited January 8, 2023 by WildWill 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arjemma Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 On 1/7/2023 at 5:54 PM, Changeling said: Thanks! I've done already the first steps you describe to at least start on the "homework", but the bottom part starting with "To find a delta spot..." you provided me with just that type of information that has eluded me so far! That made it somewhat clearer! At least I know where to start. Thanks for going step by step 😉 Just wanted to add a link that you might find helpful. This is the SDO data gallery where you can produce small movies that are easy to navigate for different instruments. Chose a date like january 7 to january 8 for example. Then under "Telescopes / Wavelengths" you chose the instrument. To look at the magnetism you can for example overlay Composite AIA 171 with HMI Magnetogram which will give you a cool look. This is a really useful link that you can check potential CME's, magnetism, magnetic loops and so on. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ To add to the discussion both 3182 seems very interesting and it will be fun to see the progression. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 Thanks for pointing out the deltas in the other thread and for the gifs @mozy. @Philalethes Bythos! im wondering why noaa is keeping up the 20% x chance for 3182 when it seems to lose deltas / complexity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Changeling Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 18 hours ago, arjemma said: Just wanted to add a link that you might find helpful. This is the SDO data gallery where you can produce small movies that are easy to navigate for different instruments. Chose a date like january 7 to january 8 for example. Then under "Telescopes / Wavelengths" you chose the instrument. To look at the magnetism you can for example overlay Composite AIA 171 with HMI Magnetogram which will give you a cool look. This is a really useful link that you can check potential CME's, magnetism, magnetic loops and so on. https://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/aiahmi/ To add to the discussion both 3182 seems very interesting and it will be fun to see the progression. Oh, nice! This is great, thank you! 👍 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 9, 2023 Share Posted January 9, 2023 In latest imagery there's again a delta spot, it's in the trailing section of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: In latest imagery there's again a delta spot, it's in the trailing section of the region. Noaa is still stating this region has a Delta in their newest forecast. Do you guys agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Noaa is still stating this region has a Delta in their newest forecast. Do you guys agree? I'm gonna say no, they're separating from each other so barely even in the same penumbral area anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, mozy said: I'm gonna say no, they're separating from each other so barely even in the same penumbral area anymore. Thanks Mozy. Is this the Region they mean with "delta" thats drifting apart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Thanks Mozy. Is this the Region they mean with "delta" thats drifting apart? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 ah well, i was close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: ah well, i was close. To be fair, the region you circled almost was a delta aswell earlier, but that area has also decayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesterface23 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 There's a woops in there, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/r3-strong-hf-radio-blackout-150pm-est-x19-flare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 9 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There's a woops in there, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/r3-strong-hf-radio-blackout-150pm-est-x19-flare ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 12 minutes ago, Jesterface23 said: There's a woops in there, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/r3-strong-hf-radio-blackout-150pm-est-x19-flare ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Does this Region still have a Delta? I was unable to find one. I would classify it as "Beta Gamma". What do you guys say? Solen said it still has deltas, but that was at 07UTC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 minute ago, MinYoongi said: Does this Region still have a Delta? I was unable to find one. I would classify it as "Beta Gamma". What do you guys say? Solen said it still has deltas, but that was at 07UTC. No deltas as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, mozy said: No deltas as of now. Why does noaa still go with a 10% X Chance? The Synoptic map was made at 14UTC roughly. Maybe there were deltas present? @Orneno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sam Warfel Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 21 minutes ago, MinYoongi said: Why does noaa still go with a 10% X Chance? The Synoptic map was made at 14UTC roughly. Maybe there were deltas present? @Orneno Perhaps, but NOAA is always just always overestimating flare chances. It’s probably because they serve as a warning to satellites/communications and electrical grids and things, so better to be safe than sorry? Better to brace for a flare and not get one, than to have one surprise people and damage stuff? I don’t really know, that’s just my guess when you think about who their audience is. Edited January 10, 2023 by Orneno 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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