MinYoongi Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Yeah I saw it but as it was still close to the limb I was cautious not to mention it 🙈 Don’t jinx it 😛 to me it’s not quite a delta yet… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 To me the region is confusing. Not much high C activity, no m class flares, but an X class flare without deltas? And 20% chance from noaa without delta? @Vancanneyt Sander @Philalethes Bythos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 Pretty sure the region had a delta or two during the X-flare but as we've seen before, the deltas can suddenly shrink & disappear after big flares. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isatsuki San Posted January 6, 2023 Author Share Posted January 6, 2023 50 minutes ago, mozy said: Estoy bastante seguro de que la región tuvo un delta o dos durante la llamarada X, pero como hemos visto antes, los deltas pueden encogerse y desaparecer repentinamente después de grandes llamaradas. I was at the time of flare x and I can confirm that I did not see a delta but the part that says it was going was in the extreme, so that part could decomposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 9 minutes ago, Isatsuki San said: I was at the time of flare x and I can confirm that I did not see a delta but the part that says it was going was in the extreme, so that part could decomposite I was also looking, but in my opinion the region was still a bit too far at the limb to be able to spot deltas properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 6, 2023 Share Posted January 6, 2023 6 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Does the region have a delta? @Philalethes Bythos @mozy At the time of writing this I don't see any. The region doesn't actually look that complex or active prima facie, and the X-flare was very brief and non-eruptive, so might not be what we've all been waiting for. However, this must've been the region that released the large CME beyond the limb earlier, no? Oh well, as always we'll just have to wait and see, we'll get a better view once it moves a bit more too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedreamon Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 It could be a decent player, but we'll have to see when it's more centered. I saw SpaceWeather.com say it's a "dangerous sunspot," but that could be fearmonger-speak for "there's probably gonna be a lot of flaring over the next two weeks from it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Bedreamon said: It could be a decent player, but we'll have to see when it's more centered. I saw SpaceWeather.com say it's a "dangerous sunspot," but that could be fearmonger-speak for "there's probably gonna be a lot of flaring over the next two weeks from it". I wouldn’t trust Spaceweather.com. It has a bad record recently of inconsistent and hyperbolic statements Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher S. Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Tormentius said: I wouldn’t trust Spaceweather.com. It has a bad record recently of inconsistent and hyperbolic statements *stirs suddenly* Well, we don't have to worry about that here. We're a bit more... excited about stuff, than cynical lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormentius Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Christopher S. said: *stirs suddenly* Well, we don't have to worry about that here. We're a bit more... excited about stuff, than cynical lol. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade. I was just speaking about the wording of SpaceWeather.com in calling the AR dangerous. This site has been excepted for its optimistic and excited outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solarflaretracker200 Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Tormentius said: SpaceWeather.com in calling the AR dangerous They call Mclass solar flares dangerous. They call solar wind dangerous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 The x Class chance for this region was upped by noaa again in the newest synoptic map. Any changes that justify that? To me it doesn’t look that complex and I don’t see a delta currently. @Philalethes Bythos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 uur geleden, MinYoongi zei: The x Class chance for this region was upped by noaa again in the newest synoptic map. To me it seems not correct. If there's a 20% chance for an X, there should be 70% chance for an M (which seems logic). 1 uur geleden, MinYoongi zei: I don’t see a delta currently. Well, I do 😉 but it's a tiny one and it's far away from other spots so don't get hyped In other news, region 3183 also has a delta 😉 Not that pretty big and close to other spots but we might see some activity there as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: The x Class chance for this region was upped by noaa again in the newest synoptic map. Any changes that justify that? To me it doesn’t look that complex and I don’t see a delta currently. @Philalethes Bythos There is that small hint of one pointed out in the post above, but it's indeed very small. Seems to recently have developed, though, and the tiny positive umbra is more visible now than when I checked a few hours ago. Maybe something is brewing. 48 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: To me it seems not correct. If there's a 20% chance for an X, there should be 70% chance for an M (which seems logic). Does this always or typically follow? I can at least in principle imagine situations where the chances of M and X are closer to each other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 2 uren geleden, Philalethes Bythos zei: Does this always or typically follow? I can at least in principle imagine situations where the chances of M and X are closer to each other. Well it’s my third SC I follow so I’ve seen a lot of big regions. Regions with complex magnetic layout with a potential for X-class are with odds that are pretty low for X and big for M. That’s because a complex region has more odds of producing M than X because X is more rare. Just before the Halloween storm X-class flares happened in 2003 the odds where 80% chance for M and 40% for X, only to rise to 90% chance M and 50% chance X after the X17. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Changeling Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 (edited) Thanks for interesting & educating comments, guys! The Sun's so interesting and with new science & tech still coming along, I think I owe myself to know a little more. I'm of the opinion science should be common knowledge, at least the basics. With dear old Sun being our source of life... everybody should know a little about its life. Eh... Do you use any pronoun for the Sun, btw? 🤔😄 To clarify where I'm at, I've read some without wanting to comment or anything. How I understand it, a delta field needs to be present to produce the large flares like X flares, and that you determine class from the spot's looks. I've noticed there are little lines and coloration changes, but can anyone please sum up in simple exactly what you're looking for? And I mean details, because I'd still say I'm a newbie! Edited January 9, 2023 by Changeling typo; more typos, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancanneyt Sander Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 48 minuten geleden, Changeling zei: To clarify where I'm at, I've read some without wanting to comment or anything. How I understand it a delta field needs to be present to produce the large flavers like X flares, and that you determine class from the spot's looks. I've noticed there are little lines and coloration changes, but can anyone please sum up in simple exactly what you're looking for? And I mean details, because I'd still say I'm a newbie! Read our help article the magnetic classification of sunspots. There you’ll learn what magnetic classifications exists and their definition. Eventually you’ll learn that a delta spot is a spot of opposite polarity within the penumbral area of a spot. If you put spots with opposite polarity closer to each other, they’ll have the capacity to produce strong solar flares, even the strongest (if magnetic shear is strong). To find a delta spot, you’ll need to overlay/compare the visual solar disk with the magnetogram of the solar disk, if you find a spot with the above definition you’ve found a delta. You’ll learn from experience following solar activity here on SWL and the forum 😉 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Changeling Posted January 7, 2023 Share Posted January 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Read our help article the magnetic classification of sunspots. There you’ll learn what magnetic classifications exists and their definition. Eventually you’ll learn that a delta spot is a spot of opposite polarity within the penumbral area of a spot. If you put spots with opposite polarity closer to each other, they’ll have the capacity to produce strong solar flares, even the strongest (if magnetic shear is strong). To find a delta spot, you’ll need to overlay/compare the visual solar disk with the magnetogram of the solar disk, if you find a spot with the above definition you’ve found a delta. You’ll learn from experience following solar activity here on SWL and the forum 😉 Thanks! I've done already the first steps you describe to at least start on the "homework", but the bottom part starting with "To find a delta spot..." you provided me with just that type of information that has eluded me so far! That made it somewhat clearer! At least I know where to start. Thanks for going step by step 😉 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 10 hours ago, Vancanneyt Sander said: Well it’s my third SC I follow so I’ve seen a lot of big regions. Regions with complex magnetic layout with a potential for X-class are with odds that are pretty low for X and big for M. That’s because a complex region has more odds of producing M than X because X is more rare. Just before the Halloween storm X-class flares happened in 2003 the odds where 80% chance for M and 40% for X, only to rise to 90% chance M and 50% chance X after the X17. Yeah, I imagine it's pretty much always going to be like that. Their prediction is probably just off, but I guess I can still see in principle how the probabilities could be closer (i.e. a prediction that if it first flares, it really flares). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozy Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 This region is starting to look a lot more interesting now, I spot multiple small deltas forming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZoeB96 Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 It's a β-γ-δ now!!! Might get a good show from this AR while earth facing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinYoongi Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 6 hours ago, mozy said: This region is starting to look a lot more interesting now, I spot multiple small deltas forming. Where? @Philalethes Bythosdo you have a gif for me? ☺️ „developed and has at least 3 magnetic delta configurations, the strongest one in a southern penumbra. Major flares, including X flares, are possible.“ I don’t really see them to me they look intermixed but not delta-y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEAurora Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 I don't know if I see the "deltas", maybe if I squint hard enough I can see hints of them forming in the southern spots where there is a lot of mixing going on. Regardless, the spot is definitely looking more complex than it did a day ago. It is exiting to see the background flux rising into the mid-to-upper C range. Though at least some of that increased activities looks like its probably coming from a spot emerging from the limb... Something new to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philalethes Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 (edited) 2 hours ago, MinYoongi said: Where? @Philalethes Bythosdo you have a gif for me? ☺️ Yeah, I'm still making them "automatically" whenever there's an interesting region around (I just specify the coordinates and let the computer do the rest). You can bookmark the link I've shared earlier too and check if I've updated it, since it will always be the same url by design (download the gif to zoom in, since Drive apparently doesn't play it if you do there). The deltas were forming in the bottom left area, but it seems to have broken up again now, so there's hardly anything left right now. Perhaps some will reform later. That being said, while the flux remains high, it now seems that the recent M-flares came from a region beyond the limb near the same latitude, which you can see just rotating into view. Edited January 8, 2023 by Philalethes Bythos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VortexSolar Stephane Posted January 8, 2023 Share Posted January 8, 2023 Op 6/1/2023 om 04:25, Orneno zei: 100 %. Il n'est même pas dirigé vers la terre. Et même si c'était le cas, nous irions très bien. Pour le contexte, nous avons eu de nombreuses éruptions X juste ce cycle solaire jusqu'à présent. En 2003, nous avons pris un X45 et n'avons eu aucun problème. Ils ne sont pas dangereux. Impressionnant! Except that in 2003 there were a hundred satellites in orbit, now there are 2800 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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