CME, G1-G3 storm predicted

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

You have to be careful reading that CME scoreboard. There’s a lot of predictions on there that aren’t very reliable. When in doubt, always look at SWPC/NOAA or European equivalents. 

It looks like the CME is on track to arrive later today as predicted or maybe a bit early, the EPAM is starting to rise (thanks Flareguy for pointing it out)

when was it predicted by noaa?

3 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

That's just one of the predictions and as stated clearly model runs might be incorrect due to the very faint character of the CME. In only expect a moderate event nothing more.

yeah i was just confused. I also dont get why they publish that predicition numerous times then, if they already agree on it most likely not being accurate? 

thank you for explaining everything once again.

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

when was it predicted by noaa?

00 UTC on the 23rd. 

[MinYoongi]

Just now, Orneno said:

00 UTC on the 23rd. 

isnt the epam rising now not a bit early then? 

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

I also dont get why they publish that predicition numerous times then, if they already agree on it most likely not being accurate?

Yes, that CME scoreboard is not intended for the general public, since you need some background to be able to tell which claims are more likely and know how to interpret them. 

[Flareguy18]

5 minutes ago, Orneno said:

It looks like the CME is on track to arrive later today as predicted or maybe a bit early, the EPAM is starting to rise (thanks Flareguy for pointing it out)

Haha you beat me to it!! I guess I'm not fast enough with posting on here 😜 

[Sam Warfel]

Just now, MinYoongi said:

isnt the epam rising now not a bit early then? 

It can rise several hours before the CME, but the CME may also be a few hours early. 

Just now, Flareguy18 said:

Haha you beat me to it!! I guess I'm not fast enough with posting on here 😜 

I am speed

[MinYoongi]

im confused too because they say its two cme? 

[Sam Warfel]

I don’t know, I only saw one that was Earth-directed 

[Flareguy18]

2 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

isnt the epam rising now not a bit early then? 

It could be a bit early, hard to say. Sometimes, it will rise for several hours before anything happens. I'd say we are either right on track or maybe a bit early for CME arrival.

(And now I just realized @Orneno just said that, he really is faster than me LOL)

3 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I am speed

Teach me your ways

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Orneno said:

I don’t know, I only saw one that was Earth-directed 

If they are basically openly agreeing with the fact that the model isn’t giving a proper depiction, posting it with Kp 8-9 seems to do more harm than good. And again, I don’t know how the models work or their procedures, but basically taking a “welp, this is what the model says” approach can be really harmful for this field. Many are forgetting that the model isn’t for operational use and that models aren’t perfect.

[Sam Warfel]

2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

Teach me your ways

Reload the page a lot and type fast 

[MinYoongi]

21 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

It could be a bit early, hard to say. Sometimes, it will rise for several hours before anything happens. I'd say we are either right on track or maybe a bit early for CME arrival.

(And now I just realized @Orneno just said that, he really is faster than me LOL)

Teach me your ways

but not much early? Because it should come in 5-6 hours or so (23UTC i think?) and its already rising? have you seen that before? I never even watched EPAM.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

25 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

yeah i was just confused. I also dont get why they publish that predicition numerous times then, if they already agree on it most likely not being accurate? 

The CME Scoreboard is for scientific use only and is a platform for automated model runs by various space weather forecasters and manual space weather forecast by specialised scientist. Its not a platform for the normal people who can draw wrong conclusions. It’s a good overview on how the scientists made their forecast, but there can be too optimistic forecasts or even storms in a glass of water. So ultimately you’ll only need to look at the average of all the forecasts and even the. It can be way wrong (because we don’t have enough data about CME’s when they travel through space). 

[Sam Warfel]

@Vancanneyt Sanderhow long before a CME arrives does the EPAM start to rise, on average? I haven’t seen enough strong CMEs to know. 

[Flareguy18]

7 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

but not much early? Because it should come in 5-6 hours or so (23UTC i think?) and its already rising? have you seen that before? I never even watched EPAM.

I don't have much experience with it either, but I have watched it a few times. It will typically rise ahead of CMEs (usually the more potent ones) at least a few to several hours before the shockwave arrives. I wouldn't expect it to be dramatically earlier than expected, if at all.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

6 minuten geleden, Orneno zei:

@Vancanneyt Sanderhow long before a CME arrives does the EPAM start to rise, on average? I haven’t seen enough strong CMEs to know. 

Depends on the CME, it can already rise shortly after the solar flare (especially when a proton event is associated particles can be already on the rise). In the help section we have a very nice graph With the phases in EPAM 😉 

currently EPAM has a slow rise but at this rate it can still take more than 6-12 hours before it peaks.

[MinYoongi]

2 minutes ago, Flareguy18 said:

 It will typically rise ahead of CMEs (usually the more potent ones) 

but wasnt it a really diffuse one? i had to look at the difference pictures to even see it.

1 minute ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 currently EPAM has a slow rise but at this rate it can still take more than 6-12 hours before it peaks.

Okay, so the prediciton can still be spot on/ a bit earlier but not much?  Thank you! 

i frequently forget about Epam and Stereo in general. It was good in solar minimum because plastic made forecasting coronal holes easier.

[Flareguy18]

1 minute ago, MinYoongi said:

but wasnt it a really diffuse one? i had to look at the difference pictures to even see it.

It was diffuse in terms of its density, but overall it is still a relatively fast one and seems to still have a well-defined "shockwave". It can still pack some potency despite it lacking plasma.

[MinYoongi]

1 minute ago, Flareguy18 said:

It was diffuse in terms of its density, but overall it is still a relatively fast one and seems to still have a well-defined "shockwave". It can still pack some potency despite it lacking plasma.

i wonder if it contains a flux rope. Read a bit about it on twitter.

if i understood it wrong some even think its just a shock and not a full cme, but i'm not good in interepreting highly scientific stuff.

[Sam Warfel]

17 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

Depends on the CME, it can already rise shortly after the solar flare (especially when a proton event is associated particles can be already on the rise). In the help section we have a very nice graph With the phases in EPAM 😉 

currently EPAM has a slow rise but at this rate it can still take more than 6-12 hours before it peaks.

Thank you that’s very helpful 

[MinYoongi]

13 minutes ago, Orneno said:

Thank you that’s very helpful 

I just noticed it was in rise for TWO days and not 2 Hours lmao

[Sam Warfel]

3 minutes ago, MinYoongi said:

I just noticed it was in rise for TWO days and not 2 Hours lmao

More like 16 hours maybe 

[MinYoongi]

19 minutes ago, Orneno said:

More like 16 hours maybe 

Oh, thats a long time too. I thought it rises like 2-3 hours before.

but that would indicate that we're right on track.

[Vancanneyt Sander]

14 minuten geleden, MinYoongi zei:

Oh, thats a long time too. I thought it rises like 2-3 hours before.

but that would indicate that we're right on track.

Few hours before it arrives you’ll see a more sharp rise, when it peaks after that sharper rise the CME will arrive.

and remember, as always with CMEs, the predicted arrival time is plus and minus 6 hours and even then it’s a game of waiting and it even can arrive very late 😉 CMEs are never on time 😂

[MinYoongi]

8 minutes ago, Vancanneyt Sander said:

 

and remember, as always with CMEs, the predicted arrival time is plus and minus 6 hours and even then it’s a game of waiting and it even can arrive very late 😉 CMEs are never on time 😂

very true words.  I remember that with one cme the arrival forecast was spot on but thats so rare and must be really hard to hit the nail on the head.